MS: Rasmussen: McCain up by 6%

[Josh/Devilman88]

New Poll: Mississippi President by Rasmussen on 2008-06-24

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[The Ex-Factor]

Based on the favorable/unfavorable ratings of this poll, I really think around 44% is Obama's highest peak. 36% very favorable, 37% very unfavorable. Yikes.

[Lief 🗽]

Dear Rasmussen,

Racial breakdowns please.

Love,
Lief

[agcatter]

44% is indeed Obama's absolute ceiling.

McCain wins by low double digits.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The final result will probably look like this:

McCain 54%
Obama 45%
Barr/Other 1%

[Flying Dog]

Maybe every black in the state will come out and vote and all the whites won't....alright, back to reality.

[TheresNoMoney]

Obama will end up with 46% or 47% of the vote in Mississippi, hopefully enough to help Musgrove win a Senate seat.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The final result will probably look like this:

McCain 54%
Obama 45%
Barr/Other 1%

Obama will end up with 46% or 47% of the vote in Mississippi, hopefully enough to help Musgrove win a Senate seat.

LOL. Keep it coming guys!

[Flying Dog]

The final result will probably look like this:

McCain 54%
Obama 45%
Barr/Other 1%

Obama will end up with 46% or 47% of the vote in Mississippi, hopefully enough to help Musgrove win a Senate seat.

LOL. Keep it coming guys!

Ya know, I'm kind of getting sick of you criticizing every statement you don't like with a snide remark and not backing it up with anything. Tell me, why is it impossible for Obama to help Musgrove win his senate seat by turning out the black vote. The poll shows him getting 44%, why is 45% or 46% so impossible and unrealistic? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

*raises eyebrow*

[Stranger in a strange land]

The final result will probably look like this:

McCain 54%
Obama 45%
Barr/Other 1%

Obama will end up with 46% or 47% of the vote in Mississippi, hopefully enough to help Musgrove win a Senate seat.

LOL. Keep it coming guys!

McCain will win MS whether he wins by 100 votes or 100,000. I do think Obama will do better than Kerry because he can motivate black people to get out and vote, while McCain will have trouble with white evangelicals and the conservative base. Obama getting 15% of the white vote in MS isn't that far-fetched: he got about 25% in the democratic primary, and white democrats in Mississippi are probably the most conservative democrats anywhere.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The final result will probably look like this:

McCain 54%
Obama 45%
Barr/Other 1%

Obama will end up with 46% or 47% of the vote in Mississippi, hopefully enough to help Musgrove win a Senate seat.

LOL. Keep it coming guys!

Ya know, I'm kind of getting sick of you criticizing every statement you don't like with a snide remark and not backing it up with anything. Tell me, why is it impossible for Obama to help Musgrove win his senate seat by turning out the black vote. The poll shows him getting 44%, why is 45% or 46% so impossible and unrealistic? 

Because he is bitter, he knows McCain will not win.

[exopolitician]

Just having MS within 6pts in the past few polls by itself is wtfworthy.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

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Because it's just outrageous. Obama will get 46-47% in Mississippi? He could very well help Musgrove, but blacks already vote in a very high percentage and already 90% for the Democrats.

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He could improve on Kerry's 39%, but an 8% improvement? Get real. He's not getting 46-47% in Mississippi, and he won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers. To suggest that is far fetched.

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I'm so happy that you can see what's going to happen in November, Mr. "80% sure Obama will win NC." I am not bitter; I am just tired of the Obama fanboys suggesting these crazy notions. One guy says something stupid and it seems like the rest try to out do him.

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So what? McCain was leading in Massachusetts and New Jersey. Is it fair that we Republicans can start talking about how McCain is getting 45% in Massachusetts? Most of you won't even cede that he could get that in New Jersey.

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes, I'm minded to agree that 44%, or thereabouts, may well be Obama's ceiling in MS; unless:

1) Obama can improve his favorables. A net favorable rating of -3 doesn't bode much room for growth

2) McCain makes a major stumble then sends his favorables crashing

As I've illustrated before, Obama needs the support of 1 in 4 white voters and 95% of black voters to have a 50-50 chance of winning MS, assuming a turnout that is 64% white and 36% black. And that to me is a pretty tall order.

Right now, I'd guess that 17% of MS whites support Obama - tops. Could be a shade less

Dave

[exopolitician]

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Because it's just outrageous. Obama will get 46-47% in Mississippi? He could very well help Musgrove, but blacks already vote in a very high percentage and already 90% for the Democrats.

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He could improve on Kerry's 39%, but an 8% improvement? Get real. He's not getting 46-47% in Mississippi, and he won't improve on Kerry's white vote numbers. To suggest that is far fetched.

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I'm so happy that you can see what's going to happen in November, Mr. "80% sure Obama will win NC." I am not bitter; I am just tired of the Obama fanboys suggesting these crazy notions. One guy says something stupid and it seems like the rest try to out do him.

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So what? McCain was leading in Massachusetts and New Jersey. Is it fair that we Republicans can start talking about how McCain is getting 45% in Massachusetts? Most of you won't even cede that he could get that in New Jersey.

A. I didnt even make the statement at the very top...so wtf pls.

B. Was McCain really leading in Mass. and New Jersey? I highly doubt that but I know the numbers looked odd at the very beginning and alot of people acknowledged that. Those numbers seemed to have corrected themselves though....while Mississippi's numbers have kinda...stayed the same.

[© tweed]

black turnout numbers aren't as great as you suggest, AHDuke.  if Obama can pump up black turnout and get 92% of the voting bloc, he could very conceivably approach the mid40s.

[Aizen]

According to this poll, Obama wins young voters (18-29) 75% to 22%. Doesn't this mean he's winning white voters among this age group?

[Tender Branson]

According to this poll, Obama wins young voters (18-29) 75% to 22%. Doesn't this mean he's winning white voters among this age group?

Yes. If we assume that 40% of the young MS voters are AAs and they back Obama with 95%, then he must have at least 60-65% of the 60% who are Whites to achieve 75% overall.

[auburntiger]

Final result: McCain wins 57-43

[SPQR]

The final result will probably look like this:

McCain 54%
Obama 45%
Barr/Other 1%

Obama will end up with 46% or 47% of the vote in Mississippi, hopefully enough to help Musgrove win a Senate seat.

LOL. Keep it coming guys!

Alright,he'll get 28%,happy now?

[Brittain33]

Alright,he'll get 28%,happy now?

I think we should draw up articles of surrender conceding that Barack Obama and all of his supporters are hypocrites and liars, polls favoring Obama should be dismissed with a hearty and mandatory LOL by all posters, and that all states declared to be competitive for McCain are indeed competitive.

Anything to end this tiresome siege.

[True Democrat]

According to this poll, Obama wins young voters (18-29) 75% to 22%. Doesn't this mean he's winning white voters among this age group?

I think Kerry won this group in 2004 anyway.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Did Josh just play the jealousy card?

[minionofmidas]

44% is indeed Obama's absolute ceiling.

McCain wins by low double digits.

Correction: Losing by 6 is indeed Obama's absolute ceiling (unless a miracle happens.)
This is not to say that 44, or a McCain win by low double digits (same thing really) are unrealistic... indeed, they're more likely.

According to this poll, Obama wins young voters (18-29) 75% to 22%. Doesn't this mean he's winning white voters among this age group?

I think Kerry won this group in 2004 anyway.

Indeed. According to 2004 exit polls, Kerry won young voters in Mississippi. We mostly dismissed this as a lolworthy subsample (though partly explained by the slightly higher black percentage in this group), but maybe we were wrong about that (although that would mean that in areas with a statistically significant white (prez elections) Dem presence... ie the Hill Country - Kerry must have done quite well among young voters. Which is a stretch.) 75-22 though seems laughable.