What if Sebelius had run in 2008?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm curious about what you guys think about the following two hypotheticals:

1) Kansas Gov. Sebelius runs for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008 and Hillary Clinton *doesn't*.  Clinton decides to just stay in the Senate, and go for Majority Leader.  How does Sebelius do against Obama?

2) Sebelius runs *as does Clinton*.  Do they split the feminist "let's make history" vote so much that Obama easily takes the nomination?

[Wakie]

1) Sebelius gets her butt kicked as she would be a relative unknown and, well, a woman.

2) Sebelius steals a lot of the feminist vote from Hillary and gets blamed for Hillary's defeat.

[Mr. Morden]

1) Sebelius gets her butt kicked as she would be a relative unknown and, well, a woman.

Wouldn't the fact that she was a woman help her a great deal?  I mean, Obama didn't become famous just because of his 2004 convention speech.  The fact that he's the first viable black presidential candidate helped him enormously in terms of media coverage.  Why wouldn't the same have happened for Sebelius if she had run instead of Clinton?  Sebelius also wouldn't have had all the baggage that HRC has, though of course HRC had enormous advantages as well.

[AltWorlder]

Carol Moseley Braun was both, so she must have won.

[Mr. Morden]

Carol Moseley Braun was both, so she must have won.

Carol Moseley Braun was a nut, who was too far out of the mainstream to have a real chance.  Sebelius is mainstream enough that she'd be taken seriously.

[Wakie]

1) Sebelius gets her butt kicked as she would be a relative unknown and, well, a woman.

Wouldn't the fact that she was a woman help her a great deal?  I mean, Obama didn't become famous just because of his 2004 convention speech.  The fact that he's the first viable black presidential candidate helped him enormously in terms of media coverage.  Why wouldn't the same have happened for Sebelius if she had run instead of Clinton?  Sebelius also wouldn't have had all the baggage that HRC has, though of course HRC had enormous advantages as well.

No, Obama actually has an enormous amount of natural charisma.  I see no reason to believe that Sebelius has the same sort of charisma.  Additionally it is harder to succeed as a woman than as an African American.  Shirley Chisholm (amongst other famous African American women) said that of her two "reasons for minority status" she felt society was tougher on her for her gender than for her race.

[DownWithTheLeft]

1) Sebelius gets her butt kicked as she would be a relative unknown and, well, a woman.

Your right, Barack Obama has no chance because he's a relative unknown, and, well a black.

Anyway, Sebelius is about 50X the GE candidate Obama is, map:

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius/Sen. Joe Biden
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Charlie Crist

[Verily]

1) Sebelius gets her butt kicked as she would be a relative unknown and, well, a woman.

Wouldn't the fact that she was a woman help her a great deal?  I mean, Obama didn't become famous just because of his 2004 convention speech.  The fact that he's the first viable black presidential candidate helped him enormously in terms of media coverage.  Why wouldn't the same have happened for Sebelius if she had run instead of Clinton?  Sebelius also wouldn't have had all the baggage that HRC has, though of course HRC had enormous advantages as well.

All of that doesn't change that Kathleen Sebelius would not really have been different from Chris Dodd as a candidate. She wouldn't have had much in the way of funding or name recognition. She might have picked up some votes for being a woman, but not anywhere close to the way Clinton did. Clinton was famous, and a lot of middle-aged women had already empathized with her during the whole Lewinsky affair.

Sebelius wouldn't have made it past New Hampshire, although her Plains origins might have given her a decent showing in Iowa (~10%), particularly the most rural areas where Edwards did well.

Of course, no Clinton in the race means plenty of others who gave up early on or never jumped in probably would have run: Vilsack, Bayh, maybe Warner, possibly someone like Schumer would was never really considered.

[Mr. Morden]

All of that doesn't change that Kathleen Sebelius would not really have been different from Chris Dodd as a candidate. She wouldn't have had much in the way of funding or name recognition.

Her name recognition would have become much higher than Dodd's simply because she would be the only woman in the race, and that would draw lots of attention.  I agree with you that it likely wouldn't have taken her as far as Clinton, but I think there's a good chance she would have made it to the 1st tier.

[© tweed]

1) Sebelius gets her butt kicked as she would be a relative unknown and, well, a woman.

Your right, Barack Obama has no chance because he's a relative unknown, and, well a black.

hardly an unknown after the 2004 DNC speech.  if he didn't give that speech, he wouldn't be the nominee (nor would he have run)