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Author Topic: Rasmussen Weekly Congressional Ballot  (Read 7824 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 10, 2008, 01:05:35 pm »
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Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 34%

The telephone survey found that voters who say Economic issues are the top concern favor Democrats by a 60% to 22% margin. Those who view National Security issues as number one prefer Republican candidates by a 54% to 31% margin.

Democrats are favored by both men and women, all age groups, and all education levels. Barack Obama’s party holds a very narrow three-point edge among White voters, lead a 91% to 4% lead among African-American voters, and a fourteen point advantage among all other voters.

The survey also found that just 17% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction. Seventy-nine percent (79%) disagree and say the U.S. has gotten off on the wrong track.

The national telephone survey of 7,423 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 2-8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 1 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence.

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« Reply #1 on: June 13, 2008, 01:19:14 pm »
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According to WSJ/NBC, Democrats now enjoy a 52-33 Congressional Ballot advantage, according to CNN it's 54-44 ...
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« Reply #2 on: June 13, 2008, 01:53:41 pm »
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These poll don't mean anything concrete, though.
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« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2008, 09:20:31 pm »
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Ambinder noted that Democrats now enjoy the largest margin on the Congressional ballot since the 1995 budget standoff.  Happy days aren't here for Congressional Republicans.
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2008, 11:53:04 am »
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Tuesday 17 June, 2008

Democrats - 48% (+1)
Republicans - 34% (nc)

From now through Election Day, Rasmussen Reports will track the Generic Congressional Ballot on a weekly basis.

The telephone survey of 7,000 Likely Voters found that those whose top concerns are economic issues choose the Democratic candidates over Republicans by a 58% to 24% margin. Republicans have the advantage among voters whose top concern is national security by a 51% to 35% margin.

When it comes to fiscal issues, the Republicans have the advantage by a 52% to 26% margin. On Domestic issues such as Social Security and Health Care, the Democrats have an overwhelming forty-one point advantage. On Cultural issues, which include same-sex marriage and abortion, the Republicans have the solid advantage.

As for voters not affiliated with either major political party, 37% would choose their Democratic candidate, while just 24% would vote Republican. The parties are essentially tied when it comes to white voters, while Democrats are overwhelmingly favored by black voters.

Forty-four percent (44%) say economic issues are most important this year while 23% name national security issues. Those figures have changed little in recent weeks but are markedly different from Election 2004.

The survey also found that just 16% of voters believe America is heading in the right direction. The majority (80%) say America is going down the wrong track

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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2008, 08:28:35 pm »
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Wednesday 25 June, 2008

Democrats - 47% (-1)
Republicans - 34% (nc)

The telephone survey of 7,000 Likely Voters found that of those voters who consider themselves moderate on fiscal issues, such as taxes and government spending, 59% would vote for their Democratic candidate, while 20% would vote Republican. Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters who consider themselves fiscally conservative would vote for the Republican candidate, while 21% would vote for the Democratic candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) of fiscally liberal voters would vote Democratic, while just 7% would vote Republican.

When it comes to social issues, voters who consider themselves socially moderate would choose to vote Democratic by a 47% to 30% margin. Republicans, not surprisingly, have the advantage among socially conservative voters, by a 61% to 24% margin. Three out of four socially liberal voters would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate, while just 10% would vote Republican.

The Democrats lead 43% to 38% among men and 51% to 31% among women.

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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2008, 08:07:40 pm »
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Wednesday 2 July, 2008

Democrats - 47% (nc)
Republicans - 35% (+1)

Among voters who earn less than $20,000 annually, Democrats lead 64% to 22%. Among those in the $20,000 to $40,000 range, Democrats lead 49% to 32%. Republicans are more competitive in higher income brackets but even among those who earn more than $75,000 annually, Democrats lead 44% to 39%.

When it comes to issues, 41% of voters consider economic issues to be the highest priority. Among these voters, Democrats lead 59% to 25%.

However, 24% say that national security issues are most important. Among these voters, Republicans lead on the Generic Ballot 51% to 34%. Democrats also lead among the 11% who see domestic issues like Social Security and Health Care as most important.

During Election 2004, more than 40% of voters consistently rated national security issues as most important and just one-in-four thought economic issues were the key voting issue.

On the Generic Ballot, Democrats now lead by nineteen percentage points among women and just four percentage points among men. Barack Obama’s party leads by two points among White voters and 92% to 4% among African-American voters. Among all other voters, Democrats lead by fourteen.

The survey of 7,000 Likely Voters found that just 16% believe the United States is heading in the Right Direction. Seventy-nine percent (79%) say we have gotten off on the wrong track.

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« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2008, 06:11:20 pm »
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Tuesday, 8 July, 2008

Democrats - 47% (nc)
Republicans - 34% (-1)

Among voters who see economic issues as the most important in the upcoming election, 58% would vote Democratic while just 25% would vote Republican.

This week’s data shows that 42% consider economic issues to be the top priority while 23% believe national security issues are most important.

On the generic ballot, the Democrats enjoy a 43% to 38% advantage among men and a 51% to 31% lead among women.

The Democrats steady lead on the Congressional ballot may surprise some when considering that just 9% of voters give the current Congress good or excellent ratings, representing the lowest approval rating in tracking history. Just over half (52%) say Congress is doing a poor job.

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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2008, 06:09:55 pm »
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Tuesday, 15 July, 2008

Democrats - 46% (-1)
Republicans - 36% (+2)

The two parties are even among men but Democrats enjoy an eighteen point lead among women.

Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Republicans and Democrats are essentially even in this poll. But, there are more Democrats in the nation than Republicans.

While the Democrats have a 56% to 26% advantage among voters who see economic issues as the top issues of the election, the Republicans lead 57% to 29% among voters who think that of National Security. Democrats have a big lead among voters who see domestic issues, such as health care and Social Security, as the most important in the upcoming election. Republicans have the advantage among voters who believe Cultural and Fiscal issues are the most important.

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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2008, 01:01:33 pm »
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Tuesday, 22 July, 2008

Democrats - 45% (-1)
Republicans - 36% (nc)

The parties are tied at 41% among men, while women prefer their Democratic candidates 49% to 33%. Republicans have a 45% to 36% lead among white men, while Democrats are favored 42% to 39% among white women. Both black men and women overwhelmingly support the Democrats.

The Democrats have a big advantage among voters who think economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. A separate national poll finds that the economy is the top issue among voters. National security if often the second most important issue to voters, and among voters who see this issue as top priority, the Republicans have a 54% to 33% advantage. The GOP also has the advantage among voters who value cultural and fiscal issues most.

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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2008, 05:22:23 pm »
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Tuesday, 29 July, 2008

Democrats - 47% (+2)
Republicans - 34% (-2)

The Democrats have moved further ahead of the GOP in newest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if given the choice, 47% of voters would choose their district’s Democratic candidate, while 34% would choose the Republican candidate.

Support for the Democrats is up four points from last week and three points from two weeks ago. The party’s thirteen point lead is identical to the lead Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s party enjoyed early in July.

While Democrats have opened a bigger lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, the race for the White House remains tight in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

On the Congressional Ballot, support for both parties has stayed in a very narrow range. Since weekly tracking on this question began in June, support for Democratic Congressmen has ranged from 45% to 48%. Support for the GOP has ranged from 34% to 36%. Over the past year, support for Democrats has ranged from a low of 43% to a high of 50%. Over that same time, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.

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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2008, 05:13:42 pm »
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Tuesday, 5 August, 2008

Democrats - 46% (-1)
Republicans - 36% (+2)

While each party receives over 80% support from party members, the Democrats have a 33% to 29% advantage among unaffiliated voters. The Democrats lead 51% to 32% among women, but lead by just a 42% to 41% margin among men.

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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2008, 02:55:34 am »
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These poll don't mean anything concrete, though.

I'd be most interested in how the generic (D) fairs against the (R) for voters that have no opinion on the two candidates running in their district.

As of now, this could possibly hint towards some uninformed voters breaking towars the Democrats, right?  Kind of a hard statistic to read this way or that I suppose.
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2008, 04:50:31 pm »
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Tuesday, 12 August, 2008

Democrats - 45% (-1)
Republicans - 37% (+1)

This week, the parties are tied at 41% among men, but the Democrats retain a big 49% to 33% lead among women. While both Democrats and Republicans receive big support from voters in their own parties, the Democrats continue to lead among unaffiliated voters, 33% to 28%. Another 30% of unaffiliated voters are not sure which candidates they would choose.

While Democrats have overwhelming leads among voters who make $40,000 or less, voters with higher incomes are more evenly divided. Democrats have a 44% to 40% advantage among voters who make between $40,000 and $60,000 per year, while the GOP has a 44% to 37% edge among voters who make between $60,000 and $80,000 per year. Democrats lead 44% to 40% among voters who make over $100,000 per year.

The Democrats have just a 43% to 41% lead among investors, but lead 53% to 30% among non-investors. Barack Obama’s party also fairs much better among single voters than married voters. The Democrats lead 58% to 25% among single voters, while the Republicans have a 42% to 40% edge among married voters.

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« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2008, 06:47:21 pm »
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Tuesday, 19 August, 2008

Democrats - 46% (+1)
Republicans - 36% (-1)

Voters who consider themselves conservative on fiscal issues, such as taxes and government spending, choose Republicans by a 65% to 20% margin. Meanwhile, Democrats have the advantage 59% to 20% among fiscally moderate voters and 85% to 4% among voters who are fiscally liberal.

Democrats also have the advantage among socially moderate and liberal voters, while Republicans have a big lead among socially conservative voters. When it comes to foreign policy, Republicans lead 69% to 18% among conservatives, while the Democrats lead 54% to 26% among moderates and 82% to 6% among fiscal policy liberals.

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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2008, 11:13:50 am »
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Tuesday, 26 August, 2008

Democrats - 46% (nc)
Republicans - 35% (-1)

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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2008, 11:15:05 am »
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Wednesday, 3 September, 2008

Democrats - 46% (nc)
Republicans - 36% (+1)

In terms of education, the race is closest among college graduates. The Democrats have a 43% to 40% among voters whose highest level of education is a college degree. They also have a 50% to 33% advantage among voters who attended graduate school. Among voters who attended college but did not complete it, the Democrats lead 44% to 38%. The Democrats also hold double-digit leads among high school graduates and high school dropouts.

The Republicans have a 45% to 36% advantage among voters who are gun owners, while the Democrats lead 55% to 30% among those voters who do not own guns.

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« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2008, 11:38:43 am »
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These polls are always such teasers.  It's just like the polls where 70% of Americans say that Congress doesn't deserve to be re-elected but then that same 70% of Americans also say that they plan on voting to re-elect their own Congressional representation.


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« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2008, 04:57:26 pm »
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Can the OP change the title of this thread if it's going to be a weekly update? Obviously the news of change is going to be different from week to week...

Edit: Thank you!
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2008, 06:15:42 pm »
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Thursday, 11 September, 2008

Democrats - 45% (-1)
Republicans - 37% (+1)

Among voters not affiliated with either party, the Democrats have a 34% to 29% advantage. Women prefer Democrats by a 48% to 34% margin, while men are more evenly divided, with 43% who would vote Democrat and 41% who would choose Republican.

Voters who believe national security is the top electoral issue favor Republicans by a 60% to 27% margin; those who say the economy is the most important issue choose the Democrats by a 59% to 24% margin.

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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2008, 05:00:18 pm »
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Tuesday, 16 September, 2008

Democrats - 44% (-1)
Republicans - 38% (+1)

The parties are neck-and-neck among unaffiliated voters, with the Democrats earning support from 33% and the GOP from 31%. Among men, the GOP has a 43% to 40% advantage. Among women, the Democrats lead 48% to 34%.

Democrats have a 63% to 19% lead among voters who characterize themselves as pro-choice on the issue of abortion, while Republicans lead 64% to 21% among voters who are pro-life.

The GOP leads 47% to 38% among voters who shop at Wal-Mart several times a month, while the Democrats lead 56% to 27% among those who rarely or never shop there. The parties are nearly tied among voters who occasionally shop at the super store.

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« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2008, 01:16:28 pm »
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Thursday, 25 September, 2008

Democrats - 45% (+1)
Republicans - 38% (nc)

Voters who make under $40,000 a year overwhelmingly favor the Democrats, while voters who earn more are evenly divided.

Barack Obama’s party leads by double-digits among voters who did not graduate high school or whose highest degree is a high school diploma. Voters whose highest degrees are college diplomas favor the GOP by a 43% to 40% margin. Those who attended graduate school overwhelmingly favor the Democrats.

Rasmussen Reports tracking data also shows just 17% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction, while 78% think the country has gotten off on the wrong track. Those numbers have are decidedly more negative than last week, when 23% thought the nation was heading in the right direction and 73% thought it was going down the wrong track.

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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2008, 06:43:00 pm »
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Wednesday, 2 October, 2008

Democrats - 46% (+1)
Republicans - 37% (-1)

The Democrats have managed to hold a steady lead among unaffiliated voters nationwide for the second straight week. Just two weeks ago, the parties were essentially tied among this demographic. Now, the Democrats have a 36% to 28% advantage.

White voters remain divided between the parties, with 42% who would vote GOP and 41% who choose Democrat. Black voters overwhelmingly choose the Democrats by a 77% to 11% margin.

Voters who say economic issues are their top concern in the upcoming elections favor the Democrats by a 59% to 26% margin. Voters who view national security as the key issue overwhelmingly favor the GOP.

Men are also evenly divided among the parties, with 41% who sway Republican and 43% who choose Democrat. Women choose the Democrats by a 50% to 34% margin.

Rasmussen Reports tracking data also shows just 13% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction, while 84% think the country has gotten off on the wrong track. Those numbers have are decidedly more negative than last week, when 17% thought the nation was heading in the right direction and 78% thought it was going down the wrong track.

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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2008, 04:57:35 pm »
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Tuesday, 7 October, 2008

Democrats - 45% (-1)
Republicans - 37% (nc)

The Democrats continue to hold on to a solid lead among unaffiliated voters nationwide. The latest numbers show the Democrats with a 34% to 28% lead. However, just less than a third of unaffiliated voters (30%) are not sure which party they would choose.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

White voters remain divided between the parties, with 42% who would vote GOP and 40% who choose the Democrat. Black voters overwhelmingly choose the Democrats by an 80% to 9% margin.

Men are evenly divided among the parties at 41% each. Women favor Democrats by a 49% to 34% margin.

Rasmussen Reports tracking data also shows just 10% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction, while 86% think the country has gotten off on the wrong track. Those numbers have are decidedly more negative than last week.

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« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2008, 12:32:47 pm »
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Thursday, 16 October, 2008

Democrats - 46% (+1)
Republicans - 38% (+1)

Men continue to be divided between the parties, while women consistently support the Democrats. While 41% of men would vote Republican, 42% would vote Democratic. Women choose Barack Obama’s party by a 49% to 35% margin (see full crosstabs).

Voters who have served in the military favor the GOP by a 45% to 36% margin. Those who have not served vote Democrat, 48% to 36%. The same is true for voters who have family serving in the armed forces. Those who do have loved ones serving choose the GOP, 42% to 38%, while those who do not vote Democrat by a 48% to 37% margin.

Voters who consider the economy to be the most important issue of this year’s election overwhelmingly favor the Democratic party, while those who say national security is the top issue heavily favor the Republicans.

Rasmussen Reports tracking data also shows just 10% of voters believe the nation is heading in the right direction, while 87% think the country has gotten off on the wrong track. Those numbers have changed little over the past week.

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