ID-1: Governor Butch Otter (R) seeking to defeat Bill Sali behind the scenes?

[MarkWarner08]

I sometimes wonder if Representatives like Jean Schmidt and Bill Sali exist to  solely perturb their party's Congressional leadership. All three represent districts that routinely served up 60% or more wins for the previous Republican incumbents. Schmidt seems to ensconced herself; most Democrats acknowledge that 2006 was the best opportunity to upset the controversial conservative incumbent. If musing  one week before the election about the potential of storing nuclear waste in your district doesn't lead to one's defeat, it's difficult to conceive of a scenario that would. Since her 1% win in 2006, Schmidt has listened to her consultants, replacing bombastic barbs with assiduous constituent services work.

Unlike Schmidt, Sali refuses to be strait-jacketed by well-intentioned consultants. Instead, Sali prefers to insult a 1/3 of his caucus, stiff key campaign vendors, and take a lackadaisical approach to fundraising. Normally this wouldn't matter because Idaho's First Congressional District is located in Idaho, one of the most stubbornly Republican bastions in America. No matter how many times Helen Chenoweth made inflammatory statements, Democrats would win come within ten points of securing victory (at one point, they missed by just 4%).

The key factors in this race are Obama's top-ballot performance and the grassroots abilities of the Democrat's campaign. If Obama wins near 40%, Democrat Walt Minnick could pick up 2-3% among straight-ticket, low-information voters. If Walt Minnick can outspend Sali by a solid margin, perhaps around 2-1, he'll enjoy an unprecedented (in recent Idaho history) financial advantage. If Minnick can invest in both a  few ads rehashing Sali's litany of absurd comments and a solid ground game, he may pull out enough votes to enjoy a one-term stay in Congress.