When does the 2012 board start?

[Mr. Morden]

I'd start it on Nov. 5th.  Back in 2004, McLaughlin & Associates actually had the first 2008 poll conducted on Election Day 2004.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd start it on Nov. 5th.  Back in 2004, McLaughlin & Associates actually had the first 2008 poll conducted on Election Day 2004.

Intrade (or then, it was still part of TradeSports) started betting on the 2008 elections 2 days before the 2004 elections.

Did they only do it for the GOP, or did they even do it for the Dem. nomination (given that, 2 days before the election, there was still the chance that Kerry would win, and become the odds on favorite to be renominated in '08)?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, then I assume they won't start the nomination markets for 2012 until after the 2008 race has been called (since one of the two parties will have in an incumbent in '12, but we don't know which one).  They might start a general election market for 2012 though, in which you just bet on which party will win.