Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Ronnie]

Hmm, so is the Obama bounce winding down?  Let's see.

[Ronnie]

Obama will likely be on par with Kerry's preformance among Jews. I'd even wager he might do a point or two better if the national average is big enough.

I expect not on par, a bit worse.

Also, Bush's "Jewish numbers" went up from 19 to 24 from 2002 to 2004.  They are fluid, long term, but recently they seem be growing for the GOP.

Ew. If Jews start voting for the GOP I might just want to move to Canada... It's a long way from Jews voting for Republicans. They really hate Bush, but so many old Jewish women are upset with Obama defeating Hillary and so many Jews distrust him. I'm so frustrated with my religion.

Exactly.  My aunt and my grandma, who are quite liberal, say that they distrust Obama and will vote for McCain.

I am a Republican Jew from California, which kind of puts me in the minority, don't you think?

[Ronnie]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

[Ronnie]

A 7 point bounce.... not bad....if McCain gets a 5 point bounce, Obama will be ahead by 3, instead of 1. This will mean that it will still be Obama's race to lose.

You wish.  Don't forget that Reagan was the underdog before the debates.  I don't know how the debates will go, but the election is by far over.

Agreed; however, I assume you agree that Obama does have an edge, yes?

Sure, I don't think anyone is arguing with that.

[Ronnie]

By this weekend, I expect Obama to lead by 3 or something.

[Ronnie]

The bounce is not enough for my liking.

[Ronnie]

The bounce is not enough for my liking.

It will go away soon after the convention.

It must be very worrying to the McCain campaign that despite all the hoopla and excitement regarding Sarah Palin and how she might as well get her curtains measured in the White House, that McCain is very likely to see a lead that is beyond the margin of error, or even a lead at all.

This is the high point of the presidential cycle for the GOP this election cycle.

Too bad the bounce isn't over yet.

[Ronnie]

Yeah, baby!

[Ronnie]

NoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO~!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This.... this can't be happening...! Gah!

The best part is that the bounce isn't even over yet!!!!! 

[Ronnie]

At first, I thought it said Obama up three!

This is great.

Yeah, if McCain holds onto these numbers until election day, he may be able to put PA into play.

I doubt it, though.

[Ronnie]

McCain being a third Bush term is simply a false statement.  I mean, even if he tried to be a third Bush term, he couldn't be one, just because of the large majority the Democrats will have in congress.  If he truly was another Bush term, I don't think I would be able to support him.

[Ronnie]

Honestly its about time McCain lead in Gallup since May, but I think most people that said I'am voting for this guy is just to pay tribute to his service in Vietnam not to actually vote for him come November.  I think most Americans would say what is on their minds that day. 

I mean if Hillary was against McCain, I still think McCain would see a huge bounce from his convention.

Well, we shall see.  I think that there will be plenty of people that would support Obama until the last minute as well.

[Ronnie]

Since McCain is almost getting a majority of the vote, I'm pretty satisfied.

[Ronnie]

McCain winning a majority of indies:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

[Ronnie]

Not bad. McCain is still clearly out in front.

Hardly "Out in front."  He's ahead by 2, and that lead has been going down steadily.  We'll be tied by Wednesday, I'd say.

RAS has him up by 3.

Then RAS will have them tied on Tursday or Friday.

I love wishful thinking.

[Ronnie]

Well looks like America wants 4 more years of Bush policies. Wonderful.

Well...if you want to call it that, sure.  I disagree; but then again, a good sized chunk of the American public disagrees as well.

[Ronnie]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

[Ronnie]

As I said, these numbers are rock solid.  McCain should be leading 2-3 points nationally now; no more, no less.

The Rasmussen update tomorrow on CO, VA, PA, FL and OH should be interesting, considering McCain gained 2-3% over the week nationally.

Definitely, the one I'm most looking forward to is the CO poll.

[Ronnie]

The race is rock solid at McCain + 2.  I don't think anyone could deny that.

[Ronnie]

I think both Gallup and Ras. are showing that the bounce has subsided.

I think there were two bounces which overlapped. The Palin bounce and the Convention bounce. I think both have gone largely.

Palin's bounce was more than likely a shift to McCain/Palin of indepdent women - who have since realised who/what Palin is and they've fallen back. No suprise McCain's numbers slip, as her unfavourables rise.

It's certainly not over, but Palin was a risky choice, and just how risky I think is being shown now.

We won't see how "risky" she was until after the debates.

[Ronnie]

I furthermore concede this election to the Democrats.

[Ronnie]

Whoa, it's actually tied...

In any case, I expect Obama to win and win handily.

[Ronnie]

Friday, September 26, 2008
Obama 48% (+2)
McCain 45% (-1)

McCain really needs to win the debate tonight.

[Ronnie]

Bleh

[Ronnie]

McCain is finished.

I semi-agree, but there is time until the election (even though I can't see any possible way he will make up 8 points of ground.)