Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Umengus]

Compared to his score 2 weeks ago, the Mc cain score is weak (in gallup and rasmussen). I don't know why.

[Umengus]

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Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

[Umengus]

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke? 

Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

[Umengus]

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Gallup's long-established national tracking poll is a "fake poll" based on a 34% subsample that you intuitively feel is wrong?  Or is this a joke? 

Gallup did crazy in 2004. Completely off. Hence, I'm cautious with this firm.

On the state level, not their tracking poll, I thought.

Gallup didn't do a tracking poll in 2004 after the 2000 disaster (which has been corrected for now, as far as I can tell).

Their final poll would have been directly had they not allocated the undecideds as follows:

Actual Poll
Bush 49, Kerry 47, Nader 1

After Undecided Allocation
Bush 49, Kerry 49 (+2), Nader 2 (+1)

Frank Newport must have been on crack when he made that move.  Break them evenly!

Problem is not really their last result which was not so horrible. The problem is their polls during the campaign. Very erratic. Fake bounce. etc (The biggest problem was the bad composition of their sample)

Maybe that, like Rasmussen in 2004, Gallup has improved his way to poll the country. Their tracking poll seems not bad. But I stay cautious, especially in summer.

[Umengus]

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Er... wow.

lol I can't believe that. Fake poll ("air connu").

Of course, "moral values" need not pertain exclusively to such issues as abortion and same-sex marriage, they could, also, apply to, for example, corporate malfeasance. Besides a series of Republican scandals may well have dented the party's traditional advantage

Dave

indeed but I think that on the election day, Mc Cain will be first on this problem.

[Umengus]

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !

[Umengus]

and for likely voters ?  it stays the best for me. I don't care about RV who will not vote. Go in hell !

LV's tend to get more useful as election season goes on, and RV less so.  Early on, ignoring RV's in favor of LV's is potentially a bad idea.

RV's that aren't LV's are not unlikely voters.

what then ?

[Umengus]

Gallup says Mc Cain +4 in his USA today/gallup poll (LV). Gallup is a joke. A total joke.

[Umengus]

We are still in summer guys...

[Umengus]

this thread is funny. We are still in summer and some people are completely crazy. October will be very hard for them.

[Umengus]

This bounce business tired me. In one week, it will be +- tie.

[Umengus]

I wonder if the recovery of the stock market on Friday will have an impact. It was massive world wide.

impact yes but smaller than the fall.

[Umengus]

confusion is the word.

And the answer is in the party id.

[Umengus]

Yeah, I'm going to have to go with the non-traditional one.  I'd rather not believe that Obama is only two up, thank you very much.

Gallup makes everybody happy