Large State Trends

[Erc]

As a lot of people have discussed (both in jest and in earnest) the possibility of large trends in individual states this year, I figure it would be a good idea to enumerate some of the "large" trends from recent elections (essentially, I'm going down the list in order long enough to get the two largest trends to each party).

I'm not an expert on individual state politics, so I'm going to leave my own comments to a minimum.  Everyone is encouraged to comment themselves, however...that's really the point of this thread.

2004: 1.5% National Swing to REP
Average Trend: 2.4%

Vermont: 6.4% trend to DEM (Nader)
Alaska: 6.2% trend to DEM (Nader)
Montana: 4.7% trend to DEM (Nader)
Hawai'i: 3.9% trend to REP (incumbent bias)
Alabama: 3.8% trend to REP

2000: 4.5% National Swing to REP
Average Trend: 3.5%

Wyoming: 9.0% trend to REP (Perot??)
Arkansas: 7.7% trend to REP (Clinton's home state)
Montana: 7.5% trend to REP (Nader & Perot?)
West Virginia: 7.1% trend to REP
North Dakota 6.3% trend to REP (Perot??)
Louisiana 6.0% trend to REP
Idaho 5.6% trend to REP (Perot??)
Maine 5.4% trend to REP (Gun Control?)
Utah 5.2% trend to REP (Perot, Nader?)
South Dakota 5.2% trend to REP (Perot???)
D.C. 4.8% trend to DEM (DC does not swing with the country)
Maryland 4.3% trend to DEM

1996: 1.3% National Swing to DEM
Average Trend: 3.2%

Kansas: 7.8% trend to REP (Dole's home state)
New Jersey 7.3% trend to REP DEM
Hawai'i: 6.3% trend to DEM (incumbency bias)
Rhode Island: 5.9% trend to DEM
Maine: 5.3% trend to DEM
Massachusetts: 5.3% trend to DEM
New York: 5.3% trend to DEM
Wyoming: 5.0% trend to REP (Perot?)

Note the behavior in the Northeast...New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, and (not on this list) Connecticut all with large trends.
 
1992: 7.4% National Swing to DEM
Average Trend: 3.8%

Arkansas: 9.8% trend to DEM (Clinton's home state)
Iowa: 8.8% trend to REP (Farm Crisis)
North Dakota: 8.6% trend to REP
Nebraska: 8.1% trend to REP
New Hampshire: 6.7% trend to DEM

1988: 5.3% National Swing to DEM
Average Trend: 3.1%

DC: 6.2% trend to REP (DC does not swing with the country)
Oklahoma: 5.4% trend to DEM
Tennessee: 5.3% trend to REP (why Reagan did so poorly here is still a mystery to me)
Georgia: 5.3% trend to REP
Hawai'i: 5.2% trend to DEM (incumbency bias?)


And I'm not touching any election trend involving Carter.

[Erc]

Hm, why did the NE seem to swing heavily for Clinton in 1996?  I would think Bush would do better there than Dole.

That would result in a Democratic swing in 1996. Also, northeasterners were put off by southern Republicans elected in 1994.

I meant swing for Dole, I was surprised at why he did so well in NJ

Sorry, the color was right but the text was wrong.  NJ did swing heavily to Clinton in 1996.  (Dole lost the state by 18 points, whereas Bush lost the state by 2).