Most competitive races (aggregate prediction)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 11:09:03 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  Most competitive races (aggregate prediction)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Most competitive races (aggregate prediction)  (Read 3677 times)
Badlands17
Rookie
**
Posts: 33


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 02, 2008, 07:48:47 PM »
« edited: August 02, 2008, 07:50:24 PM by Badlands17 »

If a race has more than a 95% chance of going one way or the other as determined by the prediction data, it won't be given a rank because most maps that predict a contrary result are maps not intended to be a realistic outcome and thus equivalent to statistical noise (those races are AL, AR, DE, GA, ID, IL, IA, KS, MA, MI, MS-A, MT, NE, NJ, OK, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, WV, WY-A, and WY-B). MS-B can only be given an estimate because of different people counting MS-A and MS-B.

1. AK - Begich vs. Stevens (52.6%)
2. MN - Coleman vs. Franken (62.5%)
3. OR - Smith vs. Merkley (68.7%)
4. MS-B - Wicker vs. Musgrove (~70%)
5. LA - Landrieu vs. Kennedy (79.3%)
6. NH - Shaheen vs. Sununu (86.7%)*
7. ME - Collins vs. Allen (86.7%)*
8. CO - M. Udall vs. Schaffer (87.7%)
9. NM - T. Udall vs. Pearce (88.8%)
10. NC - Dole vs. Hagan (89.1%)*
11. VA - Warner vs. Gilmore (89.1%)*
12. KY - McConnell vs. Lunsford (91.2%)

* The tiebreaker used in the event of the same number of predictions being made for an outcome is the aggregate confidence, which was strong for VA but only lean for NC. In the case of NH and ME, where the confidence for both was lean, I used the number of predictions rating it a tossup, which was higher for NH.
Logged
MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,812


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2008, 08:04:00 PM »

Interesting. Welcome to the forum, Badlands.

How did you determine those percentages? Is this based on a regression analysis?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.208 seconds with 12 queries.