What's the deal with PA?

[Keystone Phil]

Well, considering Tom Corbett is a moderate with enemies in the state (his primary in 2004 was fiercely contested) and only won by 1.5%, yeah I'd say he should be a little worried about his chances for reelection.

Tom Corbett is a moderate? Oh, really?

He's going to have a tough run but the Dem candidate is pretty weak. 

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It doesn't bother me that McCain is trailling here and nationally now. It's expected. Once McCain reminds people of his maverick nature and once Republicans start to get energized here (Obama isn't getting a free ride, my friend) then we'll see what the polls say.

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People aren't happy with Obama's perceived elitism, the Wright scandal, perceived inexperience, etc. I'm not the only one saying it. The Dems here are worried. I posted a poll a few weeks ago which was commissioned by a local Dem running for office here. They polled McCain vs. Obama. McCain is up by double digits in an area that Kerry won by double digits. Don't get so cocky when you are observing from afar.

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This isn't just about spite. This is about a true disconnect.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Right now PA and NC are polling the same, so if PA is a pure toss-up then NC is too.

*Edit* Of course I mean NC is polling 5% for McCain and PA is polling 5% for Obama.

[Keystone Phil]

Right now PA and NC are polling the same, so if PA is a pure toss-up then NC is too.

Except that PA has a history of being a close state towards the end of the campaign. North Carolina doesn't.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Right now PA and NC are polling the same, so if PA is a pure toss-up then NC is too.

Except that PA has a history of being a close state towards the end of the campaign. North Carolina doesn't.

True, I'm not saying PA will not end up being a toss-up state again, but right now its not.

[Keystone Phil]

True, I'm not saying PA will not end up being a toss-up state again, but right now its not.

Who cares?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Right now PA and NC are polling the same, so if PA is a pure toss-up then NC is too.

*Edit* Of course I mean NC is polling 5% for McCain and PA is polling 5% for Obama.

For your sake, I hope NC goes to the Democrats in your lifetime. It seems to be your life dream.

[cp]

Your right that this is about a true disconnect, but it doesn't involve Obama.

McCain's no longer the candidate you're portraying him to be. He's moved to the right while PA has moved to the left. The gulf between them now is FAR greater than you realize and has placed  that state out of McCain's reach. Those polls that don't worry you are a sign of this. The only time McCain was ahead was when both his potential opponents were running attack ads against one another. Obama's going to have a cakewalk in the state during the general election compared to the primary. McCain can't muster the organization or the money to contest PA the way Clinton did (keep in mind that PA was by no means a landslide victory for Clinton)

McCain had a chance in 2000 when he was a maverick and a moderate. He's neither of those things anymore. He's been sucking up to the religious right and beating the conservative rhetoric drum non-stop through the primaries and he's shown no sign of meaningful change since he secured the nomination - which was 4 months ago, btw!

To call him a maverick is a joke. As much as I hate the cliche Obama is the 'change' candidate. He's the outsider. He's the breath of fresh air. McCain's been in Washington for 25 years. How exactly is he going to 'change' the place he's spent the last quarter century?

As for being cocky: ignoring 6 weeks of professional statewide polling data and relying on a local poll commissioned weeks ago. Now THAT'S cocky.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's going to have a cakewalk in the state during the general election compared to the primary. McCain can't muster the organization or the money to contest PA the way Clinton did (keep in mind that PA was by no means a landslide victory for Clinton)

McCain had a chance in 2000 when he was a maverick and a moderate. He's neither of those things anymore. He's been sucking up to the religious right and beating the conservative rhetoric drum non-stop through the primaries and he's shown no sign of meaningful change since he secured the nomination - which was 4 months ago, btw!

To call him a maverick is a joke. As much as I hate the cliche Obama is the 'change' candidate. He's the outsider. He's the breath of fresh air. McCain's been in Washington for 25 years. How exactly is he going to 'change' the place he's spent the last quarter century?

The problem is that the majority of the public still see McCain as the moderate and maverick in the race. Sure, people on here see him as Bush II, but when he's out attacking the administration on Katrina, campaigning on climate change and the like, it's hard to say he's a cookie cutter Bush II candidate, even if he has moved right recently.

Obama is no more of a "change" candidate as McCain is. He's spent his entire life in politics and is a product of the Chicago machine. He may be a Washington outsider, but he's hardly a new comer when it comes to politics. He's played the same dirty, corrupt political game that anyone else has played, and maybe even more so if you look at the guys he's connected with. McCain's spent his life fighting to "change" things, while Obama has spent his life voting with his party in just about everything. If anything, McCain has shown he has the ability and capacity to change things, while Obama seems to be hoping the Democrats can get a filibuster proof majority in the upcoming elections so he can push through his change agenda. How exactly will Obama "change" Washington when he hasn't changed anything in his life. At least McCain has a record of attempting to work across party lines for change. That can't be said about Obama. You can say "I am change" all you want, but it won't convince me that you are when your record says something totally different.

It's no more a joke to call McCain a maverick is to say Obama can actually bring change. Yes, McCain has been sucking up to the religious right because he knows he'll need their support in this election just like Obama sucked up to the far anti-war left and sucked up to people like Rezko, Wright and Aires when he was running for political office in Chicago. It would be foolish to alienate them if either wants to win.

You're also falling for this myth that McCain will be severely disadvantaged in fundraising and simply won't be able to compete, which is false. If you look at May's fundraising numbers, the RNC + McCain are even or slightly ahead of Obama + DNC. He'll have an advantage, but some of you and others are under the impression that he'll be able to advertise and stump in all 50 states and McCain won't be able to keep up. The GOP will have plenty to go around this cycle, which I guess will surprise a lot of you.

FWIW, I do believe Obama has the advantage in Pennsylvania at this moment, but in no way will he have a "cakewalk" come November.

[Keystone Phil]

Your right that this is about a true disconnect, but it doesn't involve Obama.

Oh, of course not. Now I'll read over the Obama talking points which ignore every possible weakness of Obama.

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To call him a moderate is a joke. That doesn't mean people don't see him that way. He's definitley a maverick though.

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Because McCain hasn't been known to take a stand against the establishment interests especially on issues like spending? Right...

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Professional polling isn't targetting specific areas like Northeast Philadelphia. I'm willing to believe a local Democrat's (who has no reason to want to see those numbers) poll that shows a serious weakness for his party's nominee for President. But keep ignoring it. You've got all the answers. Obama doesn't have a disconnect. Not at all.

[J. J.]

I think you are forgetting something:

1.  How many voters say "Obama" but are thinking, "I'll never vote for a Black guy."

2.  How many voters are saying "Obama," but thinking, "I don't like Obama, I'm going to vote for McCain, but I don't want to sound racist."

[cp]

Ugh, I just typed out a full rebuttal to the last four posts and I accidentally closed the window. Sadly it's late here and I have to head off so I'll just end with:
 

You've got all the answers.

Of course I do. I'm glad you finally realized it.

[Keystone Phil]

Ugh, I just typed out a full rebuttal to the last four posts and I accidentally closed the window.

That old excuse? 

[Josh/Devilman88]

If McCain wins PA, then he wins, NV, CO, NM, WI, MI, OH and MO too.

[elcorazon]

If McCain wins PA, then he wins OH and MO too.

fixed.  totally disagree on Michigan.  The western states, I agree are more likely to go McCain than PA, but possible that Obama remains popular there, but loses some support in PA, so I'd argue Obama could win CO, NV, etc. and still lose PA (unlikely but possible)... on the other hand, if he loses PA, Ohio and Missouri are likely lost as well.

[HardRCafé]

Since Missouri and Ohio went Republican the last two elections while Pennsylvania went Democrat, I am not sure I understand the logic there.

[Sbane]

Professional polling isn't targetting specific areas like Northeast Philadelphia. I'm willing to believe a local Democrat's (who has no reason to want to see those numbers) poll that shows a serious weakness for his party's nominee for President. But keep ignoring it. You've got all the answers. Obama doesn't have a disconnect. Not at all.

Umm professional polling does not need to target specific areas to get a good idea of what is happening statewide. You may be right that Obama is weaker than Kerry in northeast philly as well as Bucks, but he might have strength somewhere else. Also Kerry did as bad as it is possible for a democrat to do in western pa so I do not see Mccain getting a big margin there. I would bet that turnout will be low in that area as well. The suburbs are where Obama will have to make up this disadvantage in the working class areas of philly. I am eagerly awaiting a good PA poll with crosstabs.

[Keystone Phil]

Professional polling isn't targetting specific areas like Northeast Philadelphia. I'm willing to believe a local Democrat's (who has no reason to want to see those numbers) poll that shows a serious weakness for his party's nominee for President. But keep ignoring it. You've got all the answers. Obama doesn't have a disconnect. Not at all.

Umm professional polling does not need to target specific areas to get a good idea of what is happening statewide. You may be right that Obama is weaker than Kerry in northeast philly as well as Bucks, but he might have strength somewhere else. Also Kerry did as bad as it is possible for a democrat to do in western pa so I do not see Mccain getting a big margin there. I would bet that turnout will be low in that area as well. The suburbs are where Obama will have to make up this disadvantage in the working class areas of philly. I am eagerly awaiting a good PA poll with crosstabs.

Uh...it outlines an underlying problem for Obama. If a Democrat is weaker in a traditionally Democratic area (in a big city no less), I doubt you'll find many areas that he'll be stronger to make up for it.

Obama is probably worse for western PA than Kerry was. I doubt you'll find many that disagree.

[Sbane]

Professional polling isn't targetting specific areas like Northeast Philadelphia. I'm willing to believe a local Democrat's (who has no reason to want to see those numbers) poll that shows a serious weakness for his party's nominee for President. But keep ignoring it. You've got all the answers. Obama doesn't have a disconnect. Not at all.

Umm professional polling does not need to target specific areas to get a good idea of what is happening statewide. You may be right that Obama is weaker than Kerry in northeast philly as well as Bucks, but he might have strength somewhere else. Also Kerry did as bad as it is possible for a democrat to do in western pa so I do not see Mccain getting a big margin there. I would bet that turnout will be low in that area as well. The suburbs are where Obama will have to make up this disadvantage in the working class areas of philly. I am eagerly awaiting a good PA poll with crosstabs.

Uh...it outlines an underlying problem for Obama. If a Democrat is weaker in a traditionally Democratic area (in a big city no less), I doubt you'll find many areas that he'll be stronger to make up for it.

Obama is probably worse for western PA than Kerry was. I doubt you'll find many that disagree.

I doubt Obama does worse than Kerry in Western PA in such a bad economic year. Well he may run a little behind Kerry but that will just erase Kerry's lead. The areas I am worried about are northeast pa as well as the area you are from. But the polls have shown that Obama is leading so he must be doing well somewhere. Also before you bash me for relying on polls, you are also assuming Obama is doing bad in your area based on a poll. I noticed that PA has not been polled for almost a month now so perhaps things have changed. Like I said I am eagerly awaiting for one.

[Keystone Phil]

you are also assuming Obama is doing bad in your area based on a poll. I noticed that PA has not been polled for almost a month now so perhaps things have changed. Like I said I am eagerly awaiting for one.

Well, sure I am basing it off of that but I want to see more polls as well (closer to the election).

[Torie]

McCain needs to cut into the Philly burb vote, or it's curtains for him. Counting on same material  erosion of the Dem base in rustbelt Clintonia vis a vis Bush 2004 just isn't going to cut it.

[Aizen]

Have we come to a conclusion regarding what the deal with PA is?

For that matter, what's the deal with airline food?

[Torie]

Have we come to a conclusion regarding what the deal with PA is?

For that matter, what's the deal with airline food?

I am in a state of confusion about PA, actually. The polls showing Obama doing better in PA by about 5% than the nation don't fit into my little paradigm, so I am just going to patient for awhile.

[Sbane]

Have we come to a conclusion regarding what the deal with PA is?

For that matter, what's the deal with airline food?

I am in a state of confusion about PA, actually. The polls showing Obama doing better in PA by about 5% than the nation don't fit into my little paradigm, so I am just going to patient for awhile.

Yeah I really want to see a poll out of PA after the Clinton bump. Remember Obama is up by 6-8% right now so dont be surprised if Obama is up in PA by about 8-10 points.

[© tweed]

What happened? I don't know, maybe McCain hasn't led in a single poll since April?

That doesn't explain why McCain only has a 25% chance of winning here. It's June.

Intrade's individual state contracts are low-volume at this point.  and 25% is pretty significant, believe it or not.