US Senate InTrade rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Seats ranked by Democratic odds

DE 97.5
IL 97.0
AR 95.0
IA 95.0
MT 95.0
MA 94.5
RI 92.5
WV 92.5
MI 91.0
VA 82.5
NJ 80.0
SD 80.0
NM 79.0
NH 68.0
CO 65.0
MS 62.5 (special)
AK 60.0
LA 56.0
NC 44.0
MN 43.0
OR 35.8
KY 33.5
ME 23.7
NE 22.0
TX 22.0
ID 15.5
KS 13.5
TN 10.0
OK 7.5
WY 7.5 (special)
GA 7.0
MS 5.0
WY 5.0
SC 5.0
AL 3.5

LA is the only Democratic seat below 80.0. VA is a Republican seat above 80.0, so NJ & SD are the critical seats for the Democrats retaining the Senate; NM if they throw Lieberman under a bus.

Number of Democrats expected
Indys who caucus with Democrats not counted

<45  0.1
45-50 1.0
51-55 48.0
56-60 40.0
61-65 11.5
>66 0.2


There are only 1.1% odds that the Democrats will not gain more than 1 seat.
The money seems to be on 56.
There's no option for exactly 66 seats.

[Хahar 🤔]

MS at 62.5, eh? There must be a lot of Harrys.

[nclib]

Seats ranked by Democratic odds

SC 95.0

[DownWithTheLeft]

MS at 62.5, eh? There must be a lot of Harrys.

And Alaska at 60?  Seems pretty skewed to the Dems, although I am assuming SC is a typo or something

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Seats ranked by Democratic odds

SC 95.0

InTrade is down, but I changed that to 5.0.

[Verily]

MS at 62.5, eh? There must be a lot of Harrys.

And Alaska at 60?  Seems pretty skewed to the Dems, although I am assuming SC is a typo or something

You do know that Stevens is trailing in all polls, right? And that his corruption scandal is only going to get worse? I'd say Alaska is probably more likely for the Democrats than New Hampshire and Colorado at this point.

Also, given that Mark Pryor will be opposed only by the Green Party, shouldn't Arkansas be the safest Democratic seat? Free money...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Also, given that Mark Pryor will be opposed only by the Green Party, shouldn't Arkansas be the safest Democratic seat? Free money...

The ones at 95.0 or 5.0 may not have had a trade. Anything >=95 or <=5 should be considered rock solid.

[7,052,770]

MS at 62.5, eh? There must be a lot of Harrys.

or just most people outside this forum aren't so convinced of a Wicker victory.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MS at 62.5, eh? There must be a lot of Harrys.

or just most people outside this forum aren't so convinced of a Wicker victory.

Intrade does little more than following the polls.  I made a good chunk of change playing the expectation game in Maine's gubernatorial race in '06.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Seats ranked by Democratic odds

DE 97.5
IL 97.0
IA 95.0
MA 94.5
MT 93.7
RI 92.5
WV 92.5
MI 91.0
AR 90.0
NM 85.5
VA 81.1
SD 81.0
NJ 77.5
NH 74.0
CO 70.1
MS 60.0 (special)
LA 60.0
AK 55.0
MN 40.0
OR 40.0
NC 35.0
KY 33.5
TX 30.0
KS 27.0
ME 26.0
NE 14.0
ID 11.4
TN 10.0
SC 8.1
WY 8.0 (special)
OK 7.5
GA 7.0
WY 5.0
AL 3.5
MS 0.5

LA is the only Democratic seat below 77.  VA and NM rank above 77, and so the critical seat for
retaining the Senate with a Democratic VP: VA
retaining the Senate w/o a Democratic VP: SD
retaining the Senate or with a Dem VP while throwing Lieberman under a bus: SD
retaining the Senate w/o a Democratic VP while throwing Lieberman under a bus: NJ

Number of Democrats expected
Indys who caucus with Democrats not counted

<45  0.1
45-50 0.5
51-55 45.0
56-60 39.1
61-65 10.1
66 odds not given
>66 0.2
Median seems to be 56

[Brittain33]

Seats ranked by Democratic odds

DE 97.5
IL 97.0
AR 95.0
IA 95.0
MT 95.0
MA 94.5
RI 92.5

All of these except for Delaware are as safe as a CD and pay better interest. What's the catch?

[© tweed]

Seats ranked by Democratic odds

DE 97.5
IL 97.0
AR 95.0
IA 95.0
MT 95.0
MA 94.5
RI 92.5

All of these except for Delaware are as safe as a CD and pay better interest. What's the catch?

as a non-pricemaker you have to pay fees to Intrade on your profits.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

as a non-pricemaker you have to pay fees to Intrade on your profits.

Actually, everyone has to pay fees on their profits.  It's only the non-pricemakers who have to pay fees on their trades.

Investing 97.5 to win 100 is essentially a losing propostion on Intrade.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Well, at least they realize NJ is the GOP second best opportunity