Bizarre Dutch Poll

[Verily]

Nice to see D66 doing so well again. Verdonk is a passing phase; her party has already peaked in the polls and won't do better than fourth.

[Verily]

New stuff: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31483/dutch_christian_democrats_in_upward_trend

Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.

Yep pretty interesting. I hope Labour and the Socialists can make some sort of coaltion.

They're pulling in as many votes combined as the CDA, roughly.

Combined Left (PvdA, SP, GL): 45
Combined Left + D66: 59
Combined Right (CDA, VVD): 49
Combined Right + CU: 55
Combined Right + D66: 63
Crazy Ex-VVD Members: 32

If Balkenende can reform the Balkenende I cabinet (CDA, VVD, D66), he would have a solid majority. CDA and VVD, right now, might barely have a majority. The CDA and VVD could align themselves with one of the ex-VVD anti-immigration parties, more likely Wilder's PvdV, but I can't really see that happening. I really don't know enough about either SP's relation with the PvdA or D66's relationship with the left to tell if a coalition of the left might work. With Labour falling to fourth I doubt the grand coalition will stay in place.

D66 has gone into coalition with Labour in the past, but I don't think they'd touch the Socialists, certainly not a Socialist-led coalition (which is what the Socialists as largest party would probably entail).

As dantheroman mentioned, the Socialists themselves have been pretty strongly nativist, which is part of why they're sucking up the Labour vote. That makes it extremely difficult to see a left-wing coalition forming even if SP-PvdA-GL-PvdD had a majority, with or without CU or D66. (CU is actually much more likely to work with the leftists than with the VVD, whom they despise.) Labour is very reluctant to cede more ground to the Socialists, and I don't think the SP and GroenLinks would get along well in coalition either.

Ultimately, I think D66 will try to stay aloof and not join any government. They've typically done well in elections when they're not in power, such as the current one, and then been hammered whenever they join the government. I think they'd rather force another grand coalition, or at least try to give everyone headaches. CU will flat-out refuse to work with the VVD or the crazy anti-immigration parties, which includes the Socialists. Ultimately, unless CDA-VVD gets a majority, we're probably looking at another very unstable Dutch government.

[Verily]

Not as bizarre as before, but I found this thread and decided to bump it.

CDA 24.2% 37 seats
PvdA 23.2% 36
VVD 11% 17
SP 9.7% 15
D66 7.2% 11
PVV 6.6% 10
GroenLinks 6.1% 9
CU 4.3% 6
Verdonk 3.7% 5
SGP 1.9% 2
Animals 1.5% 2
Others 0.6

Nice. Major collapse for the various radical parties (since earlier polls), and Verdonk has crashed and burned.

Various groupings (150 seats, 76 for majority):

CDA: 37 (-4)
PvdA: 36 (+3)
Mainstream right (CDA+VVD): 54 (-9 on 2006)
Mainstream left (PvdA+GL+PvdD): 47 (+5)
Left and socialists (PvdA+SP+GL+PvdD): 62 (-5)
Right and D66 (CDA+VVD+D66): 65 (-1)
Left and D66 (PvdA+D66+GL+PvdD): 58 (+13)
Left and center (PvdA+D66+GL+CU+PvdD): 64 (+15)
Left, center and socialists (PvdA+SP+D66+GL+CU+PvdD): 79 (+5)
Right and center (CDA+VVD+D66+CU): 71 (-1)
Right and radical right (CDA+VVD+PVV+ToN): 69 (-8, plus ToN which is new)
Grand coalition (CDA+PvdA): 73 (-1)
Current coalition (CDA+PvdA+CU): 79 (-1)
Grand coalition with VVD (CDA+PvdA+VVD): 90 (-6)
Grand coalition with D66 (CDA+PvdA+D66): 84 (+7)
Grand coalition with GroenLinks (CDA+PvdA+GL): 82 (+1)

D66 and CU would probably object to being described as "centrists". I only described them as such as they are the only parties which could realistically participate in coalitions with either the left or the right. I also included a CDA-PvdA-GL coalition because that might happen if PvdA ends up the largest party and therefore gets to dictate terms to the CDA (who can't form a coalition on these numbers without the PvdA, although the PvdA could form the left-center-socialists coalition).