Is CNN Mentally Challenged?

[Padfoot]

After seeing their prediction map I can only conclude that the yahoos at CNN have no idea what they're talking about.  You can take a look for yourself here and I've also posted an atlasized version below:

McCain:194
Obama:190
Tossup: 154

There are so many wacky things going on here I'm not even sure where to begin.  The state's they've listed as safe are pretty accurate but after they must have started drinking. 

New Mexico stands out as one of the most glaring inaccuracies.  LEAN MCAIN???  Out of the 8 polls we have here from SUSA and Rasmussen only one has shown McCain leading and two have shown the race tied.  One shows Obama leading within the MOE while the remaining 4 show him leading outside the MOE.  If this state were going to lean anywhere it would be towards Obama.  They could at least have some sense and make it a tossup.  In fact, I'd say the only two lean McCain states they got right are North Carolina and Indiana.  The others they have listed are all out of play as far as I'm concerned.

They've also gone a bit overboard with the tossup states, IMO.  OH, VA, NH, NV, CO, MO, and WI make sense to me given past electoral history as well as current polling.  I suppose PA can be excused given Obama's poor performance there during the primary but since then he seems to have rebounded nicely.  However, its still early and I'm willing to give them this one for the time being.  MI can also be temporarily excused since all the most recent polls prior to the delegate decision showed McCain leading but I'd expect the abnormally large number of "undecideds" to break heavily for Obama now that the primary mess is finished.  Given the strange circumstances though its OK as a tossup for now. 

That leaves us with Minnesota and Iowa.  Iowa has been one of the nations most noted swing states in past elections so I understand the impulse to classify it as such again.  However, any casual political observer should be able to tell that it won't be the case this year.  Obama has a clear advantage here for numerous reasons and I don't think any respectable political prognosticator should be calling it anything less than leans Obama.  While the final outcome may very well be with 5 points I'd say Obama has an 80% chance of winning the state.  As for Minnesota, CNN has apparently been drinking the Pawlenty kool-aid the GOP has been passing out lately.  Minnesota is not a tossup state people.  Its one of the most reliably Democratic states on the map and is leans Obama at worst.

As for the states they've actually classified as Obama leaners, all four of them are safe Obama states.  Unless McCain landslides he's not going to come close in any of them and even then he'd be lucky to actually win one of them.

So in summary, CNN has absolutely no idea how to make a worth while prediction.  Thoughts?

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Mexico stands out as one of the most glaring inaccuracies.  LEAN MCAIN???  Out of the 8 polls we have here from SUSA and Rasmussen only one has shown McCain leading and two have shown the race tied.  One shows Obama leading within the MOE while the remaining 4 show him leading outside the MOE.  If this state were going to lean anywhere it would be towards Obama.  They could at least have some sense and make it a tossup.  In fact, I'd say the only two lean McCain states they got right are North Carolina and Indiana.  The others they have listed are all out of play as far as I'm concerned.

Must be a "we don't care what the polls say, we all know that Hispanics hate black people" thing....

[HardRCafé]

If you ignore which are light and dark, map makes perfect sense.

[Meeker]

If you ignore which are light and dark, map makes perfect sense.

New Mexico?

[Hash]

It's not perfect, but isn't entirely awful (save NM).

[Hash]

I read some comments on there. People there must be smoking something.

"McCain isn't leading LA, GA, and NC".

[Eleanor Martins]

I don't see how that map is egregiously wrong.

[dead0man]

It's not news, it's CNN.

[HardRCafé]

I read some comments on there. People there must be smoking something.

"McCain isn't leading LA, GA, and NC".

Obama 34%
McCain 33%
Barr 33%

Such is the reasoning.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Obama not winning all 57 states?    No wonder Obamanuts hate it.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Let's cut CNN a break......Hillary has conceded and Bill is getting press again for banging the ladies.

The Clinton News Network will bounce back to their normal standard of horrible programming.

[dead0man]

No missing white women either.  CNN loves them some missing white women.  Not as much as FoxNews of course.  Nobody loves missing white women like Fox News.

[Albus Dumbledore]

The MSM is terrible for the most part.

[Lief 🗽]

With Iowa, I think CNN (and other news networks) are a little wary about making any state, at this point, a lean take-over for the other party, even though it's clear that the state is lean Obama at the moment.

[Bacon King]

at least all the states are labelled correctly...

[Kushahontas]

lol on victory night i saw the cnn "board analysis" and it was so weird seeing MN go republican while GA goes democrat

[elcorazon]

I've seen them go thru the "analysis" of Obama's chances and they tend to keep Iowa and New Mexico Republican, while making Virginia and Georgia Democrat.  Weird.  I think they're just stupid.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

At least West Virginia and Kentucky are no longer tossups. About a month ago during their primaries, CNN said they were both tossups come the general.

[elcorazon]

At least West Virginia and Kentucky are no longer tossups. About a month ago during their primaries, CNN said they were both tossups come the general.

during the height of hillarymania, the spin was that the swing states were Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, New Jersey, New York, Texas and California.

Obama was only winning the little bitty red states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Missouri, and all the south except for potentially winnable states like tennessee and Arkansas.

[Sbane]

It would be funny if they are assuming Mccain has an advantage in New Mexico due to it being a neighboring state. In fact if that advantage exists anywhere, it is in Nevada. The idiots at CNN must not know that AZ and NM are two very different states.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It would be funny if they are assuming Mccain has an advantage in New Mexico due to it being a neighboring state. In fact if that advantage exists anywhere, it is in Nevada. The idiots at CNN must not know that AZ and NM are two very different states.

their line of thinking seems to be "McCain will win New Mexico and Nevada because Arizona is right next to them!

[Joe Republic]

at least all the states are labelled correctly...

I came here to say pretty much the same thing.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=58914.0

[Sbane]

It would be funny if they are assuming Mccain has an advantage in New Mexico due to it being a neighboring state. In fact if that advantage exists anywhere, it is in Nevada. The idiots at CNN must not know that AZ and NM are two very different states.

their line of thinking seems to be "McCain will win New Mexico and Nevada because Arizona is right next to them!

The pattern of population in the west is very different from other areas. People dont really live in rural areas, especially in the desert, and most states are just composed of cities. So in that case I do not see how phoenix would have anything in common with albuquerque or santa fe. Las vegas may be influenced by proximity to Arizona and it is not too far from Phoenix. People from Nevada and Arizona I think tend to have more interaction, than they have with New mexico. These "analysts" just basically dont know sh**t and they rely on the fact that their viewers know even less than them.

[War on Want]

Most news analysts=idiots. I actually saw a good map on CBS though, with Minnesota as a leaning blue state and other good changes.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It would be funny if they are assuming Mccain has an advantage in New Mexico due to it being a neighboring state. In fact if that advantage exists anywhere, it is in Nevada. The idiots at CNN must not know that AZ and NM are two very different states.

their line of thinking seems to be "McCain will win New Mexico and Nevada because Arizona is right next to them!

The pattern of population in the west is very different from other areas. People dont really live in rural areas, especially in the desert, and most states are just composed of cities. So in that case I do not see how phoenix would have anything in common with albuquerque or santa fe. Las vegas may be influenced by proximity to Arizona and it is not too far from Phoenix. People from Nevada and Arizona I think tend to have more interaction, than they have with New mexico. These "analysts" just basically dont know sh**t and they rely on the fact that their viewers know even less than them.

yet another reason why the west doesn't have a strong regionalist mentality.