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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 177773 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #1875 on: November 02, 2008, 02:19:51 pm »
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Because he's trying to motivate his troops across the country by pretending he's on the verge of losing.

It could be, but the call for volunteers 48 hours before the polls open is pretty stunning.

Not really.

But you like to interpret every event as something that's bad for Obama.  I'd like your final prediction on PA's margin sometime, yo.

Lunar, I've been saying PA would be close for about 5 weeks.  I've also expressed doubt of Obama's ground game effectiveness here.

I don't change them, so it's still Obama by 1.5 points.  I'll bet I'm going to end up with a 3.5 MOE of that.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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« Reply #1876 on: November 02, 2008, 02:28:51 pm »
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Wait, predictions have statistical MoEs now?  Tongue
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Lunar
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« Reply #1877 on: November 02, 2008, 02:31:54 pm »
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Alright J.J., we'll see who is closer. I can wait two days, thanks.

Wait, predictions have statistical MoEs now?  Tongue

Some posters need them more than others Smiley
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Meeker
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« Reply #1878 on: November 02, 2008, 02:34:22 pm »
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We're still trying to get volunteers for Election Day in our offices here in Washington - why the hell would we stop trying to find more?
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J. J.
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« Reply #1879 on: November 02, 2008, 03:45:41 pm »
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Alright J.J., we'll see who is closer. I can wait two days, thanks.

Wait, predictions have statistical MoEs now?  Tongue

Some posters need them more than others Smiley

Give me a break, I made the prediction in September.  I'm still expecting Obama to take the state.

We're still trying to get volunteers for Election Day in our offices here in Washington - why the hell would we stop trying to find more?

Meeker, did you send out an urgent e-mail this morning to get them?
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Iosif
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« Reply #1880 on: November 02, 2008, 03:59:38 pm »
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He put up the bat signal.
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J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.


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« Reply #1881 on: November 02, 2008, 04:10:32 pm »
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Alright J.J., we'll see who is closer. I can wait two days, thanks.

Wait, predictions have statistical MoEs now?  Tongue

Some posters need them more than others Smiley

Give me a break, I made the prediction in September.  I'm still expecting Obama to take the state.

We're still trying to get volunteers for Election Day in our offices here in Washington - why the hell would we stop trying to find more?

Meeker, did you send out an urgent e-mail this morning to get them?

If you're going to update your predictions to have big MoEs later on, why not just make new ones?  That defeats the purpose of predicting early.  You gave yourself a seven-point leeway on margin, that's kind of ridiculous.
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Edu
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« Reply #1882 on: November 02, 2008, 04:14:05 pm »
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Meeker, did you send out an urgent e-mail this morning to get them?

But McCain isn't heavily contesting Washington. That's a difference i think.

I think it would be foolish for the Obama campaign to ignore an important state where the other candidate is concentrating on, even if he's up ahead by 7 or whatever. And making things "urgent" might help motivate the Obama supporters, i don't see anything strange about it.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1883 on: November 02, 2008, 05:47:40 pm »
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Alright J.J., we'll see who is closer. I can wait two days, thanks.

Wait, predictions have statistical MoEs now?  Tongue

Some posters need them more than others Smiley

Give me a break, I made the prediction in September.  I'm still expecting Obama to take the state.

We're still trying to get volunteers for Election Day in our offices here in Washington - why the hell would we stop trying to find more?

Meeker, did you send out an urgent e-mail this morning to get them?

If you're going to update your predictions to have big MoEs later on, why not just make new ones?  That defeats the purpose of predicting early.  You gave yourself a seven-point leeway on margin, that's kind of ridiculous.

I think it's going to be close, so I'll actually stick with the 1.5 points.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #1884 on: November 02, 2008, 05:48:31 pm »
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JJ apparently believes that candidates who are ahead generally stop campaigning in the final week.

Only if they're named Tom Dewey Tongue
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #1885 on: November 02, 2008, 05:58:34 pm »
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Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

God you're such a liar

No, I'm telling what was reported on MSNBC this morning.

I also believe that campaigns with good ground games will have their volunteers in place more than 72 hours before the election. 

I think you're mistaken JJ.

I meant, you're a liar that you are in MENSA.

Because, people have to be intelligent to get into MENSA.
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Iosif
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« Reply #1886 on: November 02, 2008, 06:34:05 pm »
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Not in the Pennsylvania branch.
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J.J., I wanted to congratulate you on your assignment "A Typical Day In My Life". I think you did a superb job with it. So good that I think I'll share it with everyone else.


J. J.
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« Reply #1887 on: November 02, 2008, 07:22:24 pm »
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Why is a candidate doing so well sending out urgent requests for more volunteers. especially one with a good ground game?

God you're such a liar

No, I'm telling what was reported on MSNBC this morning.

I also believe that campaigns with good ground games will have their volunteers in place more than 72 hours before the election. 

I think you're mistaken JJ.

I meant, you're a liar that you are in MENSA.

Because, people have to be intelligent to get into MENSA.

Well, I am a life member of Mensa, note that it isn't capitalized.  I doubt if you are eligible.

Here is the link to the e-mail:

http://www.politickerpa.com/wallyedgepa/2466/obama-campaign-says-not-hitting-targets

Text: 

There's an urgent need for volunteers right now at our Last Call for Change phonebanks.

We aren't reaching our targets, and we're facing a last-minute challenge from the McCain campaign in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.

You can make a big difference by calling Pennsylvania voters and telling them their polling location.

Find the Last Call for Change phonebank near you and sign up for a time that works for you.

Pennsylvania is McCain's last stand. His campaign is fighting hard in the Keystone state because it's their best path to victory.

They're spending a fortune, and McCain himself is spending a lot of time there.

We need you to fight back right now.

You'll be calling Obama supporters, telling them their polling location, and making sure they cast their vote for change in a crucial battleground state.

Find your nearest Last Call for Change phonebank and bring a couple of friends with you.

There are just two days left now. We're seeing a race that's getting tighter and tighter. We need you now more than ever.   
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Kalimantan
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« Reply #1888 on: November 02, 2008, 07:46:29 pm »
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Well, I am a life member of Mensa, note that it isn't capitalized.  I doubt if you are eligible.


I don't believe you.

You argue that a candidate for president should stop trying to get his vote out 3 days before the election because he is ahead. The worst thing is, you believe this to be true.

If you're in mensa, the only qualification is whether you can pay the membership fee.
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Night Man
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« Reply #1889 on: November 02, 2008, 07:48:30 pm »
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Yeah man, were paranoid. That's why we are still trying to get the vote out in Iowa and Colorado.
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« Reply #1890 on: November 02, 2008, 08:01:59 pm »
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The lady I was canvassing with today got a call from her daughter at the time, who was also canvassing for GOTV. And her daughter lives in Brooklyn.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1891 on: November 02, 2008, 08:06:13 pm »
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Well, I am a life member of Mensa, note that it isn't capitalized.  I doubt if you are eligible.


I don't believe you.

You argue that a candidate for president should stop trying to get his vote out 3 days before the election because he is ahead. The worst thing is, you believe this to be true.

No, I argue that you really should have your volunteers in place more than 60 hours prior to election day.  

Quote
If you're in mensa, the only qualification is whether you can pay the membership fee.



Weather or not you believe me is irrelevant.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
memphis
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« Reply #1892 on: November 02, 2008, 08:09:51 pm »
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Could this thread get any more petty? OMG, you can't be teh smart!!11 Yes, I can too.......
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I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
Lunar
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« Reply #1893 on: November 02, 2008, 08:13:04 pm »
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http://www.mensaboutique.com/mensa_gear.htm

For a mere $9 more your license plate can be framed:
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1894 on: November 02, 2008, 08:15:19 pm »
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Could this thread get any more petty? OMG, you can't be teh smart!!11 Yes, I can too.......

especially when a 46-year-old feels the need to actively take part in a dick-waving contest
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #1895 on: November 02, 2008, 08:18:02 pm »
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Of course I believe you're in mensa JJ (afterall, that bumper sticker is irrefutable proof)

and because you're in mensa you should be able to recognise that I'm pointing out the discrepancy between your being a member of mensa and the idiotic, illogical posts that you come up with.

Unfortunately it appears that being a republican hack usurps even intelligence.
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Meeker
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« Reply #1896 on: November 02, 2008, 08:21:36 pm »
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We're still trying to get volunteers for Election Day in our offices here in Washington - why the hell would we stop trying to find more?

Meeker, did you send out an urgent e-mail this morning to get them?

We did last night.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1897 on: November 02, 2008, 08:30:53 pm »
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Could this thread get any more petty? OMG, you can't be teh smart!!11 Yes, I can too.......

especially when a 46-year-old feels the need to actively take part in a dick-waving contest

No, merely stating facts.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #1898 on: November 02, 2008, 08:32:56 pm »
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http://www.mensaboutique.com/mensa_gear.htm

For a mere $9 more your license plate can be framed:


The bumper stickers were about $2.50, IIRC.  This, however, is an example of applied intelligence.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
J. J.
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« Reply #1899 on: November 02, 2008, 08:34:45 pm »
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We're still trying to get volunteers for Election Day in our offices here in Washington - why the hell would we stop trying to find more?

Meeker, did you send out an urgent e-mail this morning to get them?

We did last night.

The only one I've seen, specifically asking for volunteers was for PA.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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