Bizarre Dutch Poll
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Author Topic: Bizarre Dutch Poll  (Read 2732 times)
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Hashemite
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« on: June 19, 2008, 06:08:59 AM »

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/30985/dutch_christian_democrats_get_stronger

CDA 35
ToN 21
PvdA 16
SP 15
VVD 15
D66 14
PvdV 11
GL 11
CU 7
PvdD 2
SGP 2

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Bono
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2008, 06:44:03 AM »

Become stronger? They have 41 seats now...
Also, what the hell is ToN?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2008, 06:51:49 AM »

Become stronger? They have 41 seats now...
Compared to may polls.
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Whatever it is, it was polling even stronger in may.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2008, 07:01:38 AM »

I think it's the latest nationalist party
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2008, 07:07:20 AM »

I think it's the latest nationalist party

Yes. "Proud of the Netherlands". Probably another one-election thingee.
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2008, 07:36:53 AM »

That's Rita Verdonks crowd.

It's another nationalist/anti-immigration vehicle, but this time it's leader is a bit of an authoritarian. Likes the state, the surveillance society and all that. Wants to send gay Iranians back to Iran because 'only acts are punishable by death.' Very steely; makes Geert Wilders look like a pussycat etc.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2008, 09:36:06 AM »

Nice to see D66 doing so well again. Verdonk is a passing phase; her party has already peaked in the polls and won't do better than fourth.
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Colin
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2008, 11:50:46 AM »

What a weird poll. 32% combined for ex-VVD far-righties. If these were election results that would be the second highest result ever, after the 1994 elections. I expect them to do better in the next election but that's mostly due to the collapse of the VVD that's currently occuring than anything else.

I agree that Verdonk isn't going to get 21% however I do think that her and Wilders are going to be tied at around 10% giving the combined anti-immigration right around 20% or so in the new Tweede Kamer.
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freek
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« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2008, 01:18:17 PM »

Some other polls, from http://www.politiekebarometer.nl/

(22 Nov 2006 are the most recent elections for the Tweede Kamer).

Code:
22 Nov 2006 19 Jun 2008 3 Jul 2008

CDA     26,5 41 20,1 31 23,3 36
PvdA 21,2 33 14,8 23 15,4 24
SP 16,6 25 13,3 20 12,2 19
VVD 14,7 22 10,5 16 10,8 16
PVV/Wilders 5,9 9 7,0 10 7,3 11
GroenLinks 4,6 7 5,7 8 5,5 8
ChristenUnie 4,0 6 5,1 8 5,4 8
D66 2,0 3 6,5 10 5,8 9
SGP 1,6 2 1,9 2 1,9 2
PvdD 1,8 2 1,8 2 1,9 2
Verdonk 0,0 0 12,9 20 10,1 15
Other Parties 1,2 0 0,4 0 0,4 0



Rita Verdonk's Trots op Nederland (ToN) managed to lose 5 seats in 2 weeks in the polls because of some financial conflict with her former advisor, in a way reminiscent of the good old LPF (Fortuyn List).

Or, in a parody on ToN's party poster, which portrays Verdonk as a captain on a ship:


a cartoonist came up with:
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2008, 03:32:51 PM »

Ah, OK, so she seems to be collapsing now.
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freek
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2008, 02:57:57 AM »


For the moment, yes. But the next Dutch elections are scheduled for May 2011, so there is quite some time left for Verdonk to really build up her party.
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2008, 03:03:13 PM »


New stuff: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31483/dutch_christian_democrats_in_upward_trend
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Colin
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2008, 08:53:35 PM »


Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.
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War on Want
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2008, 09:24:34 PM »


Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.
Yep pretty interesting. I hope Labour and the Socialists can make some sort of coaltion.
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Colin
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2008, 11:25:37 PM »


Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.
Yep pretty interesting. I hope Labour and the Socialists can make some sort of coaltion.

They're pulling in as many votes combined as the CDA, roughly.

Combined Left (PvdA, SP, GL): 45
Combined Left + D66: 59
Combined Right (CDA, VVD): 49
Combined Right + CU: 55
Combined Right + D66: 63
Crazy Ex-VVD Members: 32

If Balkenende can reform the Balkenende I cabinet (CDA, VVD, D66), he would have a solid majority. CDA and VVD, right now, might barely have a majority. The CDA and VVD could align themselves with one of the ex-VVD anti-immigration parties, more likely Wilder's PvdV, but I can't really see that happening. I really don't know enough about either SP's relation with the PvdA or D66's relationship with the left to tell if a coalition of the left might work. With Labour falling to fourth I doubt the grand coalition will stay in place.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #15 on: August 15, 2008, 12:15:38 AM »


Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.
Yep pretty interesting. I hope Labour and the Socialists can make some sort of coaltion.

They're pulling in as many votes combined as the CDA, roughly.

Combined Left (PvdA, SP, GL): 45
Combined Left + D66: 59
Combined Right (CDA, VVD): 49
Combined Right + CU: 55
Combined Right + D66: 63
Crazy Ex-VVD Members: 32

If Balkenende can reform the Balkenende I cabinet (CDA, VVD, D66), he would have a solid majority. CDA and VVD, right now, might barely have a majority. The CDA and VVD could align themselves with one of the ex-VVD anti-immigration parties, more likely Wilder's PvdV, but I can't really see that happening. I really don't know enough about either SP's relation with the PvdA or D66's relationship with the left to tell if a coalition of the left might work. With Labour falling to fourth I doubt the grand coalition will stay in place.

It is worth noting that the Socialists are militantly anti-Immigrant, and strongly anti-Muslim, or at least strongly secular. The big dividing issue recently has been the efforts of the VVD Justice Minister to strengthen blasphemy laws, most prominently by prosecuting a journalist who created derogatory cartoons about Islam. The Socialists, Wilders, and TON have been cooperating in Parliament against the government on this issue, and given the success of a red-yellow coalition in the 1990s, we may well see a left-right alliance that bypasses the CDA, especially because the CDA has pissed off just about everyone lately. The only reason they are still there is because Labour is scared to bring down the government when they are polling so badly, which is allowing them to be raped by the CDA, which in turn drives down their poll ratings.

New elections though will remove this impediment. There will have to be serious changes within the CDA before anyone is willing to talk with them after the next elections.
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Verily
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« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2008, 12:28:08 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2008, 12:33:56 AM by Verily »


Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.
Yep pretty interesting. I hope Labour and the Socialists can make some sort of coaltion.

They're pulling in as many votes combined as the CDA, roughly.

Combined Left (PvdA, SP, GL): 45
Combined Left + D66: 59
Combined Right (CDA, VVD): 49
Combined Right + CU: 55
Combined Right + D66: 63
Crazy Ex-VVD Members: 32

If Balkenende can reform the Balkenende I cabinet (CDA, VVD, D66), he would have a solid majority. CDA and VVD, right now, might barely have a majority. The CDA and VVD could align themselves with one of the ex-VVD anti-immigration parties, more likely Wilder's PvdV, but I can't really see that happening. I really don't know enough about either SP's relation with the PvdA or D66's relationship with the left to tell if a coalition of the left might work. With Labour falling to fourth I doubt the grand coalition will stay in place.

D66 has gone into coalition with Labour in the past, but I don't think they'd touch the Socialists, certainly not a Socialist-led coalition (which is what the Socialists as largest party would probably entail).

As dantheroman mentioned, the Socialists themselves have been pretty strongly nativist, which is part of why they're sucking up the Labour vote. That makes it extremely difficult to see a left-wing coalition forming even if SP-PvdA-GL-PvdD had a majority, with or without CU or D66. (CU is actually much more likely to work with the leftists than with the VVD, whom they despise.) Labour is very reluctant to cede more ground to the Socialists, and I don't think the SP and GroenLinks would get along well in coalition either.

Ultimately, I think D66 will try to stay aloof and not join any government. They've typically done well in elections when they're not in power, such as the current one, and then been hammered whenever they join the government. I think they'd rather force another grand coalition, or at least try to give everyone headaches. CU will flat-out refuse to work with the VVD or the crazy anti-immigration parties, which includes the Socialists. Ultimately, unless CDA-VVD gets a majority, we're probably looking at another very unstable Dutch government.
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« Reply #17 on: December 28, 2008, 05:11:08 PM »

Not as bizarre as before, but I found this thread and decided to bump it.

CDA 24.2% 37 seats
PvdA 23.2% 36
VVD 11% 17
SP 9.7% 15
D66 7.2% 11
PVV 6.6% 10
GroenLinks 6.1% 9
CU 4.3% 6
Verdonk 3.7% 5
SGP 1.9% 2
Animals 1.5% 2
Others 0.6
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big bad fab
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« Reply #18 on: December 28, 2008, 05:45:42 PM »

Even messier than in France...
Unfortunately, European elections aren't serious things in Europe and for European parties. What a pity.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #19 on: December 28, 2008, 06:57:26 PM »


No other place has a party like the PvdD Grin

Unfortunately, European elections aren't serious things in Europe and for European parties. What a pity.

Hear, hear.
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Verily
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« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2009, 06:15:31 PM »
« Edited: January 01, 2009, 06:25:04 PM by Verily »

Not as bizarre as before, but I found this thread and decided to bump it.

CDA 24.2% 37 seats
PvdA 23.2% 36
VVD 11% 17
SP 9.7% 15
D66 7.2% 11
PVV 6.6% 10
GroenLinks 6.1% 9
CU 4.3% 6
Verdonk 3.7% 5
SGP 1.9% 2
Animals 1.5% 2
Others 0.6


Nice. Major collapse for the various radical parties (since earlier polls), and Verdonk has crashed and burned.

Various groupings (150 seats, 76 for majority):

CDA: 37 (-4)
PvdA: 36 (+3)
Mainstream right (CDA+VVD): 54 (-9 on 2006)
Mainstream left (PvdA+GL+PvdD): 47 (+5)
Left and socialists (PvdA+SP+GL+PvdD): 62 (-5)
Right and D66 (CDA+VVD+D66): 65 (-1)
Left and D66 (PvdA+D66+GL+PvdD): 58 (+13)
Left and center (PvdA+D66+GL+CU+PvdD): 64 (+15)
Left, center and socialists (PvdA+SP+D66+GL+CU+PvdD): 79 (+5)
Right and center (CDA+VVD+D66+CU): 71 (-1)
Right and radical right (CDA+VVD+PVV+ToN): 69 (-8, plus ToN which is new)
Grand coalition (CDA+PvdA): 73 (-1)
Current coalition (CDA+PvdA+CU): 79 (-1)
Grand coalition with VVD (CDA+PvdA+VVD): 90 (-6)
Grand coalition with D66 (CDA+PvdA+D66): 84 (+7)
Grand coalition with GroenLinks (CDA+PvdA+GL): 82 (+1)

D66 and CU would probably object to being described as "centrists". I only described them as such as they are the only parties which could realistically participate in coalitions with either the left or the right. I also included a CDA-PvdA-GL coalition because that might happen if PvdA ends up the largest party and therefore gets to dictate terms to the CDA (who can't form a coalition on these numbers without the PvdA, although the PvdA could form the left-center-socialists coalition).
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freek
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« Reply #21 on: January 02, 2009, 12:36:33 PM »

Not as bizarre as before, but I found this thread and decided to bump it.

CDA 24.2% 37 seats
PvdA 23.2% 36
VVD 11% 17
SP 9.7% 15
D66 7.2% 11
PVV 6.6% 10
GroenLinks 6.1% 9
CU 4.3% 6
Verdonk 3.7% 5
SGP 1.9% 2
Animals 1.5% 2
Others 0.6


Some explanations for changes since last summer:

PvdA won back 10 seats in the polls. There is one reason for this: Party leader, deputy prime minister and Finance Minister Wouter Bos. He nationalised ABN AMRO Bank and Fortis Bank to save both banks from bankruptcy. The public, MPs and political journalists all three named him Politician of the Year.

Verdonk lost most of her seats in the polls, because of some incidents. Her spin doctor had to resign because he admitted that her political program consisted of air, and nothing more, and he was quite proud that despite her lack of ideas ToN had 15 seats in the polls. He told this in a lecture for Political Science students, one of the students taped the lecture and sent it to a web log.

Also, Verdonk was a lefty in her younger years, in the 1970s. However, according to her she was only active in feminist groups, and she lived in a squatted building. She had never a member of political groups, or even involved in politics in that era. In a television programme someone asked her if she had been a member of the Pacifist Socialist Party (PSP, merged into GroenLinks in 1990). Rita Verdonk denied this. They then showed to Verdonk her application form and membership card, and she had to admit that indeed she had been a member, but she had forgotten this. Grin
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