-In a suprise for all in election night, John McCain becomes the 44Th President of the United States. The Democrats say that the Libertarians acted as the Ralph Nader of 2008 others say it was Hillary's supporters that made Obama loose, here's the official map of the US election of 2008. The closest state was Colorado which barley went to the Republicans, if it had went to Obama, he would have barley won th election by 2 Electoral Votes but that didn't happen and now we have President-Elect McCain.
Barack Obama/Bill Richardson(49%-261 EV)
John McCain/Bobby Jindal(47%-277 EV)
Bob Barr/Wayne Root(4%-0 EV)
Care to explain the 2008 Electoral College map Andy?
Whilst I know in your scenario that the Libertarians play the Nader role in this Election, but in my mind it would be highly unlikely that Obama would be able to pick up Indiana and Florida and yet lose Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania at the same time. Obama either wins the latter or he does not.
Especially considering that Florida's demographics are horrible for Obama and he would probably lose it even if he won the election.