Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Democratic Hawk]

An Early Gallup Road Map to the McCain-Obama Matchup (June 4, 2008)

Obama's appeal to young, highly educated apparent in general election

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107689/Early-Gallup-Road-Map-McCainObama-Matchup.aspx

This data was compiled May 1-31; showing how things stand between McCain vs Obama among a number of demographics.

Notes: 1) Bush vs Kerry, 2004 in paranthesis [ ]. 2) [-]denotes incomparable data from 2004 exit poll. 3) Bold denotes net gain on 2004

Gender

Men: McCain 49 [55]; Obama 43 [44]
Women: McCain 42 [48]; Obama 48 [51]

Age

18-29: McCain 36 [45]; Obama 59 [54]
30-49: McCain 46 [-]; Obama 46 [-]
50-64: McCain 47 [-]; Obama 44 [-]
65+: McCain 50 [-]; Obama 38 [-]

Race

White: McCain 53 [58]; Obama 38 [41]
Blacks: McCain 4 [11]; Obama 90 [88]
Hispanics: McCain 29 [44]; Obama 62 [53]

Education

High school or less: McCain 46 [52]; Obama 43 [48]
Some college: McCain 47 [54]; Obama 45 [46]
College graduate: McCain 47 [52]; Obama 47 [46]
Postgraduate: McCain 41 [44]; Obama 54 [55]

Income (monthly)

Under $2000: McCain 36 [-]; Obama 53 [-]
$2000 - $4999: McCain 46 [-]; Obama 46 [-]
$5000 - $7499: McCain 50 [-]; Obama 44 [-]
$7500 or more: McCain 49 [-]; Obama 45 [-]

Region

East: McCain 40 [43]; Obama 50 [56]
Midwest: McCain 43 [51]; Obama 47 [48]
South: McCain 52 [58]; Obama 39 [42]
West: McCain 43 [49]; Obama 50 [50]

Party Identification

Democrat: McCain 15 [11]; Obama 76 [89]
Independent: McCain 45 [48]; Obama 43 [49]
Republican: McCain 85 [93]; Obama 10 [6]

Ideology

Liberal: McCain 14 [13]; Obama 80 [85]
Moderate: McCain 38 [45]; Obama 50 [54]
Conservative: McCain 69 [84]; Obama 23 [15]

Religiosity

Weekly: McCain 55 [61]; Obama 36 [39]
Nearly weekly/Monthly: McCain 46 [47]; Obama 46 [53]
Seldom/Never: McCain 37 (36); Obama 53 [62]

Religious Preference

Protestant/Other Christian: McCain 51 [59]; Obama 41 [40]
Catholic: McCain 46 [52]; Obama 45 [47]
Jewish: McCain 35 [23]; Obama 57 [74]
None: McCain 26 [31]; Obama 66 [67]

Marital Status

Married: McCain 52 [57]; Obama 39 [42]
Not married: McCain 35 [40]; Obama 55 [58]

Red vs Blue State

Bush state won by 6+ points: McCain 52 [-]; Obama 39 [-]
Margin of victory 5 points or less: McCain 44 [-]; Obama 47 [-]
Kerry state won by 6+ points: McCain 39 [-]; Obama 53 [-]

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday June 5, 2008

Obama - 45%
McCain - 45%

Obama/Clinton - 50%
McCain - 45%

[Democratic Hawk]

Those Hispanic numbers can't possibly be right can they?

In the 2006 national exit poll, Hispanics voted Democratic 69 to 30

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday June 6, 2008

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-)

[Democratic Hawk]

I'm so disappointed in those Jewish numbers. I really don't know what to say. I know Jews aren't racist, but the excuse for my fellow Jews is, "He isn't trustworthy, he doesn't support Israel enough!" ugh. One more demographic the Democrats have lost....

Obama is leading among Jews, 57 to 35, I've only emboldened McCain's % because it is an improvement on the support Bush received among Jews in 2004

As the campaign progresses, Obama may yet increase his support among Jews. These figures for May and, thus, pre-his speech at AIPAC

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday June 7, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday June 8, 2008

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday June 10, 2008

Obama - 48% (nc)
McCain - 41% (-1)

Voting preferences have been fairly stable over the last three individual days of tracking polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton officially suspended her candidacy and publicly endorsed Obama for president on Saturday.

The seven percentage point advantage is Obama's largest to date since Gallup began tracking the general election in March. In turn, McCain has led Obama by as many as six percentage points in early May.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama Gains Among Women After Clinton Exit (June 11, 2008)

Now running as strongly vs. McCain among women as Clinton did

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107806/Obama-Gains-Among-Women-After-Clinton-Exit.aspx

Vote Preference in the General Election Presidential Election, by Gender and Marital Status

Gallup Daily Tracking, June 5 - 9, 2008 [changes on previous week]

Married men: McCain 53% (-2); Obama 39% (+1)

Married women: McCain 45% (-7); Obama 45% (+5)

Unmarried men: McCain 35% (-4); Obama 57% (+3)

Unmarried women: McCain 31% (-1); Obama 57% (-)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday June 11, 2008

Obama - 48% (nc)
McCain - 42% (+1)

This marks the third consecutive day that Obama has held a significant lead, as he enjoys a modest boost in support following Hillary Clinton's decision to concede the nomination. Obama's six and seven percentage point advantages over McCain in recent days have been his best to date. Obama has held significant leads over McCain at other points since mid-March (when Gallup first began tracking general election preferences), but for the most part the two candidates have been locked in statistical dead heats.

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday June 12, 2008

Heavy storms and tornadoes shut down Gallup interviewing centers in Omaha and Lincoln, Neb., Wednesday night, as a result Gallup will not be publishing new Gallup Poll Daily tracking results Thursday, June 12. The next report will be Friday, June 13.

[Democratic Hawk]

Large Democratic Base Provides Big Advantage for Obama (June 12, 2008)

Over half of Americans identify as or lean toward being Democratic

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107842/Large-Democratic-Base-Provides-Big-Advantage-Obama.aspx

Party identification , June 5-10, 2008

Republicans 28%; Independents/Other/Don't Know 34%; Democrats 37%

Among Independents: 11% Lean Republican; 8% are 'pure' Independents; 15% Lean Democratic

Presidential General Election, by Party I/D

Republicans (28%): McCain 85%; Obama 10%
Independents (34%): McCain 39%; Obama 46%
Democrats (37%): McCain 14%; Obama 78%

Lean Republican (11%): McCain 81%; Obama 11%
'Pure' Independents (8%): McCain 35%; Obama 26%
Lean Democratic (15%): McCain 10%; Obama 83% [actually more pro-Obama than 'core' Democrats]

Republicans plus leaners (39%): McCain 84%; Obama 10%
'Pure' Independents, no leaners (8%): McCain 35%; Obama 26%
Democrats plus leaners (52%): McCain 13%; Obama 80%

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday June 13, 2008

Obama - 46% (-2)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Although Obama's three percentage point advantage is statistically significant, it is down from the 6- to 7-point leads he had in Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.

According to the latest results, based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews from June 9-10 and 12, a sizeable 10% of national registered voters are either undecided between the two major party candidates for president (4%), or say they will not vote for either (6%). This is the highest uncommitted percentage Gallup has seen since it launched daily tracking of an Obama vs. McCain race in early March. (The average across this time period is 8%.) Additionally, a consistent 1% volunteer they will vote for a different candidate.

[Democratic Hawk]

Religious Americans Prefer McCain Over Obama (June 13, 2008)

Preference is especially stronger among white Americans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107989/Religious-Americans-Prefer-McCain-Over-Obama.aspx

"Is religion an important part of your daily life?"

Yes (64%): Obama 42%; McCain 47%

No (35%): Obama 58%; McCain 33%

Among non-Hispanic whites:

Important (62%): Obama 32%; McCain 57%

Not important (37%): Obama 54%; McCain 38%

McCain leads Obama among whites, 49% to 40%

Gallup Daily Tracking, June 5-10, 2008

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday June 14, 2008

Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 42% (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Compared to his score 2 weeks ago, the Mc cain score is weak (in gallup and rasmussen). I don't know why.

You sound disappointed Umengus?

[Democratic Hawk]

And looking at Gallup, before any much longer it's going to be my turn

Sunday 15 June, 2008

Obama - 44% (-1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 16 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (+2)
McCain - 42% (nc)

The latest release, based on June 13-15 interviewing with over 2,600 registered voters nationwide, shows Obama regaining a statistically significant lead over McCain. Over the weekend, the race was slightly closer, but Obama still held an advantage. Obama has led by as many as seven percentage points since Hillary Clinton decided to abandon her presidential bid earlier this month.

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 17 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 42% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 18 June, 2008

Obama - 47% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

These results, based on June 15-17 interviewing, suggest that voter preferences are fairly stable at the moment -- Obama's lead has been four or five points in each of the last three individual nights of polling.

Obama has averaged a four percentage point advantage over McCain since Hillary Clinton decided to suspend her campaign, though in the immediate days after Clinton conceded the nomination Obama led by as much as seven points.

McCain has trailed Obama for most of June and last held a significant lead over him in May 21-25 polling. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Gallup Poll Daily tracking will not be conducted on Wednesday; the next update will appear on gallup.com on Friday.

[Democratic Hawk]

Forty Somethings May Hold Key to the Election (June 18, 2008)

Obama and McCain highly competitive among voters in their 40s

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108064/FortySomethings-May-Hold-Key-Election.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday 20 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 44% (+2)

These results are based on interviewing conducted on June 16-17 and June 19. (Gallup did not conduct Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing on June 18.) Obama has had a higher share of the vote than McCain during most of June, with a margin ranging from one to seven percentage points. Friday's two-point edge for Obama is consistent with that general pattern, although at the narrower end of the range. In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now, with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.

[Democratic Hawk]

Saturday 21 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday 22 June, 2008

Obama - 46% (nc)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Cue Phil ... 1 ... 2 ... 3 ... 4

[Democratic Hawk]

Election Enthusiasm Dips After Primaries [June 23, 2008]

Democrats maintain an edge over Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108322/Election-Enthusiasm-Dips-After-Primaries.aspx#1

All registered voters

48% are more enthusiastic

37% are less enthusiastic

14% feel about the same

By Party Affiliation

61% of Democrats and Democratic-leaners are more enthusiastic

35% of Republicans and Republican-leaners are more enthusiastic

GALLUP POLL June 15-19

Dave