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Author Topic: Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 179666 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #1900 on: November 02, 2008, 08:40:12 pm »
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http://www.mensaboutique.com/mensa_gear.htm

For a mere $9 more your license plate can be framed:


The bumper stickers were about $2.50, IIRC.  This, however, is an example of applied intelligence.

I was trying to make a subtle jab saying that anyone can buy these stickers Smiley

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this is real
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BRTD
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« Reply #1901 on: November 02, 2008, 08:41:13 pm »
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Which of the Js in J. J. stands for Joke I wonder? He should just be J. P., Joke Poster.
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J. J.
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« Reply #1902 on: November 02, 2008, 08:44:38 pm »
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http://www.mensaboutique.com/mensa_gear.htm

For a mere $9 more your license plate can be framed:


The bumper stickers were about $2.50, IIRC.  This, however, is an example of applied intelligence.

I was trying to make a subtle jab saying that anyone can buy these stickers Smiley



I think they require a membership number and the license plate frames fade.  They also don't serve as an example of implied intelligence.

Which of the Js in J. J. stands for Joke I wonder? He should just be J. P., Joke Poster.

So far, my close prediction of PA seems to be coming true.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #1903 on: November 02, 2008, 09:53:53 pm »
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Weather or not you believe me is irrelevant.

*facepalm*
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J. J.
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« Reply #1904 on: November 02, 2008, 10:26:59 pm »
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Weather or not you believe me is irrelevant.

*facepalm*

Sorry, I was trying to get the election day forecast at the time I typed it.  Smiley
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #1905 on: November 02, 2008, 11:15:58 pm »
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Monday November 3, 2008

Registered Voters
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 40% (-1)

Likely Voters (Expanded)
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Likely Voters (Traditional)
Obama 53% (+2)
McCain 42% (-1)
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Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

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My State Senator: Sheila Harsdorf (R)
My State Represenative: Kitty Rhoades (R)
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« Reply #1906 on: November 02, 2008, 11:16:47 pm »
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Monday November 3, 2008

Registered Voters
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 40% (-1)

Likely Voters (Expanded)
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Likely Voters (Traditional)
Obama 53% (+2)
McCain 42% (-1)

?
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« Reply #1907 on: November 02, 2008, 11:19:19 pm »
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Monday November 3, 2008

Registered Voters
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 40% (-1)

Likely Voters (Expanded)
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Likely Voters (Traditional)
Obama 53% (+2)
McCain 42% (-1)

?
Check out their homepage, they updated already. That's their final poll too.
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Economic Left/Right: -6.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

My Congressman: Ron Kind (D)
My State Senator: Sheila Harsdorf (R)
My State Represenative: Kitty Rhoades (R)
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« Reply #1908 on: November 02, 2008, 11:20:10 pm »
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Monday November 3, 2008

Registered Voters
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 40% (-1)

Likely Voters (Expanded)
Obama 53% (+1)
McCain 42% (-1)

Likely Voters (Traditional)
Obama 53% (+2)
McCain 42% (-1)

?
Check out their homepage, they updated already. That's their final poll too.

Oh. Well awesome.
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Warren '16!
Verily
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« Reply #1909 on: November 02, 2008, 11:30:22 pm »
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Guess we won't get a test of whether "Traditional" or "Expanded" is a superior model, then.

Still picking up more voters in "Traditional", too (barely).


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Verily
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« Reply #1910 on: November 02, 2008, 11:38:36 pm »
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Also worth noting: Gallup is forecasting turnout at 64% of VAP, the highest since 1908 (!).

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/turnout.php
« Last Edit: November 02, 2008, 11:40:40 pm by Verily »Logged
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« Reply #1911 on: November 02, 2008, 11:41:50 pm »
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Also worth noting: Gallup is forecasting turnout at 64% of VAP, the highest since 1956 (!).
Well, one can hope. What would that be, 145 million or so?
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It seems like Lief's posts sometimes have a sexual tint to them. I've definitely seen references to spanking more than once.
Verily
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« Reply #1912 on: November 02, 2008, 11:46:04 pm »
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Also worth noting: Gallup is forecasting turnout at 64% of VAP, the highest since 1956 (!).
Well, one can hope. What would that be, 145 million or so?

I'm not sure (fixed the post, by the way, would be highest since 1908, not 1956). I'm also not sure if it's VAP or a colloquial usage of the term "voting-age population" to refer to VEP (voting-eligible population, i.e. only legal residents and non-felons plus citizens abroad), which is generally more precise in the modern era. But VEP and VAP converge once you get back to the 1980s or so, so it would still be the highest turnout in terms of VAP/VEP since 1908.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #1913 on: November 03, 2008, 05:10:10 am »
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Guess we won't get a test of whether "Traditional" or "Expanded" is a superior model, then.


Hmmm, seems a bit fishy that..
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #1914 on: November 03, 2008, 05:11:56 am »
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Hey JJ, didn't mean to be quite so abusive last night, had had a few too many drinks. Still think you post a lot of hackish rubbish, but there was no need to be so rude. sorry 'bout that.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 05:15:54 am by Kalimantan »Logged
Gustaf
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« Reply #1915 on: November 03, 2008, 06:50:10 am »
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I'm not getting into the fight but there is no way to tell a person's intelligence based on things like predictions or internet posts.
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This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
J. J.
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« Reply #1916 on: November 03, 2008, 07:01:11 am »
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Hey JJ, didn't mean to be quite so abusive last night, had had a few too many drinks. Still think you post a lot of hackish rubbish, but there was no need to be so rude. sorry 'bout that.

I'll treat you as being a "wet Democrat."  Smiley
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Kalimantan
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« Reply #1917 on: November 03, 2008, 07:04:22 am »
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Hey JJ, didn't mean to be quite so abusive last night, had had a few too many drinks. Still think you post a lot of hackish rubbish, but there was no need to be so rude. sorry 'bout that.

I'll treat you as being a "wet Democrat."  Smiley


HA! you bastard ! Smiley
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J. J.
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« Reply #1918 on: November 03, 2008, 07:34:50 am »
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Hey JJ, didn't mean to be quite so abusive last night, had had a few too many drinks. Still think you post a lot of hackish rubbish, but there was no need to be so rude. sorry 'bout that.

I'll treat you as being a "wet Democrat."  Smiley


HA! you bastard ! Smiley

Well, I probably would have voted for Al Smith.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
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« Reply #1919 on: November 03, 2008, 11:10:11 am »
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From Gallup:

"While only 4% of voters remain undecided in Gallup's unallocated likely voter model, the final poll estimates that a slightly larger 10% of likely voters still have the potential to either change their mind or make up their mind. Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain."
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« Reply #1920 on: November 03, 2008, 12:20:14 pm »
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From Gallup:

"While only 4% of voters remain undecided in Gallup's unallocated likely voter model, the final poll estimates that a slightly larger 10% of likely voters still have the potential to either change their mind or make up their mind. Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain."

Ouch.
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As expected the wop won.

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« Reply #1921 on: November 03, 2008, 01:01:58 pm »
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11/03/08

Registered

Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

LV expanded

Obama 53 (+1)
McCain 42 (-1)

LV traditional

Obama 53 (+2)
McCain 42 (-1)
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« Reply #1922 on: November 03, 2008, 01:05:33 pm »
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wow. Just... wow.
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As expected the wop won.

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1923 on: November 03, 2008, 01:31:14 pm »
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Alright... is Gallup smoking crack, or is it everybody else?
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« Reply #1924 on: November 03, 2008, 01:38:58 pm »
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Alright... is Gallup smoking crack, or is it everybody else?

I'll have what Gallups having Grin
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