When will the first VP announcement be made, and who will make it?

[Verily]

Something that doesn't get discussed very often here. John Kerry's choice of John Edwards was (intentionally) leaked to the press on July 6, and was, as I recall, the earliest public VP selection. Al Gore selected Joe Lieberman in early August of 2000 while Bush made his selection of Cheney public on July 25.

It is unlikely that a VP decision from either side will come before Kerry announced his decision in 2004, which at the time was probably prompted by declining poll ratings as the Abu Ghraib scandal faded from voters' minds. But will they both come in August? Both in July? McCain first, because he's trailing and needs a boost? Or Obama first, because his numbers have begun to slip, or for some other reason?

[Verily]

Oh, and Bob Dole confirmed speculation that Jack Kemp would be his VP candidate on August 10, 1996.

[Reaganfan]

I say Obama chooses his running mate in early August...and McCain chooses his in mid-late August.

[Verily]

I say Obama chooses his running mate in early August...and McCain chooses his in mid-late August.

That would be an unusually late selection. I think we can probably rule out any choices coming after Kemp in 1996 much as we can rule out any choice coming before Edwards in 2004. After all, everyone rushes to be at the front of newscycles much more so than even a decade ago.

[Mr. Morden]

Verily, you can't just look at the date the announcement was made in isolation.  You have to look at when it was made relative to when the convention was held.  IIRC, in every one of those cases except for Kerry/Edwards, the announcemet was made just days before the convention.  The announcements this time around are likely to be late in calendar terms because the conventions are so late.

[Erc]

So far, pretty much every announcement but Edwards '04 was within 10 days of the convention...especially on the Republican side, where Kemp '96 was I believe the first VP not chosen at the convention itself.

I doubt McCain will break with tradition, and I also doubt he wants to give up the strategic advantage he has in having a later convention...a momentary poll boost isn't worth giving up the chance to see who the Democratic VP is first before making the final decision.

Obama will pick sometime in August.  The Olympics makes it a slightly harder task than usual...if he doesn't pick in the first week of August, he has to either announce it during the Olympics or at the Convention itself.

McCain likely announces either on August 30th, or potentially earlier if Obama announces well before the Convention.

[Erc]

A post I made back in March on the subject:

With the exception of Reagan's abortive bid to announce Schweiker in 1976, pretty much all VP's before 1984 were picked during the convention.  Mondale's 'historic' pick of Geraldine Ferraro was announced pre-convention, while the Republicans didn't start picking pre-convention until 1996, when Dole chose Kemp 2-3 days before the convention. 

Kerry's pick of Edwards nearly 3 weeks before the convention was unprecedented.  This year, it's unlikely (unless there's an unexpectedly early resolution or a compromise ticket) that the Democrats will pick a VP that early.  Republicans have a tradition of waiting it out...though McCain may pick earlier than a week before the convention if he feels he needs some free media.  In any event, considering the Republican convention is in September (and the previous week is dominated  by media attention for the Democratic Convention), there may be some pressure to pick a VP early.  So it could be...July, or August 18th-ish, or August 30th (if he wants to wait & see who the Democrats pick).

1984:
Announced: July 12
Convention: July 16 - 19

1988 (R):
Announced During the Convention

1988 (D):
Announced: July 13
Convention: July 18 - 21

1992:
Announced: July 9
Convention: July 13 - 16

1996:
Announced: August 10
Convention: August 12 - August 15

2000 (D):
Announced: August 7
Convention: August 14 - 17

2000 (R):
Announced: July 25
Convention: July 31 - August 3

2004:
Announced: July 6
Convention: July 26 - July 29

[TheresNoMoney]

Tim Pawlenty will be McCain's VP pick, bank on it.

[The Mikado]

I've been thinking that it will happen if one party or the other falls really behind and needs to generate some earned media.  That being said, I think the first pick will be in either the last week of July/first week of August.

[Meeker]

When do the Olympics end?

[Verily]

Verily, you can't just look at the date the announcement was made in isolation.  You have to look at when it was made relative to when the convention was held.  IIRC, in every one of those cases except for Kerry/Edwards, the announcemet was made just days before the convention.  The announcements this time around are likely to be late in calendar terms because the conventions are so late.

True, I hadn't been thinking about that. But I also think that, with tradition being broken, candidates are much more likely to announce at a politically convenient time (as early as c. July 10 being possible) rather than the traditional time.

[Mr. Morden]

Verily, you can't just look at the date the announcement was made in isolation.  You have to look at when it was made relative to when the convention was held.  IIRC, in every one of those cases except for Kerry/Edwards, the announcemet was made just days before the convention.  The announcements this time around are likely to be late in calendar terms because the conventions are so late.

True, I hadn't been thinking about that. But I also think that, with tradition being broken, candidates are much more likely to announce at a politically convenient time (as early as c. July 10 being possible) rather than the traditional time.

Well, you've also got to account for the fact that the selection and vetting process is extremely thorough these days.  It takes a really long time, and the Obama campaign got a late start at it (because the Democratic primary contest went longer than it had gone in years this time).  So that points towards Obama making his choice rather late.  McCain started much earlier, but, as Erc said, McCain has a strategic advantage with a later convention, in that he can wait to see who Obama picks first, and then take that into account when making his own decision.

[© tweed]

I say Obama chooses his running mate in early August...and McCain chooses his in mid-late August.

That would be an unusually late selection. I think we can probably rule out any choices coming after Kemp in 1996 much as we can rule out any choice coming before Edwards in 2004. After all, everyone rushes to be at the front of newscycles much more so than even a decade ago.

...and this is an unusually late convention

[Mr. Morden]

And just now, I caught this post by Ambinder:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/vice_presidential_searches_an.php

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Btw, maybe I'm in the wrong demographic group or the wrong social circle or something, but does the world really stop when the Olympics are being held?  Just based off of people I know, I wouldn't have expected that the Olympics are *so* popular that any political announcement made during the games is expected to get buried.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'll expect Obama to make the announcement by the start of the Olympics.

[Verily]

And just now, I caught this post by Ambinder:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/vice_presidential_searches_an.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Btw, maybe I'm in the wrong demographic group or the wrong social circle or something, but does the world really stop when the Olympics are being held?  Just based off of people I know, I wouldn't have expected that the Olympics are *so* popular that any political announcement made during the games is expected to get buried.

Not that popular, no, but I imagine it's much better not to competing for space on the major networks. And the Olympics are likely to get coverage for the controversy of being in China as well as for whenever an American wins anything. It wasn't something that occurred to me, but it might put early August out of range as the options are a Friday, a weekend, and a weekday before the opening of the Olympics, which will be the main news story over the following weekend.

[Erc]

I believe the Olympics end on the 24th, and the DNC begins on the 25th, so no room on that end of the spectrum.

[Verily]

Maybe July 31, then? Or I suppose it could happen during the Olympics but well after the opening ceremony and well before the end. August 14 would work.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Obama will do it on July 4th!

[RJEvans]

Obama will do it on July 4th!

That is the worst possible day to announce a VP. No one is home on July 4. No one is paying attention. In my opinion, he will announce after McCain in early/mid August. The campaign is aware that there is more excitement on the Democratic side and will likely get more coverage over their pick. Unless of course McCain does the dramatic and picks Rice or Palin, or someone like that.