Senate Predictions?

[Sam Spade]

Alaska is the great mystery to me.  I pretty much agree with everything else for the most part.  Part of the reason why is getting burned there in 2004.  Part of it is that I'm still not sure that I understand the state correctly. 

As an opening aside, I would obviously support Begich against Stevens - goes without saying.

But barring indictment of course, there are a lot of soft factors which lean me towards giving the edge to Stevens if the race appears close come October.  But of course, Alaskans are independent-minded, it's not like this is some Southern state.

A few musings - maybe more later, maybe not.

[HardRCafé]

Begich vs. Stevens could be like Allen vs. Webb, where one has to win in spite of huge negatives.

[Sam Spade]

When has there ever been an incumbent Senator this far back in polls this close to the election that actually won? 

Jesse Helms.

No kidding.

Burns was also down by more in 2006 and basically came within Bush not visiting his state of winning that election.

Was Allard ever up in any poll in 2002?

There are more that'll pop up into my mind, but I don't see this race as Santorum 2006, yet, far from it.

[Mr.Phips]

When has there ever been an incumbent Senator this far back in polls this close to the election that actually won? 

Jesse Helms.

Is this 1984 you are talking about?  Because he was behind Hunt in trial heats in 1983, but by this time in 1984 he was either even or ahead of him. 

[HardRCafé]

I would be extremely interested to know who or what ever showed him even, before the election.

[Ogre Mage]

It is VERY early, but my take is ...

Likely Takeover (2 Republican Seats)  Virginia, New Mexico

Lean Takeover (2 Republican Seats)  New Hampshire, Colorado

Tossup (2 Republican Seats, 1 Democratic Seat)  Alaska, Louisiana, Minnesota

Lean Retention (3 Republican Seats)  Oregon, Maine, Mississippi

Likely Retention (2 Republican Seats, 1 Democratic Seat)  North Carolina, New Jersey, Texas

All others appear safe.

This forecast would suggest, as others have said, a +4-5 Democratic pickup in the Senate.

[Mr.Phips]

I would be extremely interested to know who or what ever showed him even, before the election.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,923642,00.html

It says September polls showed the race a dead heat.  

[Sensei]

The ones that will flip barring some gaffe are
New Mexico
Colorado
New Hampshire
Virginia

Leaners are
Alaska
Lousiana (to R)
Minnesota
Oregon
Maine

The rest are pretty solid holds, maybe MS will get interesting.

[HardRCafé]

Is this 1984 you are talking about?  Because he was behind Hunt in trial heats in 1983, but by this time in 1984 he was either even or ahead of him. 

This is the middle of June.  That was the end of September.

Good link, though.

[7,052,770]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

[Brittain33]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

Stevens has done things wrong. Wicker hasn't.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

Do you really think that Begich is ahead because people like him more?  Think Frank Murkowski 2006, he would have been smashed by Knowles, but instead when Palin won the primary she won easily.  If someone beats Stevens in the primary, the race is over

[Sam Spade]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

Do you really think that Begich is ahead because people like him more?  Think Frank Murkowski 2006, he would have been smashed by Knowles, but instead when Palin won the primary she won easily.  If someone beats Stevens in the primary, the race is over

No one's beating Stevens in the primary unless he gets indicted.  Young is another question entirely.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

Do you really think that Begich is ahead because people like him more?  Think Frank Murkowski 2006, he would have been smashed by Knowles, but instead when Palin won the primary she won easily.  If someone beats Stevens in the primary, the race is over

No one's beating Stevens in the primary unless he gets indicted.  Young is another question entirely.

That still does not mean that Begich's support does not come heavily from anti-Stevens people.

[Sam Spade]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

Do you really think that Begich is ahead because people like him more?  Think Frank Murkowski 2006, he would have been smashed by Knowles, but instead when Palin won the primary she won easily.  If someone beats Stevens in the primary, the race is over

No one's beating Stevens in the primary unless he gets indicted.  Young is another question entirely.

That still does not mean that Begich's support does not come heavily from anti-Stevens people.

Well, duh.  Where else would you expect it to come from, pro-Stevens people?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Honestly, I find it pretty weird that people are way more confident that a six-term senator in a >60% Bush state (Stevens) losing to a mayor, than in a six-month senator in a <60% Bush state (Wicker) losing to a former lt. governor and governor.

But that's just me.

Do you really think that Begich is ahead because people like him more?  Think Frank Murkowski 2006, he would have been smashed by Knowles, but instead when Palin won the primary she won easily.  If someone beats Stevens in the primary, the race is over

No one's beating Stevens in the primary unless he gets indicted.  Young is another question entirely.

That still does not mean that Begich's support does not come heavily from anti-Stevens people.

Well, duh.  Where else would you expect it to come from, pro-Stevens people?