bush's chosen successor?

[WalterMitty]

NOTE:  this post is *assuming* that bush wins reelection.  in other words, it's hypothetical.

who would bush want to follow him as president (since cheney is likely not to run).  i understand that bush will at least stay (publically) neutral through the primaries.  however, im sure he will privately favor one candidate.

i dont think jeb will run in 08.

i keep thinking tom ridge might be the guy bush would want to win.  any comments?

[minionofmidas]

I am Bush's chosen successor. For this reason, after he wins reelection, all presidential elections will be called off until the Nativity requirement has been scrapped by Constitutional Amendment and I've attained the age of 35.
You heard it here first.

[Friar]

Won't be Cheney.

Won't be Jeb for sure.

Bush might side with Bill Frist if he decides to run...

It is very hard to predict as it will also depend on Bush's hypothetical second term

[MODU]

You can scratch Jeb, Cheney, and Rudy off the list.  Jeb won't, Cheney wouldn't survive the primaries, and Rudy's past would be an easy target for the media.

[Light Touch]

I'm not sure Giuliani's past hurts him that bad.  Everyone knows already, so the damage is minimal.

I think they'll really try to push a "minority" into the slot -- either a woman, black, or latino.

[Dr. Cynic]

Bush likes Santorum.

[MODU]

Ugh . . . my message disappeared.  Let's try this again.

I think we could be going at this in the wrong way.  Who is to say that Bush will "choose" someone for 2008?  He might be inclined to let the primaries sort out the candidates, and then, after all is said and done, he will throw his support behind the remaining contender and campaign for him.

[© tweed]

Jeb Bush.

[??????????]

Arnold.

[MODU]

We'd have to change the Constitution first before Arnold can run.  He is popular enough to just might cause a movement to have the amendment passed, but it is unlikely.

However, I would love to see the "Demolition Man" prophesy come true (see the movie if you don't know what I am talking about).

[??????????]

We'd have to change the Constitution first before Arnold can run.  He is popular enough to just might cause a movement to have the amendment passed, but it is unlikely.

However, I would love to see the "Demolition Man" prophesy come true (see the movie if you don't know what I am talking about).

I know exactly what you are talking about. Some people believe it is a conspiracy.

[Inmate Trump]

I would say the primaries in '08 will look something like this:

1. Chuck Hagel
2. Rudy Giuliani -or- George Pataki (but not both)
3. Mitt Romney

[MODU]

Clay,

Here is some good reading for you then:

http://www.ny1.com/ny/TopStories/SubTopic/index.html?topicintid=1&subtopicintid=1&contentintid=42926

[raggage]

Bush likes Santorum.

Dear God!

[WalterMitty]

I would say the primaries in '08 will look something like this:

1. Chuck Hagel
2. Rudy Giuliani -or- George Pataki (but not both)
3. Mitt Romney

mitt romney...ack.

ill be glad when jane swift makes her comeback.

[zorkpolitics]

Perhpas a bit surprisingly, I think he'll end up supporting McCain (if McCain decides to run)

Bush values loyalty, if McCain continues to campaign vigourously for Bush, I would not be surprised if Bush ended up supporting McCain

[zachman]

McCain will be old and in poor health by 2008, I can't tell if he has the ambition in him again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm betting on Frist. McCain will not run again, he'll be too old and is in poor health, the GOP will never nominate someone who's pro-choice so both Guiliani and Pataki have 0 chance, Hagel would be done in just like Rove did in McCain, and the GOP will never nominate a Mormon.

[12th Doctor]

The more I look, the more I think that Pataki is Bush's first choice.  He is going before Bush in the convention.  That is, by far, the most coveted spot, and doesn't really go to the governor, just because he is there.  Miller's intro of Clinton in 1992 was the exception as far as I know.

(shrug) a lot can happen between now and 2008, though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pataki is pro-choice, no chance.

[12th Doctor]

Pataki is pro-choice, no chance.

So is Arnold and Giuliani and they have been elevated to hero status in the GOP.  Pataki could win the primaries, that is all he needs.  I might support him, depending on who is in.

[AuH2O]

McCain has a lot of questions, his age is definitely a problem. I supported him in 2000 and would consider it in '08.

Frist's Presidential hopes died the day he became Majority Leader. It's that simple. The GOP high command decided he lacked the charisma to make a formidable candidate.

Pataki has zero chance. Guiliani has a chance if things do not look good and he reassures the base ("clarifies" his views on gun control, moderates himself on abortion, etc.). A Hillary candidacy from the Dems helps Guiliani.

Owens was being groomed, but screwed it up. No big loss.

Romney is a factor. I think the higher-ups like him, he does well in Massachussetts without being particularly liberal, and so on. Right now, he might be the establishment guy. Ehrlich could attract some attention if he wins reelection to his Governorship.

Whoever the establishment picks has a huge, huge edge. If there is a pick like Guiliani or Romney, the VP pick will be important for the base. Santorum is probably too controversial, but George Allen has played the party system nicely (NRSC chair, etc.) and has experience as a Governor. If he runs, I would support him. He could be a factor on his own if the superstars don't join in (McCain, Guiliani).

My guess right now?

Romney/Allen

[Keystone Phil]

2008 primaries - Frist vs. Owens. Santorum probably won't run (I hope I'm wrong but I don't see him running in '08).

Might run: George Allen -  would be a good candidate and I'd have no problem supporting him. McCain - a big maybe.

Hagel - hinted at running a couple weeks ago. His chances aren't very good and I think he'll see that and reconsider a run.

Pataki - the biggest maybe of them all. If he runs for re-election in 2006, he'll probably lose to Eliot Spitzer which will end his political career. If he retires, then a run in '08 is more likely.

Not running: Rudy. Everyone loves to talk about Rudy 2008 but it won't happen. He'll probably challenge Hillary in 2006 for her Senate seat. That or a run for Governor. President is out of the question (in '08).

So as of right now, I see Bush supporting Frist for President. And unless Santorum runs, I'll be supporting Senator Frist too

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pataki is pro-choice, no chance.

So is Arnold and Giuliani and they have been elevated to hero status in the GOP.  Pataki could win the primaries, that is all he needs.  I might support him, depending on who is in.

hero status in either party doesn't mean you could win the nomination. Where could he do well? Most Iowa Republicans are religious right, he might do OK in NH but he would get killed down south. The GOP will never nominate someone who's pro-choice, I am sure of that beyond all doubt. Imagine the fits from Falwell and Robertson.

I am equally confidentent that the Democrats will never nominate someone who's pro-life.

[Inmate Trump]

Pataki is pro-choice, no chance.

Don't think that just because a candidate is pro-choice doesn't mean he/she can't establish themselves in the Republican Party and win elections nationally.  It can happen.  I myself am pro-life, but I realize that, to keep winning elections, the party is going to *have* to move slightly further to the left.  Sure, the rebel flag waving morons in the deep south won't change with their party and vote for a liberal candidate like Rudy, but I'm pretty confident the majority would.