IN-dications of an upcoming House cleaning?

[MarkWarner08]

Some background info: In 2006, Democrats netted three new House seats from Indiana. One of the earliest supporters of Baron Hill's comeback bid and the Democratic challenges in IN-02 and IN-08 was Evan Bayh. When the national pundits were downplaying the competitiveness of IN-02, Bayh held several early fundraisers for nine point 2004 loser Joe Donnelly. While Bayh was raising funds for these House Democratic candidates, he was also out filling his campaign coffers -- all the way up to $10+ million for a likely '08 POTUS bid.

Whichever party controls the the Governorship and one of Indiana's two legislative chambers will control redistricting. With the State Senate firmly in Republican hands and the State House split 51/49 in favor of the Democrats, the tiebreaker is the Governorship. If Mitch Daniels wins, the GOP is a lock to control redistricting. A Democratic gubernatorial win and a 2010 hold on the Hosue will allow them to gerrymander.


While many Democrats groaned when their party nominated Jill Long Thompson, Indiana's version of Harold Stassen,  those groans have been quieted by the entrance of a far-right third part candidate who is intent on sapping support from Mitch Daniels. Beyond the usual statewide implications, a Long Thompson win could save the Democrats come redistricting time. This matters because a couple of excised precincts in IN-02, the subtraction of Bloomington from IN-09 and some tweaking of IN-08 will restore the GOP's commanding 7-2 House delegation advantage. 

Since Bayh has passed on the Presidential race and is unlikely to need his money for at least four years, it is now up to him to assert his role as leader of the IN Democratic Party and save his three Democratic House allies.

Atlas forumites, do you agree that Bayh must embrace Long Thompson and hope that his popularity can help carry the Democratic nominee to victory?

[Mr.Phips]

Yes, I agree with you here about Bayh helping Long-Thompson.  However, Republicans would really only be able to signifacntly hurt either Ellsworth in IN-08 or Hill in IN-09.  They could take away Bloomington and give him some very Republican Ohio border counties, but where will they put Bloomington, IN-08?  That would just make Ellsworth much safer.  It would take some serious gerrymandering to seriously undermine Donnelly in IN-02.  I guess they could give him all of Elkhart, but that would likely make IN-03 more competitive for a Democrat and Tim Roemer won easily in the 1990's when IN-02 included all of Elkhart. 

If Long-Thompson does win and Democrats hold the state House, Ellsworth could be slightly strengthened by giving him the college town of Lafayette in exchange for some of his very Republican counties that border IN-04.  Hell, if Democrats got really ambitious they could weaken Pence in IN-06 by giving him Fort Wayne and Marion in exchange for some of his heavily Republican territory at the Southern end of the district. 

[JSojourner]

Bayh and Long-Thompson have worked well together in the past and will again.  Evan Bayh is nothing, if not a team player.  Both he and Long-Thompson are pretty conservative Democrats, too.  She is more of an agricultural wonk and he is more of a foreign policy guy but they are both pretty much in sync on major issues facing Indiana and the nation.  True enough, Bayh supported Long-Thompson's opponent in the primary.  Jim Schellinger was an awesome candidate and even I -- a huge fan of and a personal acquaintance of Jill's -- was tempted to support him.  His business acumen has real appeal. 

But Long-Thompson understands politics and endorsements and she is not one to hold a grudge.  So she and Bayh should be just fine.  She has chosen a running mate already, but will not name that person until the state party convention.  That story ran on the Indiana AP wire today.  It could be Schellinger, in fact.  It would be a logical move for him, since he has no prior political experience.

As to Congress, I can't see Indiana's current district breakdown change without some serious gerrymandering.  Altough, as a resident of IN-03, nothing would give me more pleasure than to see the weasley, wimpy, mental midget that is Mark Souder return to his country estate in Grabill or his 800 thousand dollar home in Sycamore Hills.  But I can't see Mike Montagano pulling off an upset win.  Not if the venerable Tom Hayhurst couldn't do it two years ago.