Gay Marraige will be legal in 50 years

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Keep hoping.... if the right thinks this is just a cultural fad, you guys are in for a rude shock.

[afleitch]

The poll I saw done by Washington Post and ABC shows that 41% of people believe that gay marraige should be legal, and 55% feelt hat it should not be legal.  But there is an encouraging sign in this poll.

This poll shows that 18-29 year olds favor gay marraige legalization, and 42% oppose.  But for those 65 and older, only 21% favor gay marraige and 75% oppose.

What this all means: the next generation is a generation whose majority is not a bunch of family values idiots.  In 50 years, when the family values idiots die out, say hello to gay marraige.

Have you ever heard the phrase "Ignorant youth"? The youth are always radical. They grow out of it though.

Exactly. The liberal counter-culture of the 60s and 70s became the biggest share of the Romney 2012 electorate.

Um, he's not been here to respond to that for something like eight years.

[King]

The poll I saw done by Washington Post and ABC shows that 41% of people believe that gay marraige should be legal, and 55% feelt hat it should not be legal.  But there is an encouraging sign in this poll.

This poll shows that 18-29 year olds favor gay marraige legalization, and 42% oppose.  But for those 65 and older, only 21% favor gay marraige and 75% oppose.

What this all means: the next generation is a generation whose majority is not a bunch of family values idiots.  In 50 years, when the family values idiots die out, say hello to gay marraige.

Have you ever heard the phrase "Ignorant youth"? The youth are always radical. They grow out of it though.

Exactly. The liberal counter-culture of the 60s and 70s became the biggest share of the Romney 2012 electorate.

Incorrect. 

The liberal counter-culture of the 1960s was a very loud minority made popular by its radical and newsworthy nature.  For every hippie dancing in the Bay Area, there was a kid in Mississippi protesting busing and school integration.  For every veteran who tossed his medals in protest, there's a Vietnam vet angry we didn't keep going until we won the war.  Oh, and then there's this:

Age 18-24 Exit Polls (became 18-29 in 1988)
1976: Ford 51%, Carter 49%
1980: Carter 45%, Reagan 44%, Anderson 11%
1984: Reagan 61%, Mondale 38%
1988: Bush 53%, Dukakis 47%

As you can see, only in 1980 did the Democrat do better with youth than with olds, and much of that was because 18-24 voted most for the John Anderson option, another Republican, instead of Reagan.

If you really want to see the trend, you'll see that the 1976 18-24 demo barely changed at all over the course of their lives:

1976: Ford +2 (18-24 group)
1980: Reagan +2 (24-29 group)
1984: Reagan +21 (30-39 group)
1988: Bush +8 (30-39 group)
1992: Clinton +2 (30-39 group)
1996: Clinton +7 (40-49 group)
2000: Bush +2 (40-49 group)
2004: Bush +7 (40-49 group)
2008: Obama +1 (50-64 group)
2012: Romney +2 (50-64 group)

As you can see, the youths of 1976 have been consistently 2 points more Republican than the population as a whole in every election except 1980, most of that caused by John Anderson, a Republican, receiving double digit support among this group.  Reagan likely would have won young people by 12 points in 1980 without that third party candidacy.   Jimmy Carter was elected by older Americans of the day not young ones.

The idea that people become conservative as they grow older is a huge myth.  Every conservative in Congress today was a conservative when they were in college, you can just ask them.

The olds of the past were the New Deal Democrats, the youths of the past distrusted government post-Watergate and Vietnam.  Today, the youth demand a better federal government.  The olds still distrust government.

[old timey villain]

The poll I saw done by Washington Post and ABC shows that 41% of people believe that gay marraige should be legal, and 55% feelt hat it should not be legal.  But there is an encouraging sign in this poll.

This poll shows that 18-29 year olds favor gay marraige legalization, and 42% oppose.  But for those 65 and older, only 21% favor gay marraige and 75% oppose.

What this all means: the next generation is a generation whose majority is not a bunch of family values idiots.  In 50 years, when the family values idiots die out, say hello to gay marraige.

Have you ever heard the phrase "Ignorant youth"? The youth are always radical. They grow out of it though.

Exactly. The liberal counter-culture of the 60s and 70s became the biggest share of the Romney 2012 electorate.

Incorrect. 

The liberal counter-culture of the 1960s was a very loud minority made popular by its radical and newsworthy nature.  For every hippie dancing in the Bay Area, there was a kid in Mississippi protesting busing and school integration.  For every veteran who tossed his medals in protest, there's a Vietnam vet angry we didn't keep going until we won the war. 

Here's a young Mitt Romney protesting Vietnam protestors

[Skill and Chance]

The poll I saw done by Washington Post and ABC shows that 41% of people believe that gay marraige should be legal, and 55% feelt hat it should not be legal.  But there is an encouraging sign in this poll.

This poll shows that 18-29 year olds favor gay marraige legalization, and 42% oppose.  But for those 65 and older, only 21% favor gay marraige and 75% oppose.

What this all means: the next generation is a generation whose majority is not a bunch of family values idiots.  In 50 years, when the family values idiots die out, say hello to gay marraige.

Have you ever heard the phrase "Ignorant youth"? The youth are always radical. They grow out of it though.

Exactly. The liberal counter-culture of the 60s and 70s became the biggest share of the Romney 2012 electorate.

Incorrect. 

The liberal counter-culture of the 1960s was a very loud minority made popular by its radical and newsworthy nature.  For every hippie dancing in the Bay Area, there was a kid in Mississippi protesting busing and school integration.  For every veteran who tossed his medals in protest, there's a Vietnam vet angry we didn't keep going until we won the war.  Oh, and then there's this:

Age 18-24 Exit Polls (became 18-29 in 1988)
1976: Ford 51%, Carter 49%
1980: Carter 45%, Reagan 44%, Anderson 11%
1984: Reagan 61%, Mondale 38%
1988: Bush 53%, Dukakis 47%

As you can see, only in 1980 did the Democrat do better with youth than with olds, and much of that was because 18-24 voted most for the John Anderson option, another Republican, instead of Reagan.

If you really want to see the trend, you'll see that the 1976 18-24 demo barely changed at all over the course of their lives:

1976: Ford +2 (18-24 group)
1980: Reagan +2 (24-29 group)
1984: Reagan +21 (30-39 group)
1988: Bush +8 (30-39 group)
1992: Clinton +2 (30-39 group)
1996: Clinton +7 (40-49 group)
2000: Bush +2 (40-49 group)
2004: Bush +7 (40-49 group)
2008: Obama +1 (50-64 group)
2012: Romney +2 (50-64 group)

As you can see, the youths of 1976 have been consistently 2 points more Republican than the population as a whole in every election except 1980, most of that caused by John Anderson, a Republican, receiving double digit support among this group.  Reagan likely would have won young people by 12 points in 1980 without that third party candidacy.   Jimmy Carter was elected by older Americans of the day not young ones.

The idea that people become conservative as they grow older is a huge myth.  Every conservative in Congress today was a conservative when they were in college, you can just ask them.

The olds of the past were the New Deal Democrats, the youths of the past distrusted government post-Watergate and Vietnam.  Today, the youth demand a better federal government.  The olds still distrust government.

What's curious is whatever is going on with 18-24 demographic in the past 3 elections:

2000: Tied
2004: Kerry+9
2008: Obama+34
2012: Obama+24

30-39 was Obama +13 in 2012, so the lean D characteristic of the Kerry cohort seems to hold. 

The major shift seems to be from 2000 to 2004 with the youth vote and it has been holding well left of center for a while.  But 18-24 and 25-29 were the same in 2012, so there was a snap back among 2008 first-time voters in addition to the very youngest cohort being slightly less liberal.

The 65+ demographic was Gore +4 in 2000, which probably marks the last gasp of the New Deal coalition...

[© tweed]

fun fact: I didn't know how to spell 'marriage' until 2005-2006.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Go Big, Mr. Obama
by Thomas Friedman

An interesting thought occurred to me today—what if grassroots activists sat down with ordinary people like you and me and ironed out some real solutions to our same-sex marriage crisis?

With the election season over, maybe you’ve forgotten about same-sex marriage, but I certainly haven’t. It would be easy to forget that the problem even exists, when our headlines are constantly splashed with the violence in Guatemala, the authoritarian crackdown in Fiji and the still-unstable democratic transition in Tunisia. But the same-sex marriage problem is growing, and politicians are more divided than ever. Democrats seem to think that same-sex marriage can just be ignored. Republican politicians like Mitch McConnell, on the other hand, seem to think that unproductive rhetoric will substitute for a argument.

But the Republican party of Mitch McConnell is not the Republican party of Lincoln. Lincoln wouldn’t refuse to budge, he'd reach across the aisle because he'd understand that the fate of the country, and his own political career, depended on a lasting solution to the problem of same-sex marriage.

It's good to see the talks between the president and congress getting off to a solid start, but we know there will be plenty of partisan fireworks before any deal is cut. If I had fifteen minutes to pitch my idea to politicians, I'd tell them two things about same-sex marriage. First, there's no way around the issue unless we're prepared to spend more: and not just spend more, but spend smarter by investing in the kind of national infrastructure that makes countries succeed. That's going to require some tax increases as well, but as they say, "them's the breaks."

Second, I'd tell them to look at China, which all but solved its same-sex marriage crisis over the past decade. When I visited China in 2000, Bartho, the cabbie who drove me from the airport, couldn't stop telling me about how he had to take a second job because of the high cost of same-sex marriage. I caught up with Bartho in Shanghai last year. Thanks to China's reformed approach toward same-sex marriage, Bartho has enough money in his pocket to finally be able to afford winter coats for his kids.

That's all it takes. Don't expect to see any solutions as long as politicians insist on playing a high-stakes game of blackjack with one another. America has to become a first world country again.

Thomas Friedman is weighing in on this? Goddamnit.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I absolutely adore that Thomas Friedman op-ed generator.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I absolutely adore that Thomas Friedman op-ed generator.

lol, got me.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

50 years was a pretty lengthy margin.

[MaxQue]

Can't blame him, in 2004, I would have forecasted 2030 or more.
Now, I think than the Supreme Court will force states to do it.

Not now, but before 2020.

[Beet]

Are we there yet?

[Consciously Unconscious]

The last 50 years have really flown by.

[Mehmentum]

Epic bump.

[ag]

Just over 11 years! That was really fast

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This gives me a lot of hope for people who say the Catholic Church still won't accept it in the next 50 years. I'm not saying it will take 11 for that too obviously, but hopefully pleasant surprises are around the corner

[ag]

This gives me a lot of hope for people who say the Catholic Church still won't accept it in the next 50 years. I'm not saying it will take 11 for that too obviously, but hopefully pleasant surprises are around the corner

Considering that Catholic Church has not, yet, accepted the divorce....

The difference, of course, is, that being a Catholic is a choice

[The Mikado]

Here's a fun thought: Brambila would probably last about two weeks on Atlas before getting banned today. 11 years ago, while outspoken, he was within (the right edge of) Atlas acceptable discourse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I have to say, it's amazing how quickly progress has occurred in America over a decade. Compare it to countries like Italy and Germany (or even France, where opposition to SSM is still perfectly mainstream). Kudos, America.

[Simfan34]

The dangers of comfortable complacency.

Instead of being an elderly curmudgeon by the time its time has come, one may instead be a young iconoclastic bigot who must self-censor to survive. Alas, the time has not aged Tweeds's claim- which sounded like it was made optimistically- all too well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The difference, of course, is, that being a Catholic is a choice

Certain people on Atlas would tell you otherwise.

[Cryptic]

The change from doom and gloom of 2004 to today is really amazing to think about. I remember back then I thought it'd be 2030 at the earliest. To have marriage equality after only eleven years from that prediction really gives one hope for humanity in general.

Here's a fun thought: Brambila would probably last about two weeks on Atlas before getting banned today. 11 years ago, while outspoken, he was within (the right edge of) Atlas acceptable discourse.

I don't think I've read anything by anyone on the current Atlas forum as cringe worthy as that guy's posts in this thread. UGH!

[H. Ross Peron]

Here's a fun thought: Brambila would probably last about two weeks on Atlas before getting banned today. 11 years ago, while outspoken, he was within (the right edge of) Atlas acceptable discourse.

His posts don't seem to dissimilar from say CountryClassSF.