InTrade Presidential odds

[Mr. Morden]

I would honestly not be surprised if the person who bought a share of Christine Todd Whitman had heard about the Meg Whitman buzz, and just got confused.  Some people are that foolish.  IIRC, there was a bit of a bump for Tommy Thompson in the GOP presidential nomination market back when there was buzz about Fred Thompson possibly entering the race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I would honestly not be surprised if the person who bought a share of Christine Todd Whitman had heard about the Meg Whitman buzz, and just got confused.  Some people are that foolish.  IIRC, there was a bit of a bump for Tommy Thompson in the GOP presidential nomination market back when there was buzz about Fred Thompson possibly entering the race.

This is probably the rationale, yes.

[Mr. Morden]

Afternoon update--paw-mentum:

Romney 45.0
Pawlenty 40.0
Ridge 10.1
Rice 6.1
Brownback 5.0
Kasich 5.0
Lieberman 5.0
M. Whitman 5.0
L. Graham 4.9
C. Todd-Whitman 4.9

Weird shakeup in the 2nd tier.

[HardRCafé]

Brownback?

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty takes the lead:

Pawlenty 44.1
Romney 38.3

[Mr. Morden]

Latest VP odds:

Palin 81.0
Collins 50.0 (wtf?)
Fred Thompson 16.0 (wtf?)
Ridge 8.0
Romney 8.0
Rice 5.8
Portman 5.5
Brownback 5.0
Cantor 5.0
Lieberman 5.0

[Alcon]

Uh, who is Collins?

[ZamboniDriver]

Susan Collins of Maine, maybe?

[Mr. Morden]

Susan Collins of Maine, maybe?

Yes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Palin @ 88.9.
Pawlenty @ 0.5.

[DownWithTheLeft]

As far as Fred Thompson, that's probably the people that listened to Krauthammer say he would be the best pick

[© tweed]

Intrade has a new market out: "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election"

currently trading at 13.9

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's Intrade contract is virtually unchanged from where it was before the Palin pick.

[Mr. Morden]

Current GOP VP odds:

Palin 97.2
F. Thompson 2.1
Jindal 2.0
Pawlenty 2.0
Romney 1.9
Collins 1.0
Lieberman 1.0
Rice 1.0
Ridge 1.0
M. Whitman 1.0

[Eraserhead]

Intrade has a new market out: "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election"

currently trading at 13.9

It was only a matter of time.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Intrade has a new market out: "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election"

currently trading at 13.9

[© tweed]

I strongly doubt that it is going to happen, but the fact that it's being discussed isn't good for McCain

[Sam Spade]

Hey, if someone wants to bet here, I advise you to enjoy wasting your money.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For the first time since the primaries, McCain to win the Presidency is trading above Obama to win the Presidency.  (And, perhaps, for the first time ever, GOP to win the Presidency is trading above Dems to win the presidency.)

McCain: 50.6
Obama: 49.4

[© tweed]

(And, perhaps, for the first time ever, GOP to win the Presidency is trading above Dems to win the presidency.)

not at all.  this was the case for much of 2005, IIRC.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

PARTY WINNER
Democratic odds 51.8%
Republican odds 48.8%

DEMOCRATIC ODDS BY OBAMA CAMPAIGN'S BATTLEGROUND
IA 75
WI 72
MI 67
PA 66
NM 64
NH 57
CO 54 CRITICAL SWING
NV 52
OH 50
VA 46
FL 33
MT 27
IN 25
MO 25
NC 25
ND 10
GA 10

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade gives Barr a 32% chance of getting more than 1% of the national popular vote, and a 4.7% chance of getting at least one electoral vote.  They also give "electoral college tie" a 6% chance of happening.

And most amusingly, Hillary Clinton is still at 3.0 to win the White House in November, and "Hillary Clinton to be on Democratic ticket on 2008 election day" is trading at 5.0.  I guess the scenario would be that either Biden dies or goes down in a massive career ending scandal, and Obama picks Clinton to replace him....or, *Obama* dies or goes down in a massive career ending scandal, and party elders decide that Clinton is a better replacement for the top of the ticket than Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

[Dan the Roman]

Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

You realize that in the event of a tie where the Senate elects the Vice President they are not obligated to vote for one of the candidates. They can choose anyone. In fact, in the event of an actual deadlock with no President, I doubt they would pick anyone from either ticket at the risk of looking too partisan, and might well settle for someone like Feinstein who would be at least minimally tolerable to Republicans. While the Democrats could conceivably push through Biden, doing so after they failed to ram through Obama in the house(and it would only go to the Senate if the Democrats failed to hold their caucus together in the house) would look much worse than trying to get a unanimous vote for interim President.

[Fritz]

I had to go check my books when I read this.  You are wrong.

US Constitution Amendment XII, section 2:  ...and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list the Senate shall choose the Vice-President...

The Senate could only vote for Biden and Palin, no one else.