“If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were independent Rex Rammell, Republican Jim Risch and Democrat Larry LaRocco, for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?”
By Jill Kuraitis, 7-01-08
Internal polling for former congressman Larry LaRocco, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, shows he trails opponent Lt. Gov. Jim Risch by 15 percentage points, plus or minus 4.5%. Risch had 43%, LaRocco 28%, Rammell 6%, Other 6%, and Undecided 18%.
But when voters were read LaRocco and Risch’s stance on issues, LaRocco took the lead at 40 to 37 percent, with the same margin of error. Rammell was 5%, Other 5% and Undecideds dropped to 13%.
The poll was conducted between May 20 and 25 by Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. 500 likely Idaho voters were questioned.
As I wrote yesterday, President Bush’s disapproval rating came in at 54% in LaRocco’s poll – the first time a majority of Idahoans disapproved of the job Bush is doing. With a 4.5 margin of error, that could be as high as 59.50% or as low as 49.5%.
Surprisingly, more than one-third of those polled either didn’t know of, or had no opinion of Risch, who was briefly governor two years ago and has been lieutenant governor for five years. More than half didn’t know or have an opinion of LaRocco.
Asked to review Risch’s performance for his job as lieutenant governor, 49% said he did an excellent or good job while 31% rated him as fair or poor.
For his job as governor, 42% rated Risch as excellent or good while 38% rated him as fair or poor.
Risch’s general unfavorable rating was 23% and LaRocco’s 20%.
Applying the margin of error to head-to-head numbers for LaRocco and Risch produces two widely different scenarios: the candidates could be as far apart as LaRocco 10.5%, Risch 47.5% - or as close as LaRocco 32.5%, Risch 38.5%. That and Risch’s relatively low job approval numbers could give encouragement to the LaRocco campaign.
Poll respondents were asked which issues were most important to them:
Jobs and the economy, 21%
Energy independence and gas prices, 17%
War in Iraq, 12%
Health care and prescription drugs, 9%
Social Security and retirement security, 7%
Taxes, 7%
Education, 5%
Homeland security and terrorism, 4%
Illegal immigration, 2%
Ethics and political corruption, 2%
Budget deficits, 2%
Farming and agriculture, 2%
Mortgage foreclosures, 1%
Other, 3%
http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/larocco_releases_poll/C37/L37/
