Well that's interesting. Rita in second place, the Socialists in third, Labour in fourth, D66 with 14%, this is as unstable as an eastern European country.
They're pulling in as many votes combined as the CDA, roughly.
Combined Left (PvdA, SP, GL): 45
Combined Left + D66: 59
Combined Right (CDA, VVD): 49
Combined Right + CU: 55
Combined Right + D66: 63
Crazy Ex-VVD Members: 32
If Balkenende can reform the Balkenende I cabinet (CDA, VVD, D66), he would have a solid majority. CDA and VVD, right now, might barely have a majority. The CDA and VVD could align themselves with one of the ex-VVD anti-immigration parties, more likely Wilder's PvdV, but I can't really see that happening. I really don't know enough about either SP's relation with the PvdA or D66's relationship with the left to tell if a coalition of the left might work. With Labour falling to fourth I doubt the grand coalition will stay in place.
It is worth noting that the Socialists are militantly anti-Immigrant, and strongly anti-Muslim, or at least strongly secular. The big dividing issue recently has been the efforts of the VVD Justice Minister to strengthen blasphemy laws, most prominently by prosecuting a journalist who created derogatory cartoons about Islam. The Socialists, Wilders, and TON have been cooperating in Parliament against the government on this issue, and given the success of a red-yellow coalition in the 1990s, we may well see a left-right alliance that bypasses the CDA, especially because the CDA has pissed off just about everyone lately. The only reason they are still there is because Labour is scared to bring down the government when they are polling so badly, which is allowing them to be raped by the CDA, which in turn drives down their poll ratings.
New elections though will remove this impediment. There will have to be serious changes within the CDA before anyone is willing to talk with them after the next elections.
