A Little Less Bloodletting

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It is generally agreed that George Washington's death on December 14, 1799 was due to excessive bloodletting, so what happens if he doesn't insist on so much of it from his doctor?

1800
Reluctantly, George Washington issues in March a public rebuke of Hamilton for his political backstabbing.  This weakens Hamilton and strengthens Adams.  More importantly, as a result of this change, in the April elections for the New York State legislature, the Federalists keep a narrow majority and thus New York's 12 electors will be Federalist instead of Democratic-Republican.

Other than some other mild political butterflies, the rest of the events of 1800 progress normally.

1801
With Hamilton sidelined, the Federalists did better in the elections of 1800 than in OTL, but not everything goes their way.  On March 4, the United States begins its first experience with divided government as President John Adams will have a Democratic-Republican House to contend with during his second term.  The Senate is evenly divided, but at least Adams will have a Vice President of his own choosing, Charles Cotesworth Pinckney of South Carolina to preside over it.

There is no urgency for much to be done, so the divided 7th Congress will see little legislation passed.  Since Marbury does get his job, there will be no case of Marbury v. Madison. to establish the concept of judicial review.

1802
There will be no Enabling Act passed in 1802, so Ohio will have to wait a while longer than in OTL to become a State.  The question of what to do with the Northwest Territory becomes a minor issue in the election of 1802, but since there is no clear partisan divide, it only excites a few voters Kentucky, Virginia, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.

1803
The 8th Congress that is seated on March 4 is divided as well, with the Federalists holding the Senate outright and the Democratic-Republicans the House.  Because of this divide, no commissioners are sent to Napoleon to negotiate a purchase of New Orleans as Adams sees no chance that the House would agree to spend the necessary funds.

1804
The Northwest Compromise is agreed to.  The Northwest Territory (modern Ohio and Eastern Michigan) is split into two parts, Ohio Territory (Ohio south of 41°N) and Detroit Territory (Ohio north of 41°N and Michigan east of 84°48′W) with the Ohio Territory to become a State once it had adopted a Constitution.  One result is that Chillicothe, Ohio will remain the capital of Ohio.

Early in the year, Adams announces that he will follow the precedent established by Washington and serve only two terms.

Up next: The election of 1804.

[Хahar 🤔]

Very nice. Please continue.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The election of 1804/5

On the Federalist side, Charles Cotesworth Pinckney is the obvious choice for the top of the ticket, but the bottom is less clear.  Pickney decides for regional balance and picks Henry W. Livingston of New York.

The Democratic-Republicans have a harder time settling on a nominee.  Jefferson's finances are even worse in this timeline compared to ours, and has been forced by his creditors to sell Monticello and most of his slaves.  The ex-Sage of Monticello had been unable to draw on the public purse for his extravagances during the last four years nor on his stature as a former President to persuade his creditors to relent.  As a result, no one outside Virginia is willing to support him running for President a third time.  It takes a while, but eventually the Speaker of the House, Nathaniel Macon of North Carolina is selected to be his standard bearer.  Gov. George Clinton of New York is his choice for Vice President.

The economy has been relatively good, and the recent ending of the Barbary War also enhances Federalist prospects.

Vote:

State	D-R	Fed
CT		9
DE		3
GA	6
KY	8
MD	5	6
MA	2	17
NH		7
NJ		8
NY	19
NC	14
OH	0#
PA		20
RI	4
SC		10
TN	5
VT		6
VA	23*
Total	86	86

# Ohio did select 3 Democratic-Republican electors in the event that it was admitted as a State in time for their votes to count, but Congress did not get around to admitting Ohio until the 9th Congess
* Has had been the case in 1800, both parties had included George Washington in their slate of electors in Virginia, and as he had done in 1800, he cast a blank ballot.

You might think 86-86 and things go into Congress to be decided, but it wasn't quite that simple.  Hamilton had been up to his old tricks, and this time they actually worked.  He managed to get a New York elector to cast ballots for Macon and Livingston instead of Macon and Clinton.  Adding to the confusion, 2 of the Virgina electors chose to cast ballots for Macon and Jefferson, and a pair of Maryland electors, (1 from each party) voted for Secretary of the Navy Benjamin Stoddert of Maryland and their respective vice-Presidential nominee.  Last but not least, the Federalists had arranged for one of their Connecticut electors to vote for Pinckney and Stoddert as a means of ensuring that their choice for President and Vice President was clear.  The net result was:

86 Henry W. Livingston (F-NY)
85 Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (F-SC)
85 Nathaniel Macon (DR-NC)
83 George Clinton (DR-NY)
 3  Benjamin Stoddart (F-MD)
 2  Thomas Jefferson (DR-VA)

No one has the majority, and thus, the top five go into the House of the lame duck 8th Congress to be decided.  There is a deadlock there, (with among other absurdities, the Maryland delegation voting for Stoddart on every other ballot), which the Federalists are happy to live with as they did well enough in the elections for the 9th Congress that it will be resolved in their favor if they wait it out.  However, some Congressmen devise a scheme to gain favor from the Third President with a scheme as nearly as convoluted as anything Hamilton could devise.  On the 53rd ballot, the House elects Henry W. Livingston as President. With Pinckney and Macon tied, the decision sitting Vice President and Speaker of the House went into the Senate.  The Federalist Senate quickly chooses to keep Pinckney.

The accidental President proves to be capable, though the circumstances of his election ensure not only that this timeline sees the passage of the Twelfth Amendment, four years behind schedule, but also that President Livingston will not be renominated in 1808.

The question of the timing of the admission of Ohio that also affected the election causes Congress to send to the States a separate amendment governing the timing of admissions to attempt to depoliticize them so that they would take effect only at beginning of a new Congress.  Only ten of the seventeen States approve it by the time of the next election and afterwards it will languish in obscurity.

[A18]

Marbury did not establish judicial review.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Marbury did not establish judicial review.

I agree that the idea in general predates Marbury, but as far as Federal law is concerned, Marbury was the case that established it as being something more than part of the vague penumbras of Article III.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

This is good Ernest and I mean very good. Excellent job. Now I didn't expect Henry Livingston to become President. Sure I have no idea who Livingston is but still it's always good to see surprises occur and with alternative history TL's you never know what to expect.

It's always good to see some alternative history TL's from this era we don't have enough of them around, especially on this forum. Do you plan to continue this to the modern day or up until a certain point?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This is good Ernest and I mean very good. Excellent job. Now I didn't expect Henry Livingston to become President. Sure I have no idea who Livingston is but still it's always good to see surprises occur and with alternative history TL's you never know what to expect.

It's always good to see some alternative history TL's from this era we don't have enough of them around, especially on this forum. Do you plan to continue this to the modern day or up until a certain point?

I plan on continuing this until at least the point where things are so different as to cause it to be hard to continue.  Whether that's the modern day, I can't say yet.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1805

Detroit burns down as in OTL, causing a "temporary" move of the capital of Detroit Territory to Cleaveland, Detroit (OTL Cleveland, Ohio).

In Europe, the War of the Third Coalition is progressing more or less on schedule.  President Livingston keeps to a policy of armed neutrality and with a solid Federalist Congress authorizing the construction of an additional six frigates to the 38-gun standard of the Constellation.  These six, Bonhomme Richard, Columbia, Eagle, Independence, Liberty, and  Stars and Stripes, would be completed by 1807, but not launched or commissioned, as they were to be kept in ordinary until war approached.  The Naval Act of 1805 also authorized the construction of 17 light frigates of 26 guns each (1 for each state) that were in part to replace the subscription frigates such as the Boston and the Philadelphia that had been hastily built during the Quasi-War.  (In this time line, butterflies cause the New York to be lost at Tripoli instead of the Philadelphia.  The last of the 26's, Tennessee was not completed until 1810, and until war broke out, there was never more than 6 of them in commission at any one time, though they rotated in and out of ordinary.

1806
The most significant piece of legislation in 1806 was the Canal and Road Act of 1806 which established a Federal interest in internal improvements.  The plan was ambitious, suffered from inconstant funding, and was never fully implemented before railroads rendered it moot. However, the routes surveyed for the roads surveyed under the Act would prove to also be the routes followed by the first railroads and the Eire Canal (completed in 1819 in this timeline, six years early) would help to make New York the premier city of the United States.

1807
The 10th Congress saw the Democratic-Republicans retake the House over concerns about the ambitious Federalist spending plans.  However, support for drastic cutbacks in the Navy evaporated before the 10th Congress was seated when the British occupy New Orleans from the French in June and Pensacola and Mobile from the Spanish in July.  The British don't interfere with American trade via New Orleans save for what it was already doing on the high seas, but still the feathers of the American eagle have been ruffled.  Opinion is divided three ways about what to do between those who favor fighting the British, those who favor fighting the Spanish, and those who favor continued neutrality.  What is generally agreed is the need to be prepared for war if need be, which means that when the United States is finally tipped into war, it will be better prepared than it was for the War of 1812 in OTL.

1808
The Peninsular War would present new options for the United States, though its effects would be slight in the Americas this year.  The main effect this year would be that in September, the British return not only the Floridas to the theoretical control of the Bourbon King of Spain, but also Louisiana, thereby nullifying the Treaty of San Ildefonso.  However, Ferdinand is a captive of Napoleon and the British troops remain, so it is a difference whose main effect is to make some Americans who had favored war with Spain as a means to obtain the Florida to also be in favor of war with Britain.  While the fuel for war has been laid, the spark has yet to be ignited.

Domestic concerns also figured in the election of 1808.  Once again Charles Cotesworth Pinckney will contest for the Presidency.  Regional balance causes him to select Sen. James Hillhouse of Connecticut as his running mate, and this time it will be certain that he will not accidentally promoted as the Twelfth Amendment has been passed.

The Democratic Republicans prove unable to coalesce on a single ticket.  Nathaniel Macon, James Madison and George Clinton all seek the job and none is willing to concede to the other this time.  Macon runs a national campaign while Clinton focuses on New York and New England and Madison proves strongest in the central states.

President

State	CCP	NM	JM	GC
CT	9
DE	3
GA		6
KY		1	5	2
MD	3	4	4
MA	19
NH	7
NJ	8
NY		5	2	12
NC		14
OH			3
PA			20
RI	4
SC	10
TN			5
VT	6
VA			24
Total	69	30	63	14

Vice President

State	JH	NM	JM	GC	Other
CT	9
DE	3
GA			6
KY			2	5	1
MD	3	4	4
MA	19
NH	7
NJ	8
NY		2	8	6	3
NC			14
OH				3
PA				20
RI	4
SC	7		1		2
TN				5
VT	6
VA	14			8	2
Total	66	6	35	47	8

(Others: James Monroe: 3; Aaron Burr:2; Alexander Hamilton, Thomas Jefferson, and James Livingston: 1)

Pinckney is helped by the Democratic-Republican disarray, but not enough.  While the election will go into the House, Macon throws his support to Madison in exchange for Madison's support for Macon remaining Speaker, so it is an anti-climax.

The lame duck Federalist Senate picks Hillhouse, but both houses of Congress will be controlled by the Democratic-Republican Party when the 11th Congress convenes.

Incidentally, because Hillhouse wins the Vice Presidency, he will remain in politics much longer than in OTL, turning down the chance to be Treasurer of Yale College.  Without his fundraising prowess, Yale remains a small college. nearly going bankrupt twice during the 19th century during financial panics.  Instead of Yale, the primary rival of Harvard University will be Dartmouth University, with the Crimson and Green game often determining not only the Ivy League championship but also the national college football championship.  And by football, I mean rugby, not gridiron.  Without Walter Camp to promote it, the gridiron style of football never develops, and American football is essentially rugby with a few minor differences.

[Хahar 🤔]

The paragrpah about football was very interesting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The paragraph about football was very interesting.

Thank you.  I picked Hillhouse for Vice President and then serendipitously got the butterflies involving Yale and football.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1809
With both the Senate and the Presidency coming into Democratic-Republican hands for the first time, the lame duck Senate and the departing President Livingston fill as many vacant offices as possible.  Unlike the situation in 1801 in OTL, since the Federalists already did not have control of the House, no new offices were created, so there are no unsigned appointments left uncompleted when James Madison takes office.

1809 proves to be a solemn year. On April 30, twenty years to the day when he took the oath of office of President, George Washington dies.  Washington is buried at Mount Vernon, alongside his wife who died four years earlier. (Three years later than in OTL.)  Nor was he the only Founding Father to die.  Thomas Paine dies on June 8 (as in OTL).  And then on July 16, Thomas Jefferson, died.  These deaths, along with the change in administration make 1809 a commonly used dividing point in United States history in the future, depending on whether the War of 1810 is included in the initial phase of United States history.

1810
The spark for the War of 1810 is the West Florida Rebellion.  Settlers from the United States organize a rebellion against Spanish rule (hardly the only rebellion in Spanish America in 1810, but for the United States, the only one that mattered.) Actual fighting doesn't start until the taking of Baton Rouge by the rebels during September, so as a campaign issue it mainly affected the southern States due to time for the news to travel, and is not a party issue in the election of 1810.  The Federalists gain in the mid-term elections, but they fail to retake either House of Congress.

Speaking of which, the short-lived Republic of West Florida is admitted as the State of West Florida by Congress on November 30, over the objections of President Madison.  As admitted, West Florida includes all of the former British colony of West Florida (both the portion of West Florida that the Spanish had regained from the British in 1783, and that portion held by the United States since 1783).  That annexation is generally regarded as the start date of the war, altho the formal declarations of war aren't issued by the supporters of Ferdinand VII until 1811.

1811
At first, the British see little profit in fighting the Yankees and the Yankees see no reason to expand their war beyond Spain.  Initially the war goes well for the Americans as they seize New Orleans, St. Louis, and St. Augustine in the early part of the year.


The U.S. Navy has a good year in 1811 as it is facing only remnants of the Spanish Navy that have chosen to support the Bourbons and oppose Joseph Bonaparte as King of Spain.  While Joseph doesn't recognize the legitimacy of the American annexation of West Florida, as long as the Americans are only harrying the supporters of the Spanish Bourbons, he's willing to not bother with declaring a war he is in no position to fight anyway.  Besides, his older brother Napoleon hopes that the Americans can be enticed into fighting the British.  That may happen, but not because of anything the Bonapartes do.

As in OTL, Tecumseh's War comes to a boil in 1811.  Fewer U.S. forces are in the area, so the Battle of Tippecanoe is fought with roughly equal numbers instead of the 2:1 U.S. advantage in OTL.  Governor Harrison of Indiana Territory dies in the battle and never will be President.

1812

While the British saw no profit in helping the Spanish Bourbons, the same can not be said of the Indians.  By spring, they are providing arms and ammunition to Tecumseh's Confederacy at very liberal terms and the entire American Northwest was aflame with war.  By the end of summer, not a single white settlement remains north of the Maumee River in Detroit Territory, and Vincennes, the capital of the Indiana Territory has been burned to the ground.  Whether to declare war on the British in addition to the Bourbons will be a major issue in the 1812 elections, though both parties are split by the war.

On the Democratic-Republican side, the War Hawk faction led by the youthful Senator Henry Clay of Kentucky wants to declare war on Britain as well.  The Old Democrat faction led by Speaker Nathaniel Macon wants to fight only one war at a time.  Because of his initial opposition to the West Florida annexation and the disasters in the Northwest, President Madison has no support for a second term among the Democratic-Republicans.  Both factions favor continuing the war with Spain.

Conversely, the Federalists are united in opposing war with Britain, but split over the issue of war with Spain.  Vice President James Hillhouse leads the Loyal Opposition faction that favors the war with Spain, but sees no reason to risk war with Britain. Governor Caleb Strong of Massachusetts opposes both war with Britain and the Bourbons.

In the end, three tickets end up running.  Running under the War Hawk banner is the ticket of Henry Clay of Kentucky and Representative Langdon Cheves of South Carolina.  Speaker Nathaniel Macon decides not to risk his base of power in the House and instead forges a fusion ticket that supports war with Spain but opposes getting involved in a war with Britain right now.  Running under the Federal-Republican banner is the ticket of Vice President James Hillhouse and Secretary of State James Monroe.  Finally, running under the Liberty banner in just the nine northeastern States was the ticket of Governor Strong and Governor Roger Griswold of Connecticut.

(Note: In several states, electors were elected as part of either Federalist or Democratic-Republican slates which then fragmented between two tickets.)

Ticket

State	WH	FR	Lib
CT		7	2
DE		4
GA	8
KY	12
MD	3	7	1
MA		9	13
NH		6	2
NJ	3	5
NY		29
NC	15
OH	5
PA	9	16
RI			4
SC	11
TN	8
VT		4	4
VA	25
WF	3
Total	102	87	26

Griswold's death in late October has the effect of scattering his electoral votes, but since his ticket came in third, it has no effect on the outcome.

The Democratic-Republican controlled Senate initially favored a gentleman's compromise of picking the Democratic-Republican Vice President from the other ticket, but Governor Griswold's untimely death reminds them that it is possible that it could matter who wins the Vice Presidency, and they elect James Madison on the first ballot by the margin of 20-16.

In the House, the initial ballot is 8 States each for Clay and Hillhouse, with New Jersey split and Rhode Island supporting Strong.  On the sixteenth ballot, one New Jersey Representative and both Rhode Islanders switch, giving Hillhouse the 10 States he needs.

However, despite his victory, in the 13th Congress, the War Hawks will control the House while the Senate will be a chaotic mess as no faction has a majority, and it is unclear whether the election of 1812 presages a permanent shift in political parties or not.

[Хahar 🤔]

Excellent update as usual.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1813

President Hillhouse is busy trying to fight both the Confederacy and Spain while trying to keep the peace with Britain and forge a new political party.  In that last, he is helped by the failure of Macon to not only keep the Speakership, but also to be reelected to the House as a result of the near total War Hawk sweep of the South and West.  Free to forge his own political alliances, Hillhouse chooses to not attempt to revive he fortunes of the Federalist Party and instead attempts to organize a new Republican Party from the Old Democrats and Loyal Opposition factions.  How well that will work is largely dependent upon the outcome of the war and his efforts at diplomacy.

Hillhouse decided to establish regional commands for the Army given the wide scope of American operations.  To command the Army of the Northwest, he brought out of retirement Major General "Lighthorse" Henry Lee III.  General Lee was able to achieve a degree of success, thanks in part to having adequate forces to do the job .  1813 would be largely quiet for the other main Army commanders.  The Senior Officer of the United States Army, Major General James Wilkinson, retains control of the forces dealing with Spanish Florida as commander of the Army of the South.  Unlike OTL, the Creek Civil War remains a purely internal affair and Andrew Jackson will have a quiet year.  Brigadier General Wade Hampton of South Carolina is in charge of the Army of Louisiana, and last and least, Major General Alexander Hamilton is also brought back and given command of the Army of the Northeast (Virginia to Maine).

Diplomatically, Hillhouse engages in two major efforts in 1813, one is to send John Quincy Adams off to Britain to attempt to get them to stop aiding Tecumseh, the other steals a page from the British playbook and involves supporting José María Morelos in the Mexican War of Independence with money, material, and most importantly, the United States Navy.  As a result, Morelos will have significantly more success than in OTL.

There is also our first significant European butterfly in 1813.  Because Spanish attention has been diverted more towards the Americas, there will be about 6,000 fewer Spanish troops at the Battle of Vitoria  (one-third the Spanish forces, one-twentieth of the Allied forces)  Vitoria is still an Allied victory, but it is not a rout and the French forces are able to retreat in good order.  Unlike OTL, Marshal Soult will be able to relieve the siege of San Sebastian in July, thereby keeping the French from being pushed back over the Pyrenees.  This has the follow on effect of keeping Austria from joining the Allies in the War of the Sixth Coalition in August, unlike OTL.  While the French Empire will eventually crumble, it will take longer.