Rank the states by highest margin for mccain to highest margin for obama

[elcorazon]

1. utah
2. idaho
3. wyoming
4. oklahoma
5. sdakota
6. nebraska
7. alabama
8. ndakota
9. kansas
10. kentucky
11. mississippi
12. texas
13. alaska
14. arizona
15. louisiana
16. tennessee
17. wvirginia
18. indiana
19. arkansas
20. georgia
21. scarolina
22. montana
23. ncarolina
24. florida
25. missouri
26. nevada
27. virginia
28. colorado
29. nmexico
30. nhampshire
31. ohio
32. michigan
33. pennsylvania
34. wisconsin
35. iowa
36. njersey
37. delaware
38. minnesota
39. california
40. connecticut
41. maine
42. oregon
43. washington
44. maryland
45. nyork
46. hawaii
47. rhode island
48. massachusetts
49. illinois
50. vermont
51. dc

post yours

[Aizen]

no

 too much effort with no incentive

[MODU]

no

 too much effort with no incentive

^^^^

My brain hurts just thinking about it.

[elcorazon]

no

 too much effort with no incentive

^^^^

My brain hurts just thinking about it.

man, some people put in a LOT more effort than that.  I find it interesting in terms of helping to identify key states.  My ranking puts Ohio as the one to put either candidate over the top.  Obama's next 4 tightest needed states would be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa.  McCain's are NH, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, followed by Nevada and Missouri.

Just in looking at it that way, there are more states McCain has to protect, but Obama's are worth more electoral votes.  And McCain could lose a couple small ones (NH, NM, NV) as long as he takes the rest and takes Ohio.  Obama has no room for error.

plus if you're lazy, all you have to do is copy my list then move states around so it fits your opinion.

[MODU]

hahaha . . . I think the maps would be easier.    Still, I have no way to guage how well they'd do, especially since we're so early in the process.  Maybe after the conventions I'll have a better idea of how the candidates will do in different states.

[elcorazon]

hahaha . . . I think the maps would be easier.    Still, I have no way to guage how well they'd do, especially since we're so early in the process.  Maybe after the conventions I'll have a better idea of how the candidates will do in different states.

obviously at this point it's just a guess.  But it's what we tend to do around here all the time, no?

tough call was which would be stronger mccain, idaho or wyoming?  also tough was where to put Alaska, Montana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arizona, Hawaii, Tennessee, Louisiana, Georgia. 

I guess if it's a pain then leave it to the many folks around here who like doing this crap.

[MODU]

Oh, don't worry, I'm sure there will be people who will step up to the challenge, especially college kids on summer break. 

[elcorazon]

Oh, don't worry, I'm sure there will be people who will step up to the challenge, especially college kids on summer break. 

turns out there's not much interest in this idea... maybe after we have veeps chosen, this concept will take off.

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, don't worry, I'm sure there will be people who will step up to the challenge, especially college kids on summer break. 

turns out there's not much interest in this idea... maybe after we have veeps chosen, this concept will take off.

Try asking people to just rank 10-15 swing states.  You'd have a lot more takers.  There's not much fun in ranking, say, HI vs. NY.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Oh, don't worry, I'm sure there will be people who will step up to the challenge, especially college kids on summer break. 

turns out there's not much interest in this idea... maybe after we have veeps chosen, this concept will take off.

Try asking people to just rank 10-15 swing states.  You'd have a lot more takers.  There's not much fun in ranking, say, HI vs. NY.

How about this: here are the 20 most competitve states because I'll admit I have no idea on things like Idaho vs Wyoming or Hawaii vs Vermont

M c C A I N

West Virginia
Indiana
Alaska
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Missouri
Ohio
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Maine
Oregon
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
New Jersey

O B A M A

[Mr. Morden]

How about this: here are the 20 most competitve states because I'll admit I have no idea on things like Idaho vs Wyoming or Hawaii vs Vermont

M c C A I N

West Virginia
Indiana
Alaska
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Missouri
Ohio
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Maine
Oregon
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
New Jersey

O B A M A

What about Nevada?

[Bluegrass Cruiser 420]

Oh for Christ sakes!  What  a useless thread.  I'm sure if it is that important to you I'm sure CNN or Fox News will do it on their websites as gets closer to the election and you can reply there.

[elcorazon]

Oh for Christ sakes!  What  a useless thread.  I'm sure if it is that important to you I'm sure CNN or Fox News will do it on their websites as gets closer to the election and you can reply there.

I'm not sure why this thread is useless.  Of all the crap in this forum, this seems pretty interesting.  A bunch of folks looking at stats a lot and dealing with electoral college might actually be interested in the relative strength of the candidates in the 50 states.

Sure, not everyone will want to participate, but I'm not sure I get why there's some sort of backlash against it.

whatever.

[Stranger in a strange land]

How about this: here are the 20 most competitve states because I'll admit I have no idea on things like Idaho vs Wyoming or Hawaii vs Vermont

M c C A I N

West Virginia
Indiana
Alaska
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Missouri
Ohio
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Maine
Oregon
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Washington
New Jersey

O B A M A

What about Nevada?

d'oh I knew I'd forget one! Stick it between Ohio and Michigan.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Eliminated no brainers:

West Virginia
Montana
Florida
Alaska
North Carolina
Missouri

-- COULD GO EITHER WAY --

Virginia
Nevada
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Iowa
Wisconsin
New Jersey

-------------------------

Delaware
Minnesota
Connecticut
Oregon
Maine
Washington

[Josh/Devilman88]

Eliminated no brainers: Not in order

West Virginia
Montana
Delaware
Minnesota
Connecticut
Oregon
Maine
Washington
New Jersey


-- COULD GO EITHER WAY --

Alaska
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Virginia
Nevada
New Hampshire
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Iowa

[Klippa]

Utah   –40%
Oklahoma   –32%
Wyoming   –32%
Nebraska   –31%
Idaho   –30%
Alabama   –28%
Alaska   –24%
Kansas   –22%
Kentucky   –21%
Texas   –20%
Mississippi   –19%
North Carolina   –18%
Indiana   –17%
Georgia   –16%
West Virginia   –16%
North Dakota   –15%
Tennessee   –14%
South Carolina   –13%
South Dakota   –12%
Montana   –10%
Louisiana   –10%
Missouri   –9%
Arizona   –9%
Virginia   –4%
Ohio   –3%
Florida   –1%
Iowa   –0%
Colorado   0%
Minnesota   0%
New Hampshire   1%
Arkansas   1%
Wisconsin   1%
New Mexico   3%
Pennsylvania   3%
Nevada   3%
Maine   4%
New Jersey   4%
Washington   5%
Maryland   7%
Delaware   8%
Michigan   8%
Oregon   13%
Illinois   15%
New York   16%
California   16%
Connecticut   21%
Vermont   23%
Massachusetts   29%
Rhode Island   33%
Hawaii   35%
District of Columbia   90%

The percentage following each is the deviation I expect from the national margin. So at 50:50 split nationally Obama will have taken NV, NM, AR and CO. (I know: he'll take CO before he takes NV and he'll take IA before he takes AR. The numbers are based on observing trends in these margins in past elections. AR oscillates left and right of the national margin. It looks due for a swing to the Dems.) If the national figure is 54% to Obama, which seems reasonable (and not as large as either of Bill Clinton's), then he takes IA, FL, OH and VA too.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Utah   –40%
Oklahoma   –32%
Wyoming   –32%
Nebraska   –31%
Idaho   –30%
Alabama   –28%
Alaska   –24%
Kansas   –22%
Kentucky   –21%
Texas   –20%
Mississippi   –19%
North Carolina   –18%
Indiana   –17%
Georgia   –16%
West Virginia   –16%
North Dakota   –15%
Tennessee   –14%
South Carolina   –13%
South Dakota   –12%
Montana   –10%
Louisiana   –10%
Missouri   –9%
Arizona   –9%
Virginia   –4%
Ohio   –3%
Florida   –1%
Iowa   –0%
Colorado   0%
Minnesota   0%
New Hampshire   1%
Arkansas   1%
Wisconsin   1%
New Mexico   3%
Pennsylvania   3%
Nevada   3%
Maine   4%
New Jersey   4%
Washington   5%
Maryland   7%
Delaware   8%
Michigan   8%
Oregon   13%
Illinois   15%
New York   16%
California   16%
Connecticut   21%
Vermont   23%
Massachusetts   29%
Rhode Island   33%
Hawaii   35%
District of Columbia   90%

The percentage following each is the deviation I expect from the national margin. So at 50:50 split nationally Obama will have taken NV, NM, AR and CO. (I know: he'll take CO before he takes NV and he'll take IA before he takes AR. The numbers are based on observing trends in these margins in past elections. AR oscillates left and right of the national margin. It looks due for a swing to the Dems.) If the national figure is 54% to Obama, which seems reasonable (and not as large as either of Bill Clinton's), then he takes IA, FL, OH and VA too.

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

[elcorazon]

and don't forget that when Arkansas was voting more for the Dems, Clinton was a candidate.  I know it was still fairly close in 2000, but I think it's trending away from Dems, rather than swinging.  It may swing dem, but unlikely to do so more than Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and others. 

Good to see someone make the effort to do the task though.

[DownWithTheLeft]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

[DownWithTheLeft]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

Like that HUGE almost .5% swing in 2004

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

Like that HUGE almost .5% swing in 2004

Compare that to the +2% national swing toward the Republican, yes it was a big swing. That means it trended toward the Democratic Party by over 3%, IIRC.

[DownWithTheLeft]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

Like that HUGE almost .5% swing in 2004

Compare that to the +2% national swing toward the Republican, yes it was a big swing. That means it trended toward the Democratic Party by over 3%, IIRC.

2%+.5%=2.5%, WOW you might be Dem by the next Civil War

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

Like that HUGE almost .5% swing in 2004

Compare that to the +2% national swing toward the Republican, yes it was a big swing. That means it trended toward the Democratic Party by over 3%, IIRC.

2%+.5%=2.5%, WOW you might be Dem by the next Civil War

Hmm no, NC trended 3.37% in 2004. NC should have voted for bush 59% if it followed the national trend or around 3% toward the Republicans. So it really moved 6% toward the left. So I guess NC will be around 6% more Democratic then in 2004.. making it a 50-49 election in Nov for NC.