GA: Insider Advantage: McCain leads Georgia by 1%

[Franzl]

It's not this close.  IA has been way off this primary season, so I'm not so worried.

You need to realize there is a big difference between primary polling and general election polling.

Of course this poll is junk, but using their primary performance is not the way to show it.

[Ronnie]

It's not this close.  IA has been way off this primary season, so I'm not so worried.

You need to realize there is a big difference between primary polling and general election polling.

Of course this poll is junk, but using their primary performance is not the way to show it.

Yeah, but I'm just citing an example about how their history isn't so good.  I just can't believe at this point that Obama is practically tied with McCain.

[Verily]

It's not this close.  IA has been way off this primary season, so I'm not so worried.

You need to realize there is a big difference between primary polling and general election polling.

Of course this poll is junk, but using their primary performance is not the way to show it.

Yeah, but I'm just citing an example about how their history isn't so good.  I just can't believe at this point that Obama is practically tied with McCain.

Given that their main problem in the primaries was severely underestimating the black vote, you should hope that they aren't making the same mistake here.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Not very surprising...in fact, I'm surprised Georgia isn't a solid Dem state.  I've been here in the Atlanta area for the past week on a business trip--first time ever in GA--and I've come to the following conclusion:   there are no white people in Georgia.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No way is McCain's lead only 1%. 

But.... with the growing metro area, northern transplants, and increased African American turnout.... McCain will win, but it's not going to be the shellacking that Kerry received.   

Whatever, random prediction...

McCain 54%
Obama 45%

[HardRCafé]

Not very surprising...in fact, I'm surprised Georgia isn't a solid Dem state.  I've been here in the Atlanta area for the past week on a business trip--first time ever in GA--and I've come to the following conclusion:   there are no white people in Georgia.

Atlanta is the opposite of the rest of Georgia.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Never never never never never never trust a poll that lists Barr as a legitimate choice never never never.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Never never never never never never trust a poll that lists Barr as a legitimate choice never never never.

Why? Barr will be on the ballot.

[Lunar]

Never never never never never never trust a poll that lists Barr as a legitimate choice never never never.

To be fair, Georgia is probably going to be one of Barr's best states and have some of the highest name recognition with the candidate, I mean he was a congressman there for some time not too long ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never never never never never never trust a poll that lists Barr as a legitimate choice never never never.

To be fair, Georgia is probably going to be one of Barr's best states and have some of the highest name recognition with the candidate, I mean he was a congressman there for some time not too long ago.

If his electoral record in that district is anything to go by, then he was never a popular congresscritter.

[HardRCafé]

To be fair, Georgia is probably going to be one of Barr's best states and have some of the highest name recognition with the candidate, I mean he was a congressman there for some time not too long ago.

You must not have followed his last race there.

[charltonNick]

does anyone know what African American turnout in Ga was in 2004?

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'll wait for another poll (or 2) before I pass judgement on this one. Obama is likely to outperform Kerry, but I doubt he can actually win, or even make it close.

[Verily]

does anyone know what African American turnout in Ga was in 2004?

CNN's 2004 exit poll had them at 25% of the electorate against 30% of the population.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/GA/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_%28U.S._state%29#Race.2C_language.2C_and_age

[Stranger in a strange land]

does anyone know what African American turnout in Ga was in 2004?

CNN's 2004 exit poll had them at 25% of the electorate against 30% of the population.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/GA/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_%28U.S._state%29#Race.2C_language.2C_and_age

Bush did almost as well among white evangelicals as Kerry did among blacks, and white evangelicals were 35% of the electorate vs 25% for African Americans. Also notable, although Latinos were only 4% of the electorate in Georgia in 2004, Bush won them.

[Verily]

does anyone know what African American turnout in Ga was in 2004?

CNN's 2004 exit poll had them at 25% of the electorate against 30% of the population.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/GA/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_%28U.S._state%29#Race.2C_language.2C_and_age

Bush did almost as well among white evangelicals as Kerry did among blacks, and white evangelicals were 35% of the electorate vs 25% for African Americans. Also notable, although Latinos were only 4% of the electorate in Georgia in 2004, Bush won them.

Tiny subsample for the exit poll. Or else they're mostly Cubans, which is also possible.

[Alcon]

I imagine Georgia has an unusually high % ineligibility for their growing Hispanic population (Mexicans in northern Georgia), but I have no real idea.