Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Tender Branson]

Sunday June 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)

Gallup's analysis:

"Within the current five-day rolling average, Obama has exceeded McCain by a fair margin in each of the last three individual nights of Gallup polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton announced she would be ending her bid for the Democratic nomination. It appears that her exit decision had the immediate effect of releasing some of her supporters to back Obama in the general election. If this continues in interviews conducted Sunday, Obama should have a clear lead over McCain in Monday's release."

[Tender Branson]

Monday June 9, 2008

Obama - 48% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters' presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat.

Today's data are based on June 6-8 interviewing. Gallup had been reporting a five-day rolling average for the general election to this point, but now that the major party candidates are known Gallup will move to reporting a three-day rolling average. Obama would still hold a statistically significant lead (matching his best to date) in the five-day rolling average based on June 4-8 interviewing given his recent stronger performance.

Obama/Clinton: 51%
McCain: 42%

[Tender Branson]

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

Interesting:

A seperate USAToday/Gallup poll taken June 15-19 shows Obama leading by a wider margin.

Obama leads Republican John McCain by 48%-42% among registered voters in the survey, taken Sunday through Thursday. Among likely voters, Obama led McCain by 50%-44%.

Both contenders have largely solidified their standing among party regulars. Obama is backed by 84% of Democrats, McCain by 87% of Republicans; 9% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans defect to the other side.

Among independents — the group that usually determines election outcomes — Obama leads 48%-36%.

The poll shows sharp divisions between the two candidates along lines of sex, race and age:

• Women support Obama by 14 points while men back McCain by 3 points.

• Whites support McCain by 6 points while blacks almost unanimously back Obama, who is the first African-American to claim a major party's presidential nomination. Of 130 blacks surveyed, 129 support the Illinois senator.

• Young people back Obama while seniors support McCain. Among those 18 to 29 years old, Obama holds a better than 2-1 edge. Among those 65 and older, McCain leads, 49%-40%.

There were significant regional differences as well. McCain leads in the South, Obama on both the East and West coasts. In the battleground Midwest, Obama is ahead 48%-40%.

The survey of 1,625 adults — including 1,460 registered voters and 1,310 likely voters — has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-06-20-poll-friday_N.htm

[Tender Branson]

Saturday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

Gallup and Rasmussen seem to be back to their primary game of agreeing to disagree. When one has Obama's margin wide, the other has it narrow, and vice versa.

Uh,

Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen has had a "wide" margin for Obama (a wide margin would be on the order of the ludicrous Princeton Associates poll).

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have had Obama consistently in the lead by between two to six points.

The problem here is how you handle respondents who really haven't made up their minds.

If you look below the toplines you will find that the softness in McCain's support is rather high, especially when compared to Obama.

So, pushing "leaner's" at this point will result in better number for McCain than is actually the true story.

I´ve also read somewhere that Obama is doing better among polls that include "Likely Voters" rather than "Registered Voters", compared with Kerry in 2004, who did better among "Registered Voters" ... I don´t know how much of this is true.

[Tender Branson]

Obama takes the lead again ...

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

Meh, another Pro-McCain sample on the way of passing through ...

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 12, 2008:

Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

Tuesday - July 15, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - July 16, 2008:

Obama - 47% (nc)
McCain - 44% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 19, 2008:

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 43% (-1)

These results are based on interviews conducted July 16-18. In Friday's report, Barack Obama's support fell out of the narrow 46%-48% range it had been in for the prior 18 reports, and remains outside that range today. However, Obama had a stronger night in Friday interviewing and could inch back into that range with another strong performance tonight.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - July 20, 2008:

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 42% (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Monday July 21, 2008:

Obama - 47% (+2)
McCain - 41% (-1)

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - July 26, 2008:

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 41% (nc)

This represents a continuation of Obama's frontrunner position in Gallup's Friday report, when he led McCain by six points, 47% to 41%. Earlier this week, Obama and McCain were separated by just two to four points, but that was before the extensive U.S. news coverage of the last leg of Obama's foreign tour.

Obama's particularly large leads over McCain in Friday and Saturday's tracking suggest that the massive publicity surrounding Obama's speech at the Victory Tower in Berlin on Friday -- the only major public event of the trip -- and coverage of Obama's meetings with the heads of state in France and Britain may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor.

Notably, Obama's current seven-point lead over McCain ties his widest since the start of Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the general election in early March, and was achieved only once previously. He led McCain by seven points immediately after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, that proved to be a short-lived bounce, with Obama holding a six- to seven-point lead for only three days before it dropped back to two to three points.

While Obama may have thus far received a modest bounce from the massive publicity surrounding this week's trip, his ability to sustain or build on that -- as opposed to having it dissipate along with news coverage of the trip --could hinge on how the major U.S. media outlets and conservative vs. liberal commentators portray his performance abroad in the coming days.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - July 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

This represents a continuation of Obama's front-runner position evident in the last three Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates.

The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March.

A key question remains as to whether this "bounce" is short-term (as happens to bounces in some instances following intense publicity surrounding a convention) or if his lead will persist -- the answer to which will become evident in the next several days.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - July 27, 2008:

Obama - 49% (+1)
McCain - 40% (-1)

I´d rather have a continuous 5-6% advantage for Obama until Nov. 4 to avoid voters staying at home because they think Obama is a lock. A 5-6% advantage prior to Election Day is also the margin with which Obama could offset a minor Bradley-Effect and still win the election.

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - August 6, 2008:

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

Wednesday - August 13, 2008

Obama - 48% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

What's the matter with Gallup today ? No Poll ?

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 17, 2008

Obama - 45% (nc)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Tender Branson]

Strange. That's all I can say ...

[Tender Branson]

Dang !!!

Thursday - August 28, 2008:

Obama 48% (+3)
McCain 42% (-2)

[Tender Branson]

So far, so good. I expect Obama's lead to be down to 4% by tomorrow or Saturday. Otherwise, it would be troubling for McCain.

[Tender Branson]

It seems like Obama is holding up about as well as you could expect, so far.

No, that is only a one day sample after Palin's speech.

Monday for the bump, but check out the numbers for Thursday or Friday of next week.  We'll have some idea at this point.

All we need is a new CO poll in the next 2 weeks and PPP will provide one.

[Tender Branson]

RCP average has McCain up 2.3.

Today's 4 tracking polls have it 47.0-45.5 for McCain.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday -  September 14, 2008:

McCain  - 47% (nc)
Obama  - 45% (nc)