Kevinstat
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,823
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« on: July 06, 2008, 02:46:42 PM » |
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Nader got 5.7% in Maine in 2000, so I think Maine's Republican trend from 1996-2000 can be explained somewhat by his candidacy. Gun control didn't help Gore here either, but it probably hurt him overall (although not in some areas I know), so that might help explain the swing to Bush up to the national swing, but not the additional swing that was the trend. Also, how are you calculating your swing and trend data? It doesn't seem to jive with the site's figures, and I tried dividing those by 2 (if you think 100% Bush 2000 to 100% Kerry 2004 would be a 100% rather than a 200% swing to Kerry) and that didn't work either. Perhaps you're using the percentage of the two-party vote, perhaps with the division by 2 also. I don't know, but I do know your national swing and state trend data don't match Dave's.
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