Why did Barry Goldwater almost lose in 1980?

[ChrisFromNJ]

I'm not sure if this is the correct place (if it isn't, please let me know where), but I noticed in Goldwater's last re-election race in 1980, he only won by 10,000 votes against Bill Schultz.

This seems quite odd seeing as how he won by 17% in 1974 and 15% in 1968.

It is also particularly odd seeing as how much coattails Reagan had that election.

Why did he only win by 10,000 votes in his Arizona 1980 senate race?

[King]

Goldwater became a vocal social liberal in his later years and that pissed off the Reaganites.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'cos he'd gone gaga.

[dead0man]

Were there any dramatic population changes during the time in question?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Were there any dramatic population changes during the time in question?

Arizona was growing at 4.3% a year at the time. So, yes. But not the sort of population shifts you'd expect to hurt an incumbent Republican.

[dead0man]

Were the dynamics of the population changing?  (ie, more Mexicans, older Democrats moving away from the cold, Mormans,etc)

[Wakie]

Several reasons.  Foremost was the rise of the Christian Right in the GOP.  Goldwater was a true believer in libertarianism and supported gay rights and abortion.  Mix in the fact that he rarely minced words and was getting older and a bit more cantankerous.  You can imagine how well it sits with some when a guy who calls himself "half-Jewish" speaks in favor of reproductive rights.

He was late in deciding to run for office in 1980 and many thought he was out of touch.  He opponent was a former Republican turned Democrat with a huge war chest.

Lastly the population of Arizona was exploding so there were many voters who didn't have a "history" with Goldwater and only knew him from his '64 Presidential campaign.

[WalterMitty]

senility.