Most Likey Dem Seats to Flip/For sure Dem Pickups

[Padfoot]

Currently CQ politics rates the following five Democratic held seats as "No Clear Favorite."  Would you agree that they are the 5 Democratic held seats most likely to flip in November?

In no particular order:

AL-5 Bud Cramer (retiring)
OR-5 Darlene Hooley (retiring)
FL-16 Tim Mohoney
KS-2 Nancy Boyda
LA-6 Don Cazayoux

On the flip side, CQ is already predicting a Democratic advantage in the following three seats:

AZ-1 Rick Renzi (retiring)
VA-11 Tom Davis (retiring)
IL-11 Jerry Weller (retiring)

They even go so far as to rate IL-11 "Democratic Favored" rather than "Leans Democrat."  Do you think these seats have already been determined for the Democrats?  Are there any other currently GOP held seats they're nearly guaranteed to win?

[bgwah]

The GOP nominated a terrible candidate in OR-5, IIRC, so it will probably stay Dem.

[Dan the Roman]

AL-5 doesn't belong on the list.This seat is really the inverse of NJ-07 in that on first glance it should be a prime takeover target, but all the local dynamics favor the incumbent party. The main difference with NJ-07, is that money and the national factors all favor the incumbent party as well.

 It is a Democratic area in state elections, and Al Gore only lost it 54-44 - a good margin for a democratic seat in the South.

The Democrats also have an AAA candidate in St. Senator Parker Griffith, while the Republicans have a second tier candidate who last ran for office twelve years ago and lost. Furthermore, Wayne Parker, the likely GOP nominee failed to win the nomination without a runoff, and has to fight against a self-funder up until July 18th when he will enter the election with no money.

I would actually stick this seat somewhere between lean Dem and Dem favored.

As for OR-5, go Google Mike Erickson and then tell me this seat will be within ten points. This is WV-02 circa 2000, where a competitive seat is lost because one candidate is completely unelectable. The Republican paid for a woman he was having an affair with to get an abortion, then lied about it, and now the medical records have come out showing he was lying in his trust me tv-ads. This one is Democrat favored if not safe.

As for the others they are about right. I would put  Fl-16 at slightly over 50% chance of flipping, and Ks-2 slightly below that mark. As for the others I think it is about right.

[minionofmidas]

Where's Nick Lampson? One step further in lean Rep?

Lampson, Mahoney, Boyda, potentially Cazayoux (depends on Rep primary dynamics... who'll be running there? A runoff would be the last primary of the entire season, just four weeks before the election), we need one more. NH-1 perhaps.

Arizona filing deadline is still a bit away, but unless Reps suddenly find a decent candidate, that one's a goner (although it won't be a blowout. Hard for the Rep vote to go far below 45% here, at least as long as there isn't an entrenched Dem incumbent.) IL-11 is certainly gone. Haven't really followed VA-11 - can't say whether it's got less of a Rep hold chance than the Rep seats they have as tossups, several of which (NY25, NJ3 - they actually still have that one as Lean Rep!, OH15, OH16) belong in Lean Dem.

[Spaghetti Cat]

We have a better chance of picking up PA-4 than OR-5 and AL-5.

[Mr.Phips]

Where's Nick Lampson? One step further in lean Rep?

Lampson, Mahoney, Boyda, potentially Cazayoux (depends on Rep primary dynamics... who'll be running there? A runoff would be the last primary of the entire season, just four weeks before the election), we need one more. NH-1 perhaps.

Arizona filing deadline is still a bit away, but unless Reps suddenly find a decent candidate, that one's a goner (although it won't be a blowout. Hard for the Rep vote to go far below 45% here, at least as long as there isn't an entrenched Dem incumbent.) IL-11 is certainly gone. Haven't really followed VA-11 - can't say whether it's got less of a Rep hold chance than the Rep seats they have as tossups, several of which (NY25, NJ3 - they actually still have that one as Lean Rep!, OH15, OH16) belong in Lean Dem.

I would move KS-02 to lean Dem.  The latest Dem poll had Boyda leading Ryun 53%-37%. 

[Conan]

We have a better chance of picking up PA-4 than OR-5 and AL-5.

[Padfoot]

Where's Nick Lampson? One step further in lean Rep?

Wrong direction actually.  They still consider him a slight favorite and rate the race as Lean Dem.  I'm guessing the only reason for it not being a tossup is that Lampson represented some portions of the district previously before the mid-decade GOP gerrymander.

[Sam Spade]

Where's Nick Lampson? One step further in lean Rep?

Wrong direction actually.  They still consider him a slight favorite and rate the race as Lean Dem.  I'm guessing the only reason for it not being a tossup is that Lampson represented some portions of the district previously before the mid-decade GOP gerrymander.

In that case, they don't know what they're talking about.  The part of the CD Lampson used to represent is in Galveston County and comprises 8%, maybe 9% of the CD, at best.

Lampson got 68.5% there in 2006, while getting 51.8% district-wide.
Morrison (DeLay's opponent in 2004) got 55.8% there in 2004, while getting 41.1% district-wide.

In other words, Galveston County isn't going to save Lampson unless the election is razor-thin otherwise.

[Spaghetti Cat]

We have a better chance of picking up PA-4 than OR-5 and AL-5.

I would definitely say we have a better chance in PA-4, just for the fact that we don't have great candidates in AL-5.

[Padfoot]

Where's Nick Lampson? One step further in lean Rep?

Wrong direction actually.  They still consider him a slight favorite and rate the race as Lean Dem.  I'm guessing the only reason for it not being a tossup is that Lampson represented some portions of the district previously before the mid-decade GOP gerrymander.

In that case, they don't know what they're talking about.  The part of the CD Lampson used to represent is in Galveston County and comprises 8%, maybe 9% of the CD, at best.

Lampson got 68.5% there in 2006, while getting 51.8% district-wide.
Morrison (DeLay's opponent in 2004) got 55.8% there in 2004, while getting 41.1% district-wide.

In other words, Galveston County isn't going to save Lampson unless the election is razor-thin otherwise.

From CQ on TX-22:

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There was also a GOP primary run-off so that might be influencing their rating as well.

[jimrtex]

There was also a GOP primary run-off so that might be influencing their rating as well.

The was a runoff because there were 10 Republican candidates in the primary.