Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Gustaf]

Sorry, I wrote my comments late at night.... I really tried to explain it, but whatever.

My point is that among Democrats racism is not really an issue. And I really misworded my comments on Catholics. I truly did not mean to offend anyone, but I am really offended at being labeled ignorant. Until this year, I thought America had gotten over racism, but from the exit polls it seems like there is still a lot of it on the East Coast.

When I reread my comment, I was quite shocked, so please ignore it! I really don't believe that!

Some of the exit polls looked ugly, and they disturbed me as well...

Maybe I'm naive, but I have to believe that this is less than 5% of the American people that vote overtly on skin tone. George Wallace did all right in '68, even in many Northern states, but I would like to believe the possible fantasy that America is in 2008 a post-race era. For the future of our nation, I hope so anyways....

post-race, no. But race matters today far less than it has at any point in our history. That said, it still matters a great deal.

The number of people in America who are violently racist in a "I could never for a black guy because he's, yuck, black" way is probably pretty low. The number who feel threatened by people like Wright or Jackson and are afraid of black gangs, etc is much higher. Obama's strength originally was that he wasn't triggering the second group. Post-Wright, etc, he is.

[Gustaf]

Obama Holds Slim Advantage Over McCain Among Catholics [26 June, 2008]

Hispanic Catholics tip group in Obama's favor

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108382/Obama-Holds-Slim-Advantage-Over-McCain-Among-Catholics.aspx

Presidential Vote Preference, by Religious Affiliation

Protestant: McCain 48%; Obama 41%

-White: McCain 56%; Obama 32%
-Non-White: McCain 15%; Obama 77%

Catholic: McCain 43%; Obama 47%

-Non-Hispanic: McCain 46%; Obama 43%
- Hispanic: McCain 25%; Obama 66%

Mormon: McCain 70%; Obama 23%

Jewish: McCain 29%; Obama 62%

No religion: McCain 25%; Obama 65%

June 5-23, Gallup Daily tracking

Dave

I guess BRTD can certainly go back to getting lap dances from hispanic women now. It also looks like Obama's Jewish "problem" has been extremely overblown by the media (going by this and several other polls).

McCain polling 30-60 when Bush did about 25-75 in 2004 is a definite, substantial improvement. Of course, you can say that the poll is wrong, etc. And in overall numbers the number of Jews is still too low to make a real impact with this kind of change.

[Gustaf]

Again, a valuable post.

Please note that the so-called "swing" voters have a much more negative view of both McCain and Obama than the committed voters!

How is that strange? Of course the number of commited Obama or McCain voters disapproving of both candidates will be low. If you disapprove of a candidate you're unlikely to be solid for him. There are many more swing voters that approve of both than commited voters too.

[Gustaf]

It could simply be the case that Obama's base is simply much busier than McCain's. This could help McCain since the election is on Tuesday, but the enthusaism gap is so big that it might not even matter.

1: McCain's base are almost certainly busier than Obama's.
2: the candidate with the more enthusiastic supporters is not necessarily underestimated in polling. I think the opposite is more likely.

[Gustaf]

Carl, I have an honest question: Are national polls necessarily more immune from bad samples?  Or do little pockets of weakness (cell-only, non-response, multiple landlines etc.) expose themselves more in a national poll?

Do you mean national as opposed to tracking or national as opposed to state?

[Gustaf]

I believe the idea is that the trend has been there for more than 15 days. It obviously didn't turn out that way for the last week and you can argue away the week before that with Obama's Middle East trip and there are your two weeks. You would have to look further back to test the hypothesis.

[Gustaf]

Sunday - August 24, 2008

Obama - 45% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

bumping around...

This doesn't pick up the Biden thing does it?  Is it a rolling 3 day poll?

I think this one includes Saturday and since the calls are made in the evening it should, theoretically? If so, fail for Biden, he made Obama lose a point.

[Gustaf]

As a general comment I would appreciate if all the "hurrah" and "nooo" stuff would be somewhere else...it's annoying to have to go back two pages every time in order to get to the polls.

But as I'm writing this already I guess I can add to the mess.

It looks bad for McCain though. Still, this is obviously a "crisis effect." Unless things continue to look bad I expect the current lead to diminish. Bottom line though: McCain probably needs a "move" to shake things up and move it in his direction. The question is whether there is any such feasible move left for him?

[Gustaf]

As a general comment I would appreciate if all the "hurrah" and "nooo" stuff would be somewhere else...it's annoying to have to go back two pages every time in order to get to the polls.

But as I'm writing this already I guess I can add to the mess.

It looks bad for McCain though. Still, this is obviously a "crisis effect." Unless things continue to look bad I expect the current lead to diminish. Bottom line though: McCain probably needs a "move" to shake things up and move it in his direction. The question is whether there is any such feasible move left for him?

Or you could just go to Gallup.com

Sure, but I like to be able to check all the latest trackers on here. It's an eternal problem...it's just that it's worse lately. I don't mind the analysis, of course.

[Gustaf]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

Don't be mean to people losing their last hope, man.

[Gustaf]

Is there someone keeping track of the days who can tell whether this was likely to be a bad sample or if it has any significance?

[Gustaf]

So Obamas Gallup numbers are going up and up, and almost everywhere else they're going down. What to make of this?

Like I just said, I have noticed that Gallup sometimes seems to lag behind a little.

That doesn't make any sense at all. "Oh, you're a pollster with Gallup? Let me tell you who I supported three days ago."

Mmm.  This is definitely my least favorite new poll-apologist explanation.

It's true that some pollsters are more prone to swings, that that relates to composition model.  The idea that a pollster could get a "laggy" sample is kind of hard to fathom.

Sam claims, and I think I have seen evidence of that myself too, that state polls lag behind national ones. That would be equally strange wouldn't it?

Anyway, it could be fathomed if they're a) lying a little bit about when they conduct their interviews or b) do it at different times of the day than other pollsters.

But it's probably just some kind of noise/coincidence, etc. Maybe even the famed weekend-bounce, who knows?

[Gustaf]

Personally, I suspect the traditional model will be closer to the truth than the expanded one. I tend to average the two in my head and then move it a point to towards the traditional one. Not really scientific, but whatever.

It does seem like McCain is doing a little bit better right now. It is what I used to expect but then gave up on when Obama surged earlier. Still doesn't really matter though - Obama's margin, once compared to the number of remaining days, is definitely big enough.

[Gustaf]

I'm not getting into the fight but there is no way to tell a person's intelligence based on things like predictions or internet posts.