InTrade Presidential odds

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winner
Democrat 68.4
Republican 32.2
Field 1.0

Democratic electoral votes
>210 90.0
>220 87.4
>230 85.6
>240 82.4
>250 78.9
>260 74.0
>270 66.1
>280 60.0
>290 55.0
>300 47.0
>310 38.0
>320 32.5
>330 26.5
>340 20.0
>350 16.0
>360 12.5
>370 10.0
>380 8.5





Democratic odds by state
DC 96.3
IL 96.0
HI 93.5
MD 93.0
NY 93.0
WA 92.0
RI 92.0
DE 90.8
VT 90.5
MA 89.5
NJ 89.0
CA 87.1
CT 87.0
OR 85.5
ME 85.2
WI 84.0
IA 81.5
MN 78.0
PA 75.0
CO 74.0
MI 73.0
NM 70.7
NH 67.0
OH 65.1
VA 59.9
NV 53.0
MO 52.5
FL 39.8
IN 34.0
NC 30.0
MT 27.5
AR 21.0
GA 20.0
ND 17.5
AK 17.0
MS 15.0
NE 14.0
TX 13.5
TN 12.0
LA 12.0
SD 11.5
WV 11.0
OK 11.0
KS 10.5
SC 10.1
AZ 10.0
KY 9.0
ID 7.5
WY 7.2
AL 7.0
UT 6.9

NM is the critical state, giving Obama 269
For a majority, NH is the critical state, giving him 273

[Sensei]

good time to buy McCain, if anything.

[Torie]

So many of these markets are pathetically thin. I could dump 5K into the mix, and move the numbers materially.  But yes, Obama having 2-1 odds of winning seems about right at present. It is at least 3-2.

[Mr. Morden]

Top 10 in the two VP markets:

Dems:

Webb 24.9
Clinton 17.0
Bayh 10.0
Gephardt 10.0
Sebelius 9.1
McCaskill 8.5
Rendell 8.0
Hagel 7.5
Biden 6.3
Gore 6.0

GOP:

Romney 25.0
Pawlenty 16.0
Palin 15.0
Crist 11.4
Huckabee 11.3
Cantor 10.0
Thune 10.0
Portman 9.3
Jindal 8.0
Lieberman 5.5

[Speed of Sound]

I'd buy bayh. (and that wasnt just for the homophone )

[Verily]

Wow, the Dem VP market is a disaster. Of the candidates on that list, only Sebelius and Biden have any serious chance at being chosen. And the morons really piled on Gephardt after a Republican said Obama should pick him. At least the Republican list is more sensible.

[Mr. Morden]

Wow, the Dem VP market is a disaster. Of the candidates on that list, only Sebelius and Biden have any serious chance at being chosen. And the morons really piled on Gephardt after a Republican said Obama should pick him. At least the Republican list is more sensible.

Meh, I think Bayh and Webb have a reasonable chance of being chosen as well.  And on the GOP side, I think Romney, Palin, Crist, and Huckabee are way way less likely to be chosen than most people think.

[Mr. Morden]

Update on VP markets:

Webb 18.0
Clinton 17.0
Sebelius 9.1
McCaskill 8.7
Rendell 8.0
Gephardt 7.5
Bayh 7.0
Hagel 6.9
Biden 6.2

Romney 27.7
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 12.4
Huckabee 11.0
Crist 8.1
Portman 8.0
Cantor 6.5
Lieberman 5.5
Fiorina 5.3
Graham 5.0

[DownWithTheLeft]

Rendell is still probably the best pick for Obama

Anyway, buying MO for McCain is a great buy right now along with WI given the ridiculous numbers

[Mr. Morden]

Crist's engagement has bumped him up into a tie for 3rd place in the GOP VP market:

Romney 27.7
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 12.4
Palin 12.4

[Mr. Morden]

Big shakeup on the Dem VP odds, with Webb seemingly ruling himself out:

Clinton 15.5
Sebelius 9.3
Hagel 8.6
Rendell 8.0
Richardson 8.0
Biden 7.7
Bayh 7.5
McCaskill 6.5
Edwards 6.0
Kaine 5.4

[Mr. Morden]

Sanford finally breaks into the top tier on the GOP side:

Romney 27.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 12.4
Palin 12.4
Huckabee 12.0
Sanford 10.0
Portman 8.0
Cantor 6.5
Lieberman 5.5
Fiorina 5.3

[Mr. Morden]

Bayh now up to 2nd place in the Dem. VP odds:

Clinton 15.3
Bayh 11.9
Sebelius 10.3
Hagel 10.0
Kaine 8.5
Biden 8.1
Richardson 6.1
Nunn 6.0
McCaskill 5.1

and Huckabee now tied for 2nd and Sanford drops out of the top 10 on the GOP side:

Romney 26.9
Huckabee 14.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Crist 10.0
Portman 8.0
Fiorina 7.0
Palin 7.0
Thune 6.0
Cantor 5.0
Jindal 4.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bayh seems like a poor choice now that liberals are not likely to give Obama the benefit of the doubt.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton / Sebelius surge:

Clinton 25.0
Sebelius 16.0
Bayh 10.0
Edwards 8.0
Kaine 8.0
Rendell 8.0
Reed 7.9
Hagel 7.6
Biden 7.2

Palin rebounds, and Perdue cracks the top 10 for the first time:

Romney 24.6
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 13.9
Huckabee 13.0
Crist 8.5
Portman 8.0
Fiorina 7.0
Thune 7.0
Cantor 6.5
Perdue 5.0

[Tender Branson]

The critical state of this election is Colorado, not New Mexico.

Prediction:

Colorado: Obama 50, McCain 48
New Mexico: Obama 52, McCain 46

[Brittain33]

Can you short Virginia? 60% chance for Obama there is ludicrous.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Bob Barr is ridiculously overvalued on Intrade. If I'm reading this right, he's at 6.1% to get 7.0% of the vote or more & at 6.5% to win electoral votes.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton drops some, and Kaine rises all the way up to 3rd place in Dem. VP odds:

Clinton 20.0
Sebelius 15.0
Kaine 12.0
Bayh 10.2
Reed 7.9
Hagel 7.5
Biden 7.2
Nunn 7.0
McCaskill 6.5
Richardson 6.5

Romney drops and Sanford rebounds back above 5:

Romney 20.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 12.0
Huckabee 11.1
Crist 8.5
Fiorina 7.0
Portman 7.0
Cantor 6.0
Sanford 6.0
Thune 6.0

[Torie]

I hope Obama picks Sebelius. She's a drone, with some problems. But he won't  What is wrong with picking Kaine I wonder?

[Mr. Morden]

What is wrong with picking Kaine I wonder?

Only 3 years' experience holding major office.  Though I guess it's possible that Obama wants to double down on the inexperience thing.

[Torie]

What is wrong with picking Kaine I wonder?

Only 3 years' experience holding major office.  Though I guess it's possible that Obama wants to double down on the inexperience thing.

Pretty good riposte. I was thinking about that, but was too lazy to do a bio on Kaine.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Can you short Virginia? 60% chance for Obama there is ludicrous.

You can short any state.

What is wrong with picking Kaine I wonder?

Only 3 years' experience holding major office.  Though I guess it's possible that Obama wants to double down on the inexperience thing.

Also that would put the right wing nutjob Lt. Gov. in office for a year.

[Mr. Morden]

Dem VP market: Sebelius now leads, while Kaine is close to overtaking Clinton for second place:

Sebelius 17.9
Clinton 15.1
Kaine 15.0

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton now down to 3rd place (narrowly) in Dem. VP market:

Sebelius 16.0
Bayh 15.0
Clinton 14.8
Kaine 13.0
Edwards 9.9
Biden 9.5
Reed 9.0
Hagel 7.9
Nunn 7.0

Port-mentum:

Romney 24.1
Pawlenty 16.2
Portman 13.5
Crist 12.5
Palin 12.0
Huckabee 11.0
Fiorina 10.0
Cantor 6.0
Sanford 6.0
Thune 6.0