1952: Truman/Stevenson vs. Taft/Nixon

[cmt]

Let's say President Truman decided to run again.  He certainly would have been renominated.  He decides to replace Vice President Barkley, who at 74 is deemed too old, with another running mate and Truman asks Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson to be his VP running mate.  Ever reluctant, the convention is mesmerized by Stevenson's welcoming speech and the party prevails upon him to run and reluctantly Stevenson agrees.  On the GOP side, Truman dodges a bullet when the hardliners narrowly nominate conservative "Mr. Republican" Robert Taft.  As his running mate Taft tries to interest General Eisenhower but is unsuccessful--"I won't be a number two man to a number two man."  Taft looks for youth and goes with California Senator Richard M. Nixon, who unlike Stevenson, is anything but reluctant to accept. 

The general election is tough and hard-hitting.  Unlike 1948 there is no Dixiecrat candidate, but the south is still not enthralled with Truman, due to his support for civil rights.  Taft concentrates on peripheral southern states like VA, FL, and Texas and the border states of TN and KY.  Truman gets in 1948 mode and makes two cross country "whisltestop" tours even tho by 1952 air travel was replacing, for the most part, the whistlestop.  Taft campaigns by rail and air.  The two VP candidates spend most of their time traveling by air. 

The big issues for the GOP campaign is corruption, communism and "Time for a change" after 20-years of Democratic rule.  Truman in his travels stresses prosperity.  Unlike Dewey in '48, Taft runs a much more agressive campaign attacking the Truman record.  Truman counters that Taft is "no friend of the working man" reminding union voters that Taft is the Taft of "Taft-Hartley."  Both Taft and the president spend a good deal of time trying to woo the farm vote.  Taft is convinced that it was the main reason why Dewey lost in '48.  Truman reminds farmers that farm prices "have never been so good--and do you want to jinx that by voting Republican?"  By and large the war is off limits though Taft does say it has been "mismanaged." 

Nixon, the GOP VP nominee, spends much of his time in the west especially along the west coast: California, Oregon and Washington.  He also represents Taft agressively in Texas where he assails the Truman administration as being "soft on communism."  Stevenson's task is to help the president with the independent vote and spends a good deal of his time in the East particularly in New York.  He also works agressively to hold his state of Illinois for the Democratic ticket, and counter Nixon in California among reform minded voters. 

Truman's final swing takes him from Washington to Philadelphia, with whistlestops thru PA and another major rally in Pittsburgh.  He then moves tru central Ohio, into Indiana and up to Chicago for a major Democratic torch light parade and rally (with Stevenson) and then works his way down Illinois to Missouri and his final rally on Saturday night (before the election) in St. Louis. 

Taft's final swing takes him by train to stops in Connecticut, Pennsylvania (also a major rally in Philadelphia), New Jersey, Boston, and into New York for a rally at Madison Square Garden.  He will then whistlestop to his home state of Ohio and a climactic rally in Cincinatti. 

On election Eve, both Truman and Taft make their final appeals to voters by television.  Truman from Kansas City and Taft from Cincinnatti. 

Who wins?

[cmt]

Truman over Taft 292-239

[CPT MikeyMike]

Truman has no chance in 1952. His approval rating was around 20%.

[cmt]

actually opinion polls indicate that Truman probably could have beaten Taft who was generally considered to be too conservative, tho Truman would have lost handily to Eisenhower, who had much more support among independent and democratic voters.  Taft would have helped unite democrats behind Truman.  Even in his first term Truman had poor approval ratings.  For instance, according to Gallup in early 1947 his approval rating was 27% and wasn't much higher than the mid 30's even into 1948.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Taft: 307 EV
Truman: 187 EV
Unpledged: 37 EV

[Хahar 🤔]

He wouldn't have been renominated.

[Lincoln Republican]

Taft promises to protect the United States from the threat of "Godless Communism" and Nixon's anti Communist rhetoric fits right in with this theme.

Taft assails Truman for his weak leadership over the Korean conflict, and promises to go to Korea himself and "bring peace to this region."

The young, tough talking Nixon attacks Truman and Stevenson for their "lack of courage in the face of encroaching Communism." 

Instead of 442/89 Eisenhower over Stevenson, with Taft vs Truman the results are

Taft/Nixon                      336
Truman/Stevenson        195

Truman goes to the well one too many times and ends up as a rejected old pol past his expiry date.