California

[GPORTER]

could we auctually have a chance at this state this year. with the latino vote having favored Clinton and a good part of them not feeling very comfortable with Obama and willing to support McCain. How close could this state be?

[WalterMitty]

no.

[Sbane]

2004 results are the best possible for the GOP. The latino vote in california will have no problems voting for Obama and will give him at least Kerry numbers.

[Keystone Phil]

Uh...

[ChrisFromNJ]

Yes. McCain will win California and Obama will win Kansas.

Remember all the hurt and outrage from the right when somebody said that Obama might win Kansas? I wonder if we'll hear the same when somebody mentions that McCain might win California.

[Stranger in a strange land]

the votes are there to make it close. despite what some of you may think, a good part of the latino voters are favorable to McCain partly because of his stance on illegal immigration.

no, the votes are not there. Even if Obama does horribly with the Latino vote the state still won't flip because it's simply too polarized to do so in the current environment.

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uh, polling disagrees with you.

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yes, because there are so many  Hollywood actors and they're a huge, important swing constituency!

[Sbane]

the votes are there to make it close. despite what some of you may think, a good part of the latino voters are favorable to McCain partly because of his stance on illegal immigration. these latinos came out in big numbers for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and again came out in big numbers for Hillary Clinton this year. many of these latino voters are not satisified with Obama and because of the illegal immigration, could very well vote for McCain. McCain is also somewhat popular with some actors and actresses in Hollywood, atleast compared to Bush,  which sometiimes plays a big part of the California vote.

California can and is in play. But, many of you do not agree.

Fine go ahead and spend money here, I am not complaining. Also who hollywood is voting for means s*** to voters. And you think latinos only vote on illegal immigration? You have no idea what you are talking about. Mccain will do well with latinos in Arizona and perhaps texas but not california. It really is LA that kills all hope for republicans. Those latinos have consistently come out to support the democrats and there is no reason why it will not continue this year. They preferred Clinton to Obama but that does not mean they will not vote for the guy.

[Flying Dog]

Oh, I see, O.K., yea....no.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

the votes are there to make it close. despite what some of you may think, a good part of the latino voters are favorable to McCain partly because of his stance on illegal immigration. these latinos came out in big numbers for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and again came out in big numbers for Hillary Clinton this year. many of these latino voters are not satisified with Obama and because of the illegal immigration, could very well vote for McCain. McCain is also somewhat popular with some actors and actresses in Hollywood, atleast compared to Bush,  which sometiimes plays a big part of the California vote.

California can and is in play. But, many of you do not agree.

You're right when you say I don't agree. Hollywood is Obama paradise. These people want to get on their knees for him. Rudy Giuliani had the Republican Hollywood vote, not McCain. He might be seen as better than Bush as most of them may see him as a moderate. He could do about as well as Bush did in 2004, but I doubt he does any better. No way will it be close, meaning within 5%, unless Obama implodes and McCain wins in a landslide.

Yes. McCain will win California and Obama will win Kansas.

Remember all the hurt and outrage from the right when somebody said that Obama might win Kansas? I wonder if we'll hear the same when somebody mentions that McCain might win California.

McCain winning California is a stretch, but California was once a GOP stronghold and hasn't been 60%+ for the Democrats yet. You also won't find any of us defending him, as some did with the Kansas prediction. This doesn't compare to North Dakota, Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, etc ..

[Alcon]

There's really a lot of California-misunderstanding going on.

1. McCain is unlikely to do as well among California Hispanics as Bush, and he will certainly not win them.

2. Celebrities are not a huge voting bloc in California.  They are not a huge voting bloc in Hollywood.  They are vastly outnumbered by quote-unquote-actors, young folks who work mixed service industry and entertainment jobs.  Young urbanites...Obama...you do the math.

3. Obama is currently averaging about +13 in California polls.  How badly do you think they're off Margin of Error, really?

[Keystone Phil]

Remember all the hurt and outrage from the right when somebody said that Obama might win Kansas? I wonder if we'll hear the same when somebody mentions that McCain might win California.

GPorter always gets hell from everyone . This is nothing new.

[Albus Dumbledore]

If the Republicans were more centrist and had a 50 states strategy as opposed to dixie hard right protestant populism California would be easily winnable for them.

[Alcon]

I don't really buy this claim that Bush reached all the ceilings in all the Democratic states.

That I disagree with, no doubt

Bush was reelected by record low numbers remember

Eh?

And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics,

He'll struggle mightily - Hispanics are nowhere near as GOP-friendly this year as in 2004.  Hispanic GOP support collapsed during 2006.

possibly even winning them.

That would sure be a hat trick.

[Sbane]

I don't really buy this claim that Bush reached all the ceilings in all the Democratic states.  Bush was reelected by record low numbers remember, that's definitely not the best a Republican can do, painful as that may be to Democrats.  And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics, possibly even winning them.

Is this all based off fantasy? Do you personally see hispanics cheering on Mccain. Like I said before just because latinos preferred Clinton does not mean they will not vote for Obama. Turnout will be lower and the PV margin will be too but Bush heavily overperformed with hispanics in 04. The reason why Bush did not win in a landslide was because the anti-war areas gave a good margin to Kerry. Bush really connected with hispanic voters which Mccain is going to have to prove he can do. He has done it in his homestate but can he do it all over the country? He will have to in NV,CO and NM but he will not do it in CA just because of money. Oh if you still dont think Bush did well with hispanics in CA, just compare 2000 and 2004 numbers for hispanic majority districts.

[Lunar]

McCain does not have a chance at California because he does not have the crazy money required to spend in LA media markets at what is a long shot at best.  End of story.

[Democratic Hawk]

And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics, possibly even winning them.

On the other hand, most Hispanics seem to have developed a great distaste for the Republican Party. They voted Democrat 69% to 30% in 2006; a marked shift on they cast their votes in 2004

Preferring Clinton against Obama, in a Democratic primary, is not reflective of an extreme distaste Hispanics have towards Obama; therefore, it doesn't follow that they, for the most part, won't be supporting Obama in the general

Of course, I don't doubt that those Hispanics, who identify as being Republican or as independent conservatives will be supporting McCain

Dave

[JSojourner]

Yes. McCain will win California and Obama will win Kansas.

Remember all the hurt and outrage from the right when somebody said that Obama might win Kansas? I wonder if we'll hear the same when somebody mentions that McCain might win California.

No.  Because (on this forum, anyway) when a Democrat says Obama might win Kansas...or, hell...North Carolina...he's a partisan hack.  When a Republican says McCain might win Calfornia...or, oh I dunno...Vermont...he's just being enthusiastically optimistic and positive.

Seriously though -- both sides have their share of unrealistic prognosticators.  And that's true here on the forum and elsewhere.  Some knucklehead on MSNBC was talking about Obama possibly winning Georgia today.  And a couple days ago, Fox had some Einstein predicting a McCain surprise in Connecticut.

[Sbane]

Seriously though -- both sides have their share of unrealistic prognosticators.  And that's true here on the forum and elsewhere.  Some knucklehead on MSNBC was talking about Obama possibly winning Georgia today.  And a couple days ago, Fox had some Einstein predicting a McCain surprise in Connecticut.

Honestly some of these people do not know what they are talking about. They do not understand Obama is not the candidate to swing southern whites to the democrats. Also they are hyping up these unregistered blacks too much. They may provide a couple points swing throughout the south but I doubt it will be anything more than that. I think these people also tend to live in the past and judge how a state will vote more on past performance than demographics, which I feel is the best way to prognosticate.

[zombones]

no.

[Keystone Phil]

No.  Because (on this forum, anyway) when a Democrat says Obama might win Kansas...or, hell...North Carolina...he's a partisan hack.  When a Republican says McCain might win Calfornia...or, oh I dunno...Vermont...he's just being enthusiastically optimistic and positive.

I'm glad you paid attention to the Republican comments in the thread thus far!

[Torie]

If McCain is winning the nation by 8%, California is in play. If he wins by 12% nationally, McCain will be favored in California. If the election is near even in popular vote percentages, the chance that McCain will win California, is well - zero.

[Kushahontas]

this isn't 1984! sure, they'll recognize mccain for being a bit more of a moderate on illegal immigration but at the end of the day: we vote based on economic issues. i think hispanics are going to eschew that and instead focus on the environment we live in currently: high gas prices, home foreclosures, taxes, etc. hell my county was INSANELY pro clinton during the primaries yet we're already embracing obama and it's very noticable. from the hood to treasure hills, he is cultivating support and if he can do it here, california is not going to be a problem whatsoever.

[Sbane]

I don't really buy this claim that Bush reached all the ceilings in all the Democratic states.  Bush was reelected by record low numbers remember, that's definitely not the best a Republican can do, painful as that may be to Democrats.  And what I really don't understand is the claim that McCain can't improve on Bush's numbers among hispanics.  The last I heard, Bush kept his immigration opinions pretty close to the chest in 2004 and McCain is very openly pro-open borders.  Not to mention we saw the extreme distaste hispanics have for Obama in the primaries.  My thinking is that McCain will do very well among hispanics, possibly even winning them.

Is this all based off fantasy? Do you personally see hispanics cheering on Mccain. Like I said before just because latinos preferred Clinton does not mean they will not vote for Obama. Turnout will be lower and the PV margin will be too but Bush heavily overperformed with hispanics in 04. The reason why Bush did not win in a landslide was because the anti-war areas gave a good margin to Kerry. Bush really connected with hispanic voters which Mccain is going to have to prove he can do. He has done it in his homestate but can he do it all over the country? He will have to in NV,CO and NM but he will not do it in CA just because of money. Oh if you still dont think Bush did well with hispanics in CA, just compare 2000 and 2004 numbers for hispanic majority districts.

Ha!  What's fantasy is saying Obama will improve on every demographic in every state, the popular position these days.  You clearly have not read my post, which states the clear facts I have behind my assumption.  Is it possible for things to go the other way?  Of course.  Is my prediction just as valid as yours?  Absolutely.  Get off yourself.  I've done my homework, too.  You go on about these past results and then go and remind us McCain has already connected with hispanics.  Uh, hello?  You're right, he has.  And there's no reason, using your logic of past results as future predictors, to believe he can't do it again.  We've seen that Obama can't and McCain can.  Therefore, one would assume the odds are in favor of McCain doing well with hispanics.  Make sense?  Thought so.

I said your prognostication on latinos was based on fantasy, just like those Obama supporters who think every demographic in every state will swing towards Obama. I do not believe that will be the case and I have never said so. Mccain has been able to connect to his own constituency of hispanics in Arizona but nowhere else. Hispanics in AZ have a personal connection with him and probably have a million reasons to vote for him. That is not the case in any other state and MCcain will have to start over. I agree he is better than any republican at getting the latino vote, but I still dont see him getting over 40% of it. Also just because latinos preferred one democrat over another, does not mean they will choose the republican over the democrat. Now I could be wrong but polling is backing me up right now. Things could of course change by election time.