OH: Public Policy Polling: Obama with a huge lead over McCain

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Ohio President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-06-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

*Note: This says it was taken May 17-18, but I think that was a type-o, I am emailing them asking if it was.

*Edit* They just e-mailed me back saying it was a type-o and they did it June 14-15. I added the right date.

[Franzl]

Praise Jesus!

[exopolitician]

Alot of undecideds....but holy hell.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I think this is about right, SUSA last poll in OH, had him up by 9% so he just moved up 2%. Also I do believe that most of the undecideds will go to McCain, but Obama is at 50% so it doesn't matter if he get all the undecidees he won't win, according to this poll.

[kevinatcausa]

The party IDs in the poll are 55% Democrat, 30% Republican, 15% Independent, while in 2004 they were 35% Democrat, 40% Republican, 25% Independent. 

I know there was some party switching in the past 4 years, but that seems a bit excessive. 

[Verily]

PPP are a Democratic pollster. Useful for the primaries, dubious for the GE. Not that they aren't right, but take it with multiple grains of salt.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The party IDs in the poll are 55% Democrat, 30% Republican, 15% Independent, while in 2004 they were 35% Democrat, 40% Republican, 25% Independent. 

I know there was some party switching in the past 4 years, but that seems a bit excessive. 

See the thing is that is how the people answered. They polled 773 random people in OH and that was one of the question they asked and that is how they answered. We don't know if they are really Democrats or just saying that is the party the feel they are closer to .

[Josh/Devilman88]

PPP are a Democratic pollster. Useful for the primaries, dubious for the GE. Not that they aren't right, but take it with multiple grains of salt.

They have polled NC very well in the GE.

[CARLHAYDEN]

New Poll: Ohio President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-06-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

*Note: This says it was taken May 17-18, but I think that was a type-o, I am emailing them asking if it was.

*Edit* They just e-mailed me back saying it was a type-o and they did it June 14-15. I added the right date.

First, this is not a very accurate polling firm.

Second, I do believe Obama will carry Ohio in November.

Third, expect the Margin of Victory there to be on the order of five per cent.

[TheresNoMoney]

The internals of this poll are pretty messed up. Obama only leads by 1% among 18-29 year olds but leads by double digits in the next age bracket? Makes no sense.  Obama only gets 75% of blacks? And they definitely oversampled Democrats.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well McCain is screwed if 55% of Ohioans are Democrats. Joke poll. Thanks PPP!

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well McCain is screwed if 55% of Ohioans are Democrats. Joke poll. Thanks PPP!

Duke you say all the poll that show Obama ahead like this in the "swing state" are jokes.

[Tender Branson]

Today's OH and MN polls seem to be a bit off. Party composition looks freaky, Obama winning Whites, but only getting 70% of African-Americans, no difference between men and women and Obama tied with McCain among young voters.

In MN, McCain is suddenly winning Independents by double-digits, 2 weeks ago Obama led by double-digits among them ... Something is very wrong here.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Its the summer time, polls will be kinda off.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well McCain is screwed if 55% of Ohioans are Democrats. Joke poll. Thanks PPP!

Duke you say all the poll that show Obama ahead like this in the "swing state" are jokes.

Where? This is a joke poll if 55% of the voters are Dems. I dont care what the margin is. If the registration is 55/30/15, then Ohio is solid Democrat.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well McCain is screwed if 55% of Ohioans are Democrats. Joke poll. Thanks PPP!

Duke you say all the poll that show Obama ahead like this in the "swing state" are jokes.

Where? This is a joke poll if 55% of the voters are Dems. I dont care what the margin is. If the registration is 55/30/15, then Ohio is solid Democrat.

In 2006 the exit polling showed Ohio close to that. The fact is, in today's time not to many people like to be called Republicans. I don't know the number according to Ohio's Board of Elections, but I bet it is something similar to that.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

LOL

Josh buddy, in 2006 it was 40% Dem/37% GOP/23% independent. Hardly close to this poll.

[Josh/Devilman88]

LOL

Josh buddy, in 2006 it was 40% Dem/37% GOP/23% independent. Hardly close to this poll.

Ok, now add on the national shift of toward the Democratic Party, which is close to 10%.

Also I do people alot of the bump is dude to Republcains not liking how the Republican party is being run, and the Indys switching to Democrats.

[Tender Branson]

LOL

Josh buddy, in 2006 it was 40% Dem/37% GOP/23% independent. Hardly close to this poll.

Ok, now add on the national shift of toward the Democratic Party, which is close to 10%.

Also I do people alot of the bump is dude to Republcains not liking how the Republican party is being run, and the Indys switching to Democrats.

Just did the math:

If we adjust the PPP numbers to 2006 composition (40D, 37R, 23I), McCain beats Obama 45-43.

If we add a point in increased turnout to the Democrats (41D, 36R, 23I) because DEM Party ID increased in the last 2 years according to Rasmussen, Obama and McCain are tied at 44%.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Excuse me? A 10% shift nationally to the Democrats? What proof do you have of this? I know their registration has been increasing due to the primaries, but that figure is a joke. If registration is that lopsided in Ohio, its not a swing state. I want to see proof that its swung that wildly. Otherwise, its just wishful thinking on your part. 2006 was a terrible years for the GOP. Its not going to be that bad in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Excuse me? A 10% shift nationally to the Democrats? What proof do you have of this? I know their registration has been increasing due to the primaries, but that figure is a joke. If registration is that lopsided in Ohio, its not a swing state. I want to see proof that its swung that wildly. Otherwise, its just wishful thinking on your part. 2006 was a terrible years for the GOP. Its not going to be that bad in 2008.

He`s not really wrong. Between 2004 and 2006 there was a 8% shift to the Democrats in turnout. Democrats went from 35% to 40%, Republicans slid from 40% to 37%. It´s not out of question that Democrats will make up 40-42% in November, and Republicans 35-37%. That would be a 10% swing. The fact that OH is a toss-up right now is the fact that Obama is still getting 10% less Democrats than McCain is getting Republicans. If Democratic Party cohesion matches Strickland/Brown by November as well as Obama winning Independents by a similar margin than the 2 Democrats in 2006, McCain will get trashed. But probably that is not the case.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Obama isn't going to win only 73% of the Democratic vote in Ohio.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Slight Barr.

[Brittain33]

Obama only gets 75% of blacks? And they definitely oversampled Democrats.

It's very common for African-American samples in polls to show very high undecideds and an unrealistically high percentage voting Republican.

[The Mikado]

New Poll: Ohio President by Public Policy Polling on 2008-06-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 39%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

*Note: This says it was taken May 17-18, but I think that was a type-o, I am emailing them asking if it was.

*Edit* They just e-mailed me back saying it was a type-o and they did it June 14-15. I added the right date.

First, this is not a very accurate polling firm.

Second, I do believe Obama will carry Ohio in November.

Third, expect the Margin of Victory there to be on the order of five per cent.

If Obama does win Ohio by five percent, McCain doesn't have a chance.

I'm thinking it will be less than three points either way.

And I don't believe this poll, much as I want to.