Pennsylvania Congressional Races

[Spaghetti Cat]

Republicans can only improve their current numbers in the delegation here.  I think we have the best chance in PA-4, where we'll see a Altmire vs. Hart rematch.  Melissa Hart's evaluation of the race (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08157/887529-176.stm) basically sums it up:  Altmire has a record to run on now and the race will be more local this time than it was last time.  I'd  also like to add that Altmire is hurt by the fact that Obama is the Presidentual nominee.  I'm sure Hart will link the two at every opportunity she has.  We also have a fair chance in the Patrick Murphy's district (PA-8), where he'll face Tom Manion.  Chris Carney should also feel somewhat vulnerable in PA-10 against Chris Hackett.  And if Lou Barletta can actually raise some money, PA-11 could be competative.

[Verily]

Not if they lose PA-06. Not all that likely, but nor are most of the races you point out.

[Keystone Phil]

Not if they lose PA-06. Not all that likely, but nor are most of the races you point out.

PA 4 is definitley more competitive than PA 6.

We don't really have a shot at PA 8. Murphy has it. PA 11 is a strange one. It could be competitive but expect Kanjorski to win by a few points.

[Mr.Phips]

I would currently agree that PA-04 is really the only seat that Republicans have a real shot at picking up in PA.  Carney seems to be doing much better in PA-10 than anyone predicted a year ago. 

[Keystone Phil]

I would currently agree that PA-04 is really the only seat that Republicans have a real shot at picking up in PA.  Carney seems to be doing much better in PA-10 than anyone predicted a year ago. 

We still have a good shot at the 10th but, as I feared, Carney is on his way to becoming another Holden if we let him win this time.

[bullmoose88]

Manion's a crap candidate.  I'm not even sure if I'll vote Republican on that level...a first...a shame too...considering how Obama ran in the district during the primary.  The presidential race's coattails, if any, would seem to be smaller with Obama.

[MarkWarner08]

Not if they lose PA-06. Not all that likely, but nor are most of the races you point out.

I've been waiting six years for Jim Gerlach to lose. Ever since he defeated Dan Wofford, son of Harris, who is one of my heroes. I guess there's always 2010.

[Mr.Phips]

Not if they lose PA-06. Not all that likely, but nor are most of the races you point out.

I've been waiting six years for Jim Gerlach to lose. Ever since he defeated Dan Wofford, son of Harris, who is one of my heroes. I guess there's always 2010.

Yep, the man seems seems to be made of teflon.  The ironic thing is that if the DCCC had focused on PA-06 in 2002 the way they did in 2006, Wofford would have likely won.  Instead, Democrats decided in 2002 to throw money into either easy pickups like MD-02 and MD-08 or open races they ended up losing in landslides like NH-01 and NM-02. 

[socaldem]

What about PA-03?

Rep. English has underperformed against his previous opponent in the last two elections, an unknown gadfly.  The district is definitely competitive and has strong Democratic roots and though English is fairly moderate and was even a potential RNCC chair, he doesn't really strike me as the best campaigner or most able politician.

Obama probably won't have coattails but I don't expect him to do any worse than John Kerry in the district.

Democrats have a decent candidate in the well-connected potential self-funder Kathy Dahlkemper, who it seems to me would probably have good appeal to disaffected Clinton supporters who may not come home to Obama.

I think the PA delegation is most likely to stay the same as it is now.  I think that the most likely change is, in fact, a PA-03 upset followed by a Hart comeback in PA-04 and the defeat of Chris Carney in PA-10.  I don't see Gerlach losing in 2008 to a second-rate candidate after having survived several vigorous well-funded challenges unless there is a major Obama landslide.  Theoretically Rep. Tim Murphy may also be vulnerable in PA-18 if his personal scandals escalate and if there is a landslide. 

Reps. Patrick Murphy in PA-08 and Joe Sestak in PA-06 may not win by the largest of margins and may, in fact, have closer races than Gerlach or Tim Murphy.  However, in my opinion, there is less chance that they will lose their races than the above GOP incumbents and barring personal scandal or major gaffes by these two incumbent Democrats, I consider their reelection a fait accompli at this point.

Hart and the incumbent GOPers, ultimately will have their prospects clouded by the fact that the RNCC is severely underfunded compared to the DCCC.  That factor also essentially dooms the already lackluster candidates in PA-06, PA-08, and possibly PA-10, though, as mentioned above, the GOP nature of the district means that an upset of the freshman Democrat there can not be entirely ruled out at this point.

[Spaghetti Cat]

What about PA-03?

Rep. English has underperformed against his previous opponent in the last two elections, an unknown gadfly.  The district is definitely competitive and has strong Democratic roots and though English is fairly moderate and was even a potential RNCC chair, he doesn't really strike me as the best campaigner or most able politician.

Obama probably won't have coattails but I don't expect him to do any worse than John Kerry in the district.

Democrats have a decent candidate in the well-connected potential self-funder Kathy Dahlkemper, who it seems to me would probably have good appeal to disaffected Clinton supporters who may not come home to Obama.

I think the PA delegation is most likely to stay the same as it is now.  I think that the most likely change is, in fact, a PA-03 upset followed by a Hart comeback in PA-04 and the defeat of Chris Carney in PA-10.  I don't see Gerlach losing in 2008 to a second-rate candidate after having survived several vigorous well-funded challenges unless there is a major Obama landslide.  Theoretically Rep. Tim Murphy may also be vulnerable in PA-18 if his personal scandals escalate and if there is a landslide. 

Reps. Patrick Murphy in PA-08 and Joe Sestak in PA-06 may not win by the largest of margins and may, in fact, have closer races than Gerlach or Tim Murphy.  However, in my opinion, there is less chance that they will lose their races than the above GOP incumbents and barring personal scandal or major gaffes by these two incumbent Democrats, I consider their reelection a fait accompli at this point.

Hart and the incumbent GOPers, ultimately will have their prospects clouded by the fact that the RNCC is severely underfunded compared to the DCCC.  That factor also essentially dooms the already lackluster candidates in PA-06, PA-08, and possibly PA-10, though, as mentioned above, the GOP nature of the district means that an upset of the freshman Democrat there can not be entirely ruled out at this point.

Although I agree with the rest of your analysis, Kathy Dahlkemper just doesn't seem like that strong of a candidate to me.  And with Obama as the nominee, her campaign is hurt even more.  This race will probably be close, but English will win by 5 or 6 points, unless something major happens.

[Jake]

Legitimately, PA-04, PA-06, and PA-10 are the only competitive districts in Pennsylvania. And Obama is not going to play well in PA-10 at all (expect him to run ~5 points behind Kerry's 2004 preformance).

[Keystone Phil]

What about PA-03?

It's a weird seat with a weird incumbent. The Dems are playing up their chances but English will win in the end.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

[bullmoose88]

t's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

It would be interesting to see if the OMG Nancy Pelosi...line would be more effective in 2010 if we had a sitting democratic president in place at that time.

[Sam Spade]

Realistically, I think the only two interesting races will be PA-04 and PA-10, barring major scandal or something.

I guess PA-03 could be interesting, but that area was at the *heart* of the 2006 wave and English still outperformed Bush 2004 (granted against a nothing opponent, but still).  And I really don't call 60% in 2004 underperformance - but what do I know.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

Hart didn't lose or win because of fundraising.  She lost because she assumed Altmire had no chance, even up to the point where he did obviously have a chance.  Even then, she still might not have been able to survive the wave, which was very strong in that area of the US in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

So she blew her race in 2006. I can't like her now?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

So she blew her race in 2006. I can't like her now?

If that's the kind of campaign instincts you want, you're welcome to her.

[Keystone Phil]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

He wouldn't have. Murphy is too strong now. Plus, Fitz has some family health issues. He was going to run for State Representative this year but dropped out.

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

So she blew her race in 2006. I can't like her now?

If that's the kind of campaign instincts you want, you're welcome to her.

I think she's learned her lesson. Plus, you still don't give me a reason to not like her record (to generally like her) just because she ran a poor campaign one time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

He wouldn't have. Murphy is too strong now. Plus, Fitz has some family health issues. He was going to run for State Representative this year but dropped out.

I don't know why so many people around here love Melissa Hart so much. She lost in 2006 despite a 2-1 fundraising advantage, and now her fundraising is in the toilet. Altmire has built a moderate voting record in Congress, and besides, it's not like "OMG NANCY PELOSI SAN FRANCISCO LIBERAL!!!" has been working very well for the Republicans.

So she blew her race in 2006. I can't like her now?

If that's the kind of campaign instincts you want, you're welcome to her.

I think she's learned her lesson. Plus, you still don't give me a reason to not like her record (to generally like her) just because she ran a poor campaign one time.

I was speaking from an electoral standpoint. I don't care if she bakes cookies for everyone in her district.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Jason Altmire hasn't really lived up to his "moderate Democrat" label.  Bob Novak highlights this in a recent article from Human Events
(http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26694)

"But that surely is not the case with the only other selected Blue Dog with a perfect Democratic record on the eight issues: Rep. Jason Altimire (R-Pa.). He is a former Congressional aide and health industry lobbyist, and there does not seem to be anything conservative about him. He apparently joined the Blue Dogs because he represents a swing district where former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-Pa.), whom he defeated in 2006, is trying again in 2008."

[Keystone Phil]

I was speaking from an electoral standpoint.

Well, then you'd realize how she's by far our best shot at the seat. Do a little more research on her electoral history (2006 aside).

[Mr.Phips]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

Very unlikely.  That district is increasingly Democratic and Murphy is very popular there. 

[Mr.Phips]

Jason Altmire hasn't really lived up to his "moderate Democrat" label.  Bob Novak highlights this in a recent article from Human Events
(http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26694)

"But that surely is not the case with the only other selected Blue Dog with a perfect Democratic record on the eight issues: Rep. Jason Altimire (R-Pa.). He is a former Congressional aide and health industry lobbyist, and there does not seem to be anything conservative about him. He apparently joined the Blue Dogs because he represents a swing district where former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-Pa.), whom he defeated in 2006, is trying again in 2008."

I wouldnt really call Bob Novak an independent election prognosticator.