I'm beginning to think that we may see something interesting...

[Reaganfan]

I'm beginning to think that we may see something interesting...Obama win the popular vote while McCain wins the electoral vote.

The electoral map...even when you are "fair and balanced" but look for an Obama win...still doesn't go far beyond 278 electoral votes or so. However...it would seem that the popular vote totals for Obama will far surpass McCain's.

So...not to beat the drum from the year 2000...but do you think....again? I mean...is it possible...again??

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Yes, quite possible.

[Lief 🗽]

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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/how-electoral-college-hurts-gop.html

[Reaganfan]

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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/how-electoral-college-hurts-gop.html

Maybe...but I find it more likely than not for Obama to win the popular vote.

[Torie]

It is also quite possible that McCain could win the popular vote, and lose the election, as well. That could happen if McCain does in fact cut into the secular upper middle class vote in California and New York for example.

[War on Want]

I think lots of bad things would happen if McCain won the Electoral College and Obama the popular vote. Lots of riots...

[Reaganfan]

I think lots of bad things would happen if McCain won the Electoral College and Obama the popular vote. Lots of riots...

Let me guess.

1. Allegations of "disenfranchisement".
2. "Because he's black..."
3. Signs that say "Bush III" and "McShame"

Am I correct?

[emailking]

Either of them can engineer such a result (for kicks let's say) by campaigning in all the base areas that won't affect the electoral college one bit.

That's why a victory in the popular vote doesn't mean anything. Gore won the popular vote, sure. But if it had been about winning the most nationwide votes, we don't know what would have happened.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A uniform swing of between 2.10% and 2.46% to Kerry in 2004 would have resulted in him winning the electoral vote 284-254 without winning the popular vote. And now, the Democrat only needs 269 EV instead of 270 EV.

[War on Want]

I think lots of bad things would happen if McCain won the Electoral College and Obama the popular vote. Lots of riots...

Let me guess.

1. Allegations of "disenfranchisement".
2. "Because he's black..."
3. Signs that say "Bush III" and "McShame"

Am I correct?

Yeah pretty much. There is a lot of liberal anger and if McCain wins it will explode. I don't think lots of college kids and younger, poorer African-Americans could take it anymore, so they riot.

[Franzl]

I think lots of bad things would happen if McCain won the Electoral College and Obama the popular vote. Lots of riots...

Let me guess.

1. Allegations of "disenfranchisement".
2. "Because he's black..."
3. Signs that say "Bush III" and "McShame"

Am I correct?

which all would be true to a certain extent. what's the problem?

[Verily]

Naso, if McCain is way down in the polls in October, are we going to see a lot more posts like this?

(By the way, FiveThirtyEight's projections currently say it is significantly more likely that McCain will win the PV but lose the EV; about an 5.3% chance for that while about a 2.9% chance for Obama to do so.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyways, I think that for Obama, Kerry + NV + NM + CO + IA + OH + VA = 311 EV would be pretty realistic. There are more states that he would have a chance at, such as: MO, WV, FL.

[Franzl]

Anyways, I think that for Obama, Kerry + NV + NM + CO + IA + OH + VA = 311 EV would be pretty realistic. There are more states that he would have a chance at, such as: MO, WV, FL.

please explain how Obama is supposed to win West Virginia

[Albus Dumbledore]

If the republicans lose the electoral vote but win the popular vote they'll simply have the supreme court invalidate the democratic victory.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Anyways, I think that for Obama, Kerry + NV + NM + CO + IA + OH + VA = 311 EV would be pretty realistic. There are more states that he would have a chance at, such as: MO, WV, FL.

please explain how Obama is supposed to win West Virginia

Has a chance at. He could blanket the state with ads mentioning Mr. $50 an hour for lettuce picker's comments.

[Lincoln Republican]

I think lots of bad things would happen if McCain won the Electoral College and Obama the popular vote. Lots of riots...

Welll now, wouldn't that just be too bad for them.

They would simply have to learn that it is the winner of a majority of the Electoral Vote who wins the Presidency, not necessarily the candidate who wins more of the popular vote.

[ChrisFromNJ]

If the republicans lose the electoral vote but win the popular vote they'll simply have the supreme court invalidate the democratic victory.

Scalia is writing his decision in favor of the petitioner McCain as we speak...

[Lincoln Republican]

If the republicans lose the electoral vote but win the popular vote they'll simply have the supreme court invalidate the democratic victory.

And that is as it should be. 

Seriously though, I can only hope that Obama never gets the opportunity to pack the courts with leftist ideologue activist judges who do not understand the constitution, and who would attempt to impose their freedom suffocating ideology on the nation.

[zombones]

prediction:  obama will win between 290 and 300 electoral votes

[Nym90]

Sure, it could happen, for either candidate. JFern is correct in pointing out that in 2004, a Kerry win without winning the popular vote was more likely than a Bush win without the popular vote; everyone focuses on the split in 2000, but the Electoral College system actually favored Democrats in 2004 (though it should be noted that my opposition to it is still intact, despite this fact).

The idea that Obama's max in 278 electoral votes is ridiculous. I could easily see him getting up to 350 if the economy continues to suffer. It's not likely that he'll go above 298, but certainly possible. The notion that Ohio is out of reach for Obama is simply silly, however.

[J. J.]

Sure, it could happen, for either candidate. JFern is correct in pointing out that in 2004, a Kerry win without winning the popular vote was more likely than a Bush win without the popular vote; everyone focuses on the split in 2000, but the Electoral College system actually favored Democrats in 2004 (though it should be noted that my opposition to it is still intact, despite this fact).

The idea that Obama's max in 278 electoral votes is ridiculous. I could easily see him getting up to 350 if the economy continues to suffer. It's not likely that he'll go above 298, but certainly possible. The notion that Ohio is out of reach for Obama is simply silly, however.

Unless there a Dukakis style collapse, I see neither candidate breaking 330 EV's.

[opebo]

If the republicans lose the electoral vote but win the popular vote they'll simply have the supreme court invalidate the democratic victory.

And that is as it should be. 

Seriously though, I can only hope that Obama never gets the opportunity to pack the courts with leftist ideologue activist judges who do not understand the constitution, and who would attempt to impose their freedom suffocating validating ideology on the nation.

Corrected your ignorance.

[Lincoln Republican]

If the republicans lose the electoral vote but win the popular vote they'll simply have the supreme court invalidate the democratic victory.

And that is as it should be. 

Seriously though, I can only hope that Obama never gets the opportunity to pack the courts with leftist ideologue activist judges who do not understand the constitution, and who would attempt to impose their freedom suffocating validating ideology on the nation.

Corrected your ignorance.

Opebo, I thought you were going to validate my brilliance and insight.