Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Nym90]

Wow, did not expect the TRADITIONAL model to be showing this sort of result.

wow.

Have we actually gotten a good explanation on how the Traditional Model differs from the other models?

The traditional model takes into consideration both past voting history and currently stated voting intentions. The expanded model considers only currently stated intentions.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

[Iosif]

There was humour?

No, "h-u-m-or-r" since this an American election.  You just didn't get it, but what else is new?

Humorr?

I doubt J.J. won the Mensa spelling bee.

That made me laugh a lot more than it should.

[J. J.]

There was humour?

No, "h-u-m-or-r" since this an American election.  You just didn't get it, but what else is new?

Humorr?

I doubt J.J. won the Mensa spelling bee.

No, but I do make typos.

[Nym90]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

He's got us right where he wants us.

[Reaganfan]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

[Sarnstrom]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

[Rowan]

This is what happens when you don't weight your polls.

[seamjay]

Obama and McCain: Mamba and Cocaine Get Anagrammed in Run Up to Election!
http://www.quazen.com/Games/Puzzles/Obama-and-Mccain-Mamba-and-Cocaine-Get-Anagrammed-in-Run-Up-to-Election.324789

[J. J.]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

He actually is, which is why we've been discussing PA. 

[Eraserhead]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

He actually is, which is why we've been discussing PA. 

Yep, candidates down double digits in the Gallup poll often win the election. Yup, yup.

[J. J.]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

He actually is, which is why we've been discussing PA. 

Yep, candidates down double digits in the Gallup poll often win the election. Yup, yup.

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

[Kalimantan]

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

God you're such a liar

[Mr.Jones]

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

Cause he is a smart man, and like any smart man in a dual, doesnt want to give his opponent an iota of chance.

[Lief 🗽]

JJ apparently believes that candidates who are ahead generally stop campaigning in the final week.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - November 2, 2008

RV
Obama: 52% (nc)
McCain: 41% (nc)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 52% (nc)
McCain: 43% (+1)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 51% (-1)
McCain: 43% (+1)

[Ronnie]

I don't think Obama will win by this much, but it's possible.

[BlueSwan]

Ahhhh....I love reading the daily Gallup polll. So comforting.

However, it does appear a bit strange that Obamas numbers are way better with Gallup than with any of the other trackers. Only the non-trackers have numbers that are that good for Obama (or even better).

[Edu]

Obama just needs all the Gore states + NH + Colorado to win. He seems to be up by a good amount in NH and Colorado  and he's doing all right in all the Gore states.

McCain strategy seems to be concentrating on Pennsylvania, so why would Obama let him gain points by stop campaigning in the state?. It seems logical to me that if McCain is specifically targeting the state to win then Obama should spend money and time there to try and neutralize any effect McCain might be having.

Obama has money and he doesn't really need Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia or Arizona to win the election. So both candidates campaigning there heavily doesn't strike as too odd in my opinion.

[they don't love you like i love you]

What a comeback by McCain, to be down double digits.

If John McCain posted on the Atlas...atleast he wouldn't have frickin' hieroglyphics as his screenname. He's coming back...GET OVER IT!

Well he better get on that "coming back" strategy of his because the polls open in like 70 hours.

He actually is, which is why we've been discussing PA. 

Yep, candidates down double digits in the Gallup poll often win the election. Yup, yup.

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

Why wouldn't he? It doesn't hurt him in any way. Just because Obama's ahead doesn't mean he should just sit down and forget everything or instead focus on Idaho or something.

[J. J.]

Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

God you're such a liar

No, I'm telling what was reported on MSNBC this morning.

I also believe that campaigns with good ground games will have their volunteers in place more than 72 hours before the election. 

[Lunar]

Because he's trying to motivate his troops across the country by pretending he's on the verge of losing.

[J. J.]

Because he's trying to motivate his troops across the country by pretending he's on the verge of losing.

It could be, but the call for volunteers 48 hours before the polls open is pretty stunning.

[Lunar]

Because he's trying to motivate his troops across the country by pretending he's on the verge of losing.

It could be, but the call for volunteers 48 hours before the polls open is pretty stunning.

Not really.

But you like to interpret every event as something that's bad for Obama.  I'd like your final prediction on PA's margin sometime, yo.

[J. J.]

Because he's trying to motivate his troops across the country by pretending he's on the verge of losing.

It could be, but the call for volunteers 48 hours before the polls open is pretty stunning.

Not really.

But you like to interpret every event as something that's bad for Obama.  I'd like your final prediction on PA's margin sometime, yo.

Lunar, I've been saying PA would be close for about 5 weeks.  I've also expressed doubt of Obama's ground game effectiveness here.

I don't change them, so it's still Obama by 1.5 points.  I'll bet I'm going to end up with a 3.5 MOE of that.