US presidential elections: What if Iran?

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Hello

Are you ready?

I'll speak about Iran again...

There are more and more noise in the sense of that Bush could open a war with Iran as he is still president.

Which impact do you think it would have on the campaign?

Do you think he could suspend the electoral process without a date if such a thing happens?

I heard about presidential directives decided by Bush administration that would give full powers to White House if an important crisis arise, do you think he could use it in this sense?

How far do you think that Bush can go with Iran? With the power at White House?

Thanks...

[The Mikado]

The USA had an election in 1944, at the height of the Second World War.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

The USA had an election in 1944, at the height of the Second World War.

Well, I tend to think that with Bush administration, no matter what happened before, everything is possible!

[Jacobtm]

Bush cannot change the election date, we will have it on November 4, 2008.

[Senator Ben]

No, absolutely not.

[Hashemite]

No, absolutely, absolutely not.

[Χahar]

I wouldn't put it beyond him.

But really, no. We had elections in 1862 and 1864 and 1942 and 1944.

[Erc]

I wouldn't put it beyond him.

But really, no. We had elections in 1862 and 1864 and 1942 and 1944.

And 1812 (where we came damn close to kicking out a war-time president), and 1814, and 1918 (when the ruling Democrats in Congress were largely given the boot).

[Mr. Morden]

How would Bush even go about suspending the election?  The election is run by the states, no?  Would they actually listen to him if he told them to cancel polling?  What, is he going to send in the U.S. army to forcibly shut down polling stations?  Would the generals even listen to him if he gave such an order?

[Judäischen Volksfront]

How would Bush even go about suspending the election?  The election is run by the states, no?  Would they actually listen to him if he told them to cancel polling?  What, is he going to send in the U.S. army to forcibly shut down polling stations?  Would the generals even listen to him if he gave such an order?

He'd be arrested, tried, and shot by a kangaroo military tribunal within 12 hours, like Ceausescu.

[Senator Sbane]

I guess Bush could try to suspend the elections but considering his track record he would probably f***  that up too.

[Old Europe]

I guess the only scenario where a U.S. presidential election could be "suspended" is during/after a nuclear war... provided its a limited enough war that some basic governmental structures survive.

Otherwise it would probably lead to the impeachment/resignation of the incumbent president.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No: there is no legal mechanism for the president to suspend an election, nor is there a precedent, as elections were held in 1864 during the Civil War, 1944 during World War II, 1968 and 1972 during Vietnam, and during Iraq in 2004. Democratic institutions in the United States are far too secure for this type of scenario to happen.

If you're asking what the effect of a strike on Iran would be, it's hard to say. There could be a rallying around the flag, or the people could say enough is enough and turn on McCain and other Republicans at the polls.

In terms of what form military action will take, it will most likely involve air strikes, as the army is too heavily committed to Iraq and Afghanistan to invade Iran.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

No: there is no legal mechanism for the president to suspend an election, nor is there a precedent, as elections were held in 1864 during the Civil War, 1944 during World War II, 1968 and 1972 during Vietnam, and during Iraq in 2004. Democratic institutions in the United States are far too secure for this type of scenario to happen.

If you're asking what the effect of a strike on Iran would be, it's hard to say. There could be a rallying around the flag, or the people could say enough is enough and turn on McCain and other Republicans at the polls.

In terms of what form military action will take, it will most likely involve air strikes, as the army is too heavily committed to Iraq and Afghanistan to invade Iran.

Yeah. You're pretty much right, except for the last thing you said. I think McCain could get a chance for a war with Iran by as early as 2010-2011. The idea that I thought of would be that Petreus would begin withdrawing the soldiers from Iraq in September after declaring victory. This declaration of victory could give McCain the 10 point late-campaign bounce that propelled the GOP to victory in 1988, 2000 and 2004, if their high-tech lynching of Obama fails or back fires and could turn a small Obama landslide into a comfortable 2004-esque McCain victory, and a 40,45 state landslide for McCain if the lynching works.  After than, McCain can preside over removing half of the troops from Iraq whilst leaving about 6 or 7 brigades there. At that point, he should be able to call the reserve, and have about 25 or 30 brigades ready to invade Iran by mid-term. If there is no major change in the Middle East by the Mid-Terms, and if he does well in the mid-terms, he will invade Iran under a mandate that is provided by  a weakened Democratic, if not Republican congress. If there is another terrorist attack, or if Iran explodes a Nuclear Weapon before the 2010 elections, we will probably invade before the mid-terms and the country will rally behind the flag and throw the fledgling Democratic Majority out to give McCain the mandate he needs to continues the wars. However, if McCain and Peterus are dead set on occupying Iraq, and nothing happens, I think McCain, if he wins by lynching Obama, like Dukakis and Kerry were lynched, will probably not even touch Iran because airstrikes would be pretty useless and would most certainly backfire. Iran's nuclear capabilities would go relatively unharmed and there would be a new Embargo that would push gas prices to around 6-10 dollars a gallon.

Long story short- We either attack Iran or we don't....and we will only attack Iran if the Republicans are in power in 2010. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

If we attack Iran and oil prices skyrocket to 200 a barrel, there could well be a 1980-type wave against the Republicans. People need gas to get to work.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

If we attack Iran and oil prices skyrocket to 200 a barrel, there could well be a 1980-type wave against the Republicans. People need gas to get to work.

I think that if US attacks, or if Israel does (which would lead to a US participation, yes, if Israel attacks, Iran retaliates, and so US attacks Iran to defend Israel...), 200$ the barrel could be the price when the news would say that the first rocket is fell on the Iranian ground. Then, it could go higher and higher, imagine everything what can happen just in the Persian Gulf if such an attack is launched.

Then, do you really think that peoples will think that choosing Democrats in such circumstances will give them a less expensive gas? Or do you think they could choose Dems to punish the Reps to have gone in a such war? Personally, I would be surprised of both.

To me an Iranian war under Bush administration, what we are talking about, would lead more peoples to the experience of Mc Cain than to the youth of Obama.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

 As many people have said, Presidential and Congressional elections have been held during wartime with examples ranging from The War of 1812 to the Second World War, and even in the scenario you have created, with the United States going to War with Iran, Presidential and Congressional elections would still be held. If they're still having elections during the Second World War, then they would be having elections during the War in Iran, which will never happen, or so I hope.

[agcatter]

Some of you people are absolutely paranoid.

No

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Some of you people are absolutely paranoid.

Is that forbidden to imagine such or such thing?

We're just speaking, aren't we?

;-)

[Hashemite]

Yes, please post such threads in Alternate History.

[Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay]

Yes, please post such threads in Alternate History.

Well, I'm talking about Future, not about History, am I not?

[Applezz]

Only congress can make that decision. The only way an election would be postponned would be if something extremely dramatic happaned. If terrorists were planning to attack the USA on November 4th, it;s possible.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Only congress can make that decision. The only way an election would be postponned would be if something extremely dramatic happaned. If terrorists were planning to attack the USA on November 4th, it;s possible.

Not even then.

[opebo]

If an american city were nuked (presumably by the military/CIA) and blamed on Iran, it could happen. 

However there is no need as the prospect of a Democratic president is no threat at all to the owners.