Bizarre Dutch Poll

[Colin]

What a weird poll. 32% combined for ex-VVD far-righties. If these were election results that would be the second highest result ever, after the 1994 elections. I expect them to do better in the next election but that's mostly due to the collapse of the VVD that's currently occuring than anything else.

I agree that Verdonk isn't going to get 21% however I do think that her and Wilders are going to be tied at around 10% giving the combined anti-immigration right around 20% or so in the new Tweede Kamer.

[Colin]

New stuff: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31483/dutch_christian_democrats_in_upward_trend

Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.

[Colin]

New stuff: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31483/dutch_christian_democrats_in_upward_trend

Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.

Yep pretty interesting. I hope Labour and the Socialists can make some sort of coaltion.

They're pulling in as many votes combined as the CDA, roughly.

Combined Left (PvdA, SP, GL): 45
Combined Left + D66: 59
Combined Right (CDA, VVD): 49
Combined Right + CU: 55
Combined Right + D66: 63
Crazy Ex-VVD Members: 32

If Balkenende can reform the Balkenende I cabinet (CDA, VVD, D66), he would have a solid majority. CDA and VVD, right now, might barely have a majority. The CDA and VVD could align themselves with one of the ex-VVD anti-immigration parties, more likely Wilder's PvdV, but I can't really see that happening. I really don't know enough about either SP's relation with the PvdA or D66's relationship with the left to tell if a coalition of the left might work. With Labour falling to fourth I doubt the grand coalition will stay in place.