NC: Rasmussen: McCain leads by 2

[TheresNoMoney]

McCain will win North Carolina, but he'll have to spend a lot of time and money there.

allow me to mark this down.

Please do.

[Gustaf]

You really are ignorant, aren't you?

I'm getting confused by all the spin and talking points from the right wing echo chamber.

You've used right wing echo chamber too many times. Try using the expression "free pass" instead, that one never gets old. Suggestion for new sentence:

"The right wing echo chamber is giving McCain a free pass"

[bullmoose88]

You really are ignorant, aren't you?

I'm getting confused by all the spin and talking points from the right wing echo chamber.

You've used right wing echo chamber too many times. Try using the expression "free pass" instead, that one never gets old. Suggestion for new sentence:

"The right wing echo chamber is giving McCain a free pass"

One can certainly argue, rightfully or not, that I'm right of center, but to throw words around like right wing with me is well...laughable.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Okay, here it goes..... my prediction. 

NC
(D) Obama 50%
(R) McCain 49.5%

....shocker of the night.  (this is with my prediction that Obama takes the PV by 6-7 pts)

[exopolitician]

This REALLY makes me want to see a poll out of Virginia now. Uhg.

[King]

See, I told yall, not everything will be like 2004 forever.

Oklahoma will be.

[© tweed]

See, I told yall, not everything will be like 2004 forever.

July 2004: Bush 48, Kerry 45 in NC

[Verily]

McCain will win North Carolina, but he'll have to spend a lot of time and money there.

allow me to mark this down.

Please do.

The problem is that McCain will definitely not spend money in NC. If he's lost or really close to losing in NC, he's already lost the election elsewhere. So, in the event of an Obama landslide, McCain has to keep spending in must-win states like Virginia, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania even if North Carolina and Florida are threatening to vote for Obama. (Thus, in landslide elections like 1984, the states which swing least strongly are the states that both candidates needed to win in order to win the EV while safe states on both sides swing more strongly.)

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC will be in play of Obama wins nationally by 8% or more. Remember that Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in the summer of 2004, and NC went to Bush by 13% in November. Obama will not improve on Kerry's white numbers, so I don't think he has a huge chance there outside of a big national margin.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC will be in play of Obama wins nationally by 8% or more. Remember that Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in the summer of 2004, and NC went to Bush by 13% in November. Obama will not improve on Kerry's white numbers, so I don't think he has a huge chance there outside of a big national margin.

I think Obama will improve on white voters, but not by much. He will get 30% to 31%.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC will be in play of Obama wins nationally by 8% or more. Remember that Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in the summer of 2004, and NC went to Bush by 13% in November. Obama will not improve on Kerry's white numbers, so I don't think he has a huge chance there outside of a big national margin.

I think Obama will improve on white voters, but not by much. He will get 30% to 31%.

Highly, highly doubt he will do better than Kerry's 27% .. I expect him to get 25-27% in North Carolina and receive record amounts of black support. North Carolina is GOP +8% this cycle as of now, so if McCain wins the election NC will go 10% or more for him. Keep in mind most of NC's undecideds will break for the Republican candidate over the Democrat. In June, Bush lead Kerry by 6-7%, Kerry was within 3% in July, and within 3% in one poll again in October. NC polls closer than is really is, so many of you are getting excited right now for no reason barring an Obama landslide.

[Josh/Devilman88]

NC will be in play of Obama wins nationally by 8% or more. Remember that Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in the summer of 2004, and NC went to Bush by 13% in November. Obama will not improve on Kerry's white numbers, so I don't think he has a huge chance there outside of a big national margin.

I think Obama will improve on white voters, but not by much. He will get 30% to 31%.

Highly, highly doubt he will do better than Kerry's 27% .. I expect him to get 25-27% in North Carolina and receive record amounts of black support. North Carolina is GOP +8% this cycle as of now, so if McCain wins the election NC will go 10% or more for him. Keep in mind most of NC's undecideds will break for the Republican candidate over the Democrat. In June, Bush lead Kerry by 6-7%, Kerry was within 3% in July, and within 3% in one poll again in October. NC polls closer than is really is, so many of you are getting excited right now for no reason barring an Obama landslide.

Obama will get at least 30% of the white voters, the voting block in NC has changed over the past 4 year. Alot of  Northern whites have moved down from up north. Also in Nov, college students will be in school which will help him too. (Can out of state college students vote in NC?) Anyways if they can it will help him out too. I'm not saying Obama will win, but I right now think will be 5% more republican then the national number.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

NC will be in play of Obama wins nationally by 8% or more. Remember that Bush and Kerry were polling around these margins in the summer of 2004, and NC went to Bush by 13% in November. Obama will not improve on Kerry's white numbers, so I don't think he has a huge chance there outside of a big national margin.

I think Obama will improve on white voters, but not by much. He will get 30% to 31%.

Highly, highly doubt he will do better than Kerry's 27% .. I expect him to get 25-27% in North Carolina and receive record amounts of black support. North Carolina is GOP +8% this cycle as of now, so if McCain wins the election NC will go 10% or more for him. Keep in mind most of NC's undecideds will break for the Republican candidate over the Democrat. In June, Bush lead Kerry by 6-7%, Kerry was within 3% in July, and within 3% in one poll again in October. NC polls closer than is really is, so many of you are getting excited right now for no reason barring an Obama landslide.

Obama will get at least 30% of the white voters, the voting block in NC has changed over the past 4 year. Alot of  Northern whites have moved down from up north. Also in Nov, college students will be in school which will help him too. (Can out of state college students vote in NC?) Anyways if they can it will help him out too. I'm not saying Obama will win, but I right now think will be 5% more republican then the national number.

Out of staters cannot vote, as I was not allowed to register (though I had already voted in the SC primary). The colleges were in session in 2004 as well, so I don't know how that will factor. Durham and Orange Counties will be overwhelmingly Obama anyway. If NC was only 5% more GOP, then Obama should be ahead here right now during this bump he's seeing. NC always polls more favorably for the Dems but seems to go to the GOP comfortably on election day. In 1992, Clinton was projected to win there but Bush ended up taking it.

[classical liberal]

NC polling at national margin + 8% in the GOP's favor is exactly what I would have predicted.  That makes it lean GOP (since it would take a >5% win by the Democrats to flip it).