Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[J. J.]

I've though that starting tomorrow, we'll start seeing less "bumped" numbers.  The next 3-4 days show the difference.

[J. J.]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Obama is running away with this one!

Do you need to constantly post this comment?

It is a fair comment on the poll-obsessed, which includes me. 

[J. J.]

My guess is a 3-5 point race.

[J. J.]

It just might be an overly McCain sample.

How soon will that day's sample drop out of the average?

[J. J.]

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

[J. J.]

I guess BRTD can certainly go back to getting lap dances from hispanic women now. It also looks like Obama's Jewish "problem" has been extremely overblown by the media (going by this and several other polls).

McCain is running 3 points higher than Bush got in 2004 with Jewish voters. 

http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

Again the problem is not carrying the group, but cutting into the base.

[J. J.]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

[J. J.]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Even during the Reagan years most Jewish voters voted Democrat.  In the 1990's the percentage increased, but the percentage of Jews voting Republican increased in 200 and fairly dramatically, in 2004.  McCain's numbers are higher still.

Most Jews will vote Democrat, but it looks like a larger minority will be voting Republican in 2008, if the polling is correct.

[J. J.]

If there was a bad sampling one day, how soon will it work its way out of the average?

Tomorrow.

Thank you.  Three day sample, I take it?

[J. J.]

No current Gallup.

[J. J.]

My guess is a 4-6 point race.

That pro-McCain sample passed through the system

[J. J.]

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Oops. Looks like some people got a little too excited.

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

[J. J.]

I'm not entirely sure how waiting for a days sample to get out of the average and saying it's a 4-6 point race, at this point is getting "excited."

It's the whole thing where one person started a new thread about Obama and McCain being tied in this daily tracking poll.

I think the bulk of posters said, "Maybe this just one bad sample."

[J. J.]

Maybe a 4-5 point race tightening slightly.  Ask me in a fortnight. 

[J. J.]

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

I heard one of the talking heads saying that Obama tends to pick up on the weekends; we'll see what happens this week.

[J. J.]

My guess was a four point race, possibly some slight erosion from mid June.  We'll see if it's dropped for a 4-6 point race to a 2-4 or tied-2 point race by mid week.

[J. J.]

My guess is less than 4 points, probably 2-3, for Obama.

[J. J.]

It looks like my guess was pretty good.

[J. J.]

Thursday - July 17, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)


Just reported on MSNBC

[J. J.]

While last week it appeared to be 4-6 point race, it now appears to be 0-3 point race.

[J. J.]

Both Gallup and Rasmussen agree.

[J. J.]

The "strong night" might the weekend shift seen in previous weeks.

[J. J.]

We need to wait to Wednesday.

[J. J.]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

[J. J.]

This is a complete weekend sample in Gallup polling.

Unless it's a long weekend, that's never going to be the case.  Gallup is a three-day tracker.

Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the reported on Tuesday.

Err?

It's Monday.  This poll is Friday-Sunday.  So, it's not "all-weekend."  I don't think last Friday was a holiday, was it?

Ah, I should have ckecked the calendar.

Still, you have 2 days from the weekend in this and tomorrow's sample.