Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Rowan]

Unless McCain has at least a Kerry-type game changer, I think it's over for him.

Very premature. Rasmussen will be back down to a 2-3 point lead for Obama tomorrow, and the state polling isn't looking out of reach. To call this over already is way premature.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.

[© Tweed the Younger]

[J. J.]

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.

Oh PLEEZE, until the Oprah appearance, Bush was consistently losing to Gore.  Remember the RATS ad?  That late September bounce was Oprah.

[Vasall des Midas]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

Gore was never ahead for even a whole week, just sporadically. Bush led 95% of the time, and then Gore surged at the last minute.

lmao, Bush held a steady lead on Gore for most of the campaign.  the only times Gore was even or ahead came right after the DNC and in the final week, aided by the late-breaking Bush DUI story.  JJ should probably stop posting here and stick to things he's better at, presuming they exist.

Oh PLEEZE, until the Oprah appearance, Bush was consistently losing to Gore.  Remember the RATS ad?  That late September bounce was Oprah.

what?  look at the graph.  from mid-September on Gore never led (until election day).  you claimed Gore had a 3-7% lead a month before the election when he was in reality down by mid-single digits.  I know you don't like facts, but this is a difficult stretch to pull off.

re-reading your post, I'm not 100% sure that you aren't joking, but I'll assume that you're being serious.

[J. J.]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The mid to late September peek and the smaller peek in October.  You also have to remember that it was an earlier convention.

[True Democrat]

Unless McCain has at least a Kerry-type game changer, I think it's over for him.

You said IIRC that the debates may sway your vote (?) How do things stand at the moment?

Unless McCain changes something about his campaign or how he presents himself, I may just vote for Obama.

I desperately want to vote for McCain (especially the McCain of 2000).  I just don't know if I can.

My heart says McCain, but my head is starting to lean towards Obama.

[riceowl]

Things should be tied by Friday.

Whether they should, or whether they shouldn't, isn't the point. 

[Vasall des Midas]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The chart is using the media color scheme, not the sane color scheme. Look again. (Besides, Gore didn't lose the election anyhow. )

[© Tweed the Younger]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The chart is using the media color scheme, not the sane color scheme. Look again. (Besides, Gore didn't lose the election anyhow. )

that's the only justification for what he's saying, that JJ is reading the graph as the inverse of what it really is.  (and the graph of course tracks PV, which Gore did win, so there's no necessary)

[J. J.]

In other words, J.J. got the year right, he just got the wrong name.

I think the last candidate to lead by this much and lose was Gore, as the chart shows. 

The chart is using the media color scheme, not the sane color scheme. Look again. (Besides, Gore didn't lose the election anyhow. )

that's the only justification for what he's saying, that JJ is reading the graph as the inverse of what it really is.  (and the graph of course tracks PV, which Gore did win, so there's no necessary)

Gore is blue:



What do you call that blue peek in mid September.  It was followed by Bush surge (Oprah) and then a slight uptick for Gore.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Original quote:

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

The last time Gore was up by 3% was mid-September.  He was never up by anywhere near 3% in the final month, let alone consistently.

[J. J.]

Original quote:

Who exactly was the last candidate to lose with a 3-7% lead 1 month before the election ?

Gore, I think.

The last time Gore was up by 3% was mid-September.  He was never up by anywhere near 3% in the final month, let alone consistently.

Since we are not in the last month, as of yet, I preferred at this time. 

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I'm reasonably sure Tender Branson's post (maybe my monitor is wrong) says "1 month," not "45 days."

In fact, Gore didn't even lead by 3 after September 26th, 2000.

[Ronnie]

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)

McCain really needs to win the debate tonight.

[nick]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

[J. J.]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

[Rowan]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

[J. J.]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

I didn't see that. 

[Senator Sbane]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

[J. J.]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

[Senator Sbane]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

I was talking specifically about the focus group. I watched the CNN focus group so I know the winner there and I heard even the Fox focus group thought Obama won. We will see what the overall public thought in the next few days. I think Mccain did better than many on this forum think.

[VP Duke]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

I was talking specifically about the focus group. I watched the CNN focus group so I know the winner there and I heard even the Fox focus group thought Obama won. We will see what the overall public thought in the next few days. I think Mccain did better than many on this forum think.

That Luntz group on FoxNews contained no true undecided voters when the people who felt Obama won started spouting Obama talking points like "McCain looked just like George Bush tonight." If you've bought into that, you aren't an undecided voter.

[Senator Sbane]

Just curious... are there any live focus groups rating the debate?  link?

CNN did it live.

Did you notice how the CNN "Indies" seemed to move exactly as the Democratic line did? I bet they weren't actual indies.

Or the indies liked Obama better on the issues. But no its a CONZPIRACCY!!!!

Btw Obama won amongst the Fox focus group as well.

The most recent polling put it at a tie.

I was talking specifically about the focus group. I watched the CNN focus group so I know the winner there and I heard even the Fox focus group thought Obama won. We will see what the overall public thought in the next few days. I think Mccain did better than many on this forum think.

That Luntz group on FoxNews contained no true undecided voters when the people who felt Obama won started spouting Obama talking points like "McCain looked just like George Bush tonight." If you've bought into that, you aren't an undecided voter.

I don't know about that. Maybe he didn't feel like that before but his opinion changed tonight? I am sure he has heard of the attack before and perhaps he saw that become true tonight? I didn't see it so I cannot comment further.