TX: Rasmussen: McCain with a 13% lead

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Texas President by Rasmussen on 2008-06-05

Summary: D: 39%, R: 52%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[charltonNick]

where in Texas would Obamas strongest area be? I'm guessing in and around Houston, or perhaps Austin.

[Verily]

Austin (Travis County), clearly, followed by Dallas County. Houston proper is more Democratic than Dallas proper, but the way counties are arranged makes Dallas County much more favorable to Obama. Although this is ignoring what will be immense Democratic margins, as usual, across parts of southern Texas (where Bush's home state advantage was strongest), but that has little to do with Obama.

[Sam Spade]

Austin (Travis County), clearly, followed by Dallas County.

You're missing El Paso, but ok...

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I suspect that's not true, but regardless the difference is not that great.

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Actually, it really has little to do with county organization.  Rather, it has to do with the fact that there is no place left to develop in Dallas County, unless you turn to the black areas down south in the county and out west, and whitey won't go there.  That makes Dallas County's suburbs rapidly aging.  The reason why county organization doesn't matter is because Collin County is the same way (without the blacks), so the suburbs expand over into Denton or Kaufman, etc.  Tarrant County is a different place - same rules don't apply there.  And there's not that much to develop there either.

In Harris County, there are still wide swaths of land to the west, northwest, north and especially northeast that remain rural and prime for new suburban development.  Harris County is unlikely to change much in the near future, unless there's some major change in voting patterns or something.  Dallas is a different story entirely.

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Two of the things I'm most curious about in this election is whether the border Hispanics show up for Obama and whether the Texas evangelicals show up for McCain (I already suspect they won't show up in Bush numbers).  Oddly enough, if both don't, you'll see Democratic numbers up in hyper-Republican suburbs compared to Texas PV margin and not that much change against the Texas PV margin in the Hispanic areas.

[Alcon]

This poll was conducted slightly earlier than the others, before any apparent Clinton bounce.  Not that it matters.

[The Mikado]

Austin (Travis County), clearly, followed by Dallas County. Houston proper is more Democratic than Dallas proper, but the way counties are arranged makes Dallas County much more favorable to Obama. Although this is ignoring what will be immense Democratic margins, as usual, across parts of southern Texas (where Bush's home state advantage was strongest), but that has little to do with Obama.

You're missing the Valley.  (Without the special connection to Texas Hispanics George W. Bush cultivated, the Valley should trend towards Obama)

[The Mikado]

Fits in pretty well with my prediction that Obama hits around 42% in TX in the general.

[Sam Spade]

Austin (Travis County), clearly, followed by Dallas County. Houston proper is more Democratic than Dallas proper, but the way counties are arranged makes Dallas County much more favorable to Obama. Although this is ignoring what will be immense Democratic margins, as usual, across parts of southern Texas (where Bush's home state advantage was strongest), but that has little to do with Obama.

You're missing the Valley.  (Without the special connection to Texas Hispanics George W. Bush cultivated, the Valley should trend towards Obama)

Southern Texas is the Valley.

[Eraserhead]

This poll was conducted slightly earlier than the others, before any apparent Clinton bounce.  Not that it matters.

Why wouldn't that matter?

[Democratic Hawk]

[The Mikado]

Austin (Travis County), clearly, followed by Dallas County. Houston proper is more Democratic than Dallas proper, but the way counties are arranged makes Dallas County much more favorable to Obama. Although this is ignoring what will be immense Democratic margins, as usual, across parts of southern Texas (where Bush's home state advantage was strongest), but that has little to do with Obama.

You're missing the Valley.  (Without the special connection to Texas Hispanics George W. Bush cultivated, the Valley should trend towards Obama)

Southern Texas is the Valley.

My bad, I missed his last sentence.

[Padfoot]

Fits in pretty well with my prediction that Obama hits around 42% in TX in the general.

It also further solidifies the fact that the GOP is NOT going to get more than 60% here.  Bush was able to push it over that marker but McCain is not going to be anywhere close to it.  He'll get 57% max.

[Person Man]

Yeah. I agree with Padfoot. If McCain landslides, he COULD get to 60, but if Obama does, McCain might only get like 54 or 55.

[Brittain33]

Actually, it really has little to do with county organization.  Rather, it has to do with the fact that there is no place left to develop in Dallas County, unless you turn to the black areas down south in the county and out west, and whitey won't go there.  That makes Dallas County's suburbs rapidly aging.  The reason why county organization doesn't matter is because Collin County is the same way (without the blacks),

I'm not sure I can parse what you're saying about Collin County. Could you explain?

I'm pretty shocked to see its population has grown from 490,000 to nearly 700,000 from 2000 to 2006. That's just ludicrous by any standard, mostly because Georgia's counties are geographically so much smaller while Maricopa is enormous. I can't imagine what it looks like on the ground.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think 42%-43% is Obama's ceiling in Texas.  Since 1976, when Jimmy Carter won the state outright, the best Democratic performances have been 43% in 1988 and 1996.  My prediction:

TEXAS PRESIDENT -
56% (R) McCain
42% (D) Obama