Name the next three U.S. Presidents

[Person Man]

Funny. I see Jindal as a McGovern-like figure by 2012.

[Person Man]

Funny. I see Jindal as a McGovern-like figure by 2012.

As in loses badly?

Well, that, and being basically the ultra-radical who is so conservative that people will question if he really believes in democracy.

[Person Man]

Obama, Santorum, Rahm Emmanuel

Santorum? ewwww...

[Person Man]

I really have no idea how Huck will give us a fair tax. Does he raise taxes on the rest of us or does he give tax cuts to the fat asses (However, many fat asses don't appear fat because they can afford daily liposuction).  In Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis wants a flat tax by the former. The dawn of the tax-and-spend compassionate conservative, anyone? More solvent but even more statist than their unevolved form, the borrow-and-spend compassionate conservative.

[Person Man]

Gary Johnson sounds like a pretty....interesting guy. Do you think he would have a chance? He seems like Ron Paul 2.0.

[Person Man]

Jason Altmire (2021-2029)

Very interesting. He has appeal but he's not the Big League type.

Yes, pretty much what I was going to say-

This is what I think will happen-

Barack Obama (2009-2017)
Stephane Herseth-Sandlin (2017-2021)
Charlie Crist (2021-2029)

[Person Man]

Yes, pretty much what I was going to say-

This is what I think will happen-

Barack Obama (2009-2017)
Stephane Herseth-Sandlin (2017-2021)
Charlie Crist (2021-2029)

I refuse to vote for anyone with a hyphenated last name.

You aren't going to vote for her, anyway.

[Person Man]

What about a post-Rounds era? Sandlin could do very well in the Gubatorials in 2010 and perhaps get tapped by Obama in 2012 (Palin, but with real experience) or run in 2016.

[Person Man]

Why not Edwards ? Lot of things can happen in 8 years... If it's not Edwards, it will be Clinton or Biden, but I'm sure that we'll have at least 12 years of democratic government.

Edwards dug himself one of the deepest political graves by cheating on his wife (who happens to be suffering from cancer) and there are rumors that he fathered his mistress' child.

I thought he was caught in TWO affairs...

[Person Man]

Barack Obama (2009-2013)
Newt Gingrich (2013-2017)
Barack Obama (2017-2021)
John Thune (2021-2029)

Obama is 44...and 46.

[Person Man]

For reference, let's go back to Ike and from six months into the administration of each president, see where the next two future presidents were.

With respect, such an exercise doesn't really work unless you were following politics closely all those decades ago.  You write for example that it would be crazy to pick Reagan as a future president in the mid-70s because of his age.  But Dole was widely viewed as a potential 1996 candidate as early as 1992, despite the fact that no one over 70 had ever won the nomination of either major party.  So it's possible that Reagan was widely viewed as a likely challenger in 1980 years in advance.  I don't know, because I'm not old enough to have been following politics back then.

Likewise, Bush was a darkhorse possibility for Ford's VP in 1976.  It's possible that he was being discussed as a possible future presidential candidate as far back as the first year of Carter's term.  Though I don't know if he was or not, because I wasn't around then.  And people were apparently talking about Clinton as a future presidential candidate in the 1980s (though again, I'm too young to have been following politics back then, so I'm just repeating what I've read).

You're right that we are very unlikely to guess the exact circumstances under which someone becomes president in the future, but there's a very good chance that one or more of the names mentioned in this thread will someday be president.  Most recent presidents were known at least to political junkies at least 8 years in advance of them being elected.  Not GW Bush or Obama, true, they both came on the scene less than 8 years before being president.  But it's too early to say whether that's an aberration or the new normal.

Yes, it's guesswork.  I'm just trying to get into the mindset with the info I have. 

The internet has made the observance of political junkies an easier task.  In 85, 7 years before he got elected, Clinton was largely unknown until his flop of a nomination speech in 1988.  But if a place like this existed, we'd know about him as a governor in his late 30s, a strong politician from the same region as the last Democratic president.  On the other hand, six months into Reagan's first term, he was a guy who had served two years as governor of Arkansas then been voted out of office.  It seems a much less likely to predict he'd make a comeback and be the 2nd president after Reagan.  I'm just trying to guess but I assume someone like Ted Kennedy, Bill Bradley, Al Gore, Gary Hart or Joe Biden would have been a more common prediction.

Dole and Reagan are a little different in that by the time Dole was nominated Reagan was already a precedent of a president who- except the first 3 weeks of his term- was in his 70s.  And of course the game here is guess subsequent presidents so if you guessed Dole would become president in spite of his age, you'd be wrong.  Six months into Nixon's first term, Reagan was 57 and a plausible pick as the next president immediately after Nixon.  But if in 1969 -I'm speculating- you picked Reagan to be elected in 1980, I'm just assuming that would be a less likely pick to make when we'd never had a president in his 70s.  (Note how few people pick Biden or even Hillary here even with the precedent.)  Dole was the age Reagan was nominated for a 2nd term and 4 years before the election is a bit easier to pick. 

Also given the rarity of a single White House term for a party, it would have been more common to pick two terms for Nixon and if a Democrat succeeds him, two for that guy.  Actually, while no one knew Watergate would happen, given how common assassinations were in the 60s, six months into Nixon's term, it wouldn't have been unreasonable to think Nixon wouldn't finish his term (though a bit vulgar to predict it in a game perhaps.)

I think it's very likely the next president is now known to us- maybe only as a candidate in next year's elections, or maybe someone more obvious like Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney.  As for who is elected in 2020 or 2024, it could be someone like Jindal or Gillibrand or Gabrielle Giffords or Paul Ryan.  But I think there are also very good chances it's someone who won't be elected to anything for another 5-10 years.

That's pretty much how 2008 was. Obama really was just a freshman state legislator when W. was first sworn in. Then again, John McCain was almost nominated instead of W. and appear on the ballot for his party in 2008. So. You can ask yourself this question- at the start of his forerunner's presidency, how many times was the next president actually known to the American People? In 1994, Bush took the nation by storm in the Contract On America by becoming Governor of Texas. In 1980, Herbert Walker was already the VEEP. In 1976, Reagan had been floating around forever. In 1968, very few people knew who Carter was and I am not sure that he was even a Governor yet. In 1960, Nixon was already Vice President. In 1953, JFK was in his 30s and had just gotten out of the Navy. In 1945, people already saw Eisenhower as one of the greatest statemen that America had or would ever have...both parties sought for him to join as he made the likes of Snowe or Schuler look radical....before 1945, I wonder whether people thought that FDR would ever leave..

[Person Man]

to 2017       Barack Hussein (D, IL)
2017-2021  Jon Huntsman    (D, UT)
2021-??     

I don't have the Party identification wrong on Huntsman; he will have left or been purged from the Republican Party.  By 2018 the Republican Party will have gone the way of the Federalists and Whigs (or States' Rights at the absolute worst; in 1968 one of its few card-carrying members was James Earl Ray). By 2020 the Democratic Party is so unwieldy that it splits into a Social Democratic Party and a Christian Democratic Party as American politics become more ... European.

That's a good point. In most of European countries such people as Brownback, Bush, Coburn of Inhofe would be nothing more than a bunch of fringe politicians without any significance and probably out of any parliament. But in U.S. they are, scary to say, in some way mainstream.

Well, even in Poland in worst case guys like Bush, Coburn or DeMint woule be members of some very fringe, minor party as present League of Polish Families

The same applies to people like Bernie Sanders, Dennis Kucinich or Barbara Boxer. According to U.S. standarts they are "far-left", but in Europe they'd regular social democrats.

Hmmm... and the US is the most economically successful country at the moment and, if trends continue, will recover from this recession faster than many European countries.

Anyway, the Republicans aren't going anywhere. There's a reason they've survived 150 years.

....and the U.S. is one of the fattest countries. I think our greed is a double-edged sword. If you are greedy, but  your life up, you will just be another fat ass. If you are greedy and succeed, you can hire someone to put you on a diet, or "just have the surger(ies)" and be rich AND hot. Very nice.

...back to the topic at hand. The Democrats and Republicans have about a 60% chance to survive as long as the United States Constitution isn't been overturned. That could be 50 years or even a few years. That could be 2000 years or even more. I would say that in the other 40%, it would probably be that one wing of one party that cannot be dislodged even when their leadership has caused ruin. If this happens, one party will probably start to splinter into a bunch of third parties and a new 2nd party will eventually come back, with the help of moderates from the dominant party. The wheels could have been set in motion if the Democrats lost in 2006 or lost in 2008 and let McCain have his way (or if both happened- 2006 to start the process and 2008 to reenforce it). I would give it a 5% that any party would become totally dominant for more than 10 years. You could say that the dems did this between 1930 and 1950 or the pubs did between 1896 and 1912, but the party was only the "best" party in America because there was an anti-administration coalition between moderates and the minority party. There was the "Progressive/Bull-Moose Coalition" or the "Southern/Conservative Coalition", for example. However, in these times, its unlikely that a "Coalition" would actually form outside of getting the public option dropped for a co-op plan. There are just too many angry rednecks and angry hippies. So, if anger is allowed to stew for more than say 3 or 4 elections of one-party dominance, the other party will start to break up. So, a second party forming straight from the moderates of another party doesn't make much sense.

[Person Man]

See. This is why I have so much contempt for Ron Paul. He has two first names. And I will be damned if I ever trust a dude, or chick for that matter, that has two first names.

[Person Man]

You're slowing down my computer. So no, I am not playing in your game.

[Person Man]

2017-2021--Chris Christie
2021-2025--John Hickenlooper
2025-1115985--Deth-Tron the Mutilator

Is he related to Brawndo the Thirst Mutilator?