State of the Presidential Race - July 12, 2008

[Tender Branson]

This is how I see the race right now:



Red - Solid Obama-State: 200 EV

Light Red - Potentially Weak Obama-State which McCain is targeting: 52 EV

Dark Green - Bush-State which Obama is targeting and where he is currently leading: 95 EV

Middle Green - Bush-State which Obama is targeting and where he is currently NOT leading: 52 EV

Light Green - Bush-State which Obama is not targeting but a recent (Zogby) poll has shown him ahead: 24 EV

Blue - Solid McCain state: 115 EV

[exopolitician]

Obama isnt leading in Missouri. Unless I missed something?

EDIT: jk...

but still that one poll doesnt mean hes leading there. I think its slightly leaning McCain/tossup.

[Tender Branson]

Obama isnt leading in Missouri. Unless I missed something?

Check the Polling Board.

[Hash]

Do not include Zogby in any analysis. In fact, taking a three-poll average is much better than just one poll.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama is currently leading in Missouri and Florida? I guess he is if we are counting obscure pollsters (in Florida's case). Your map would be more accurate if you used respected pollsters rather than using the polls that show the best outcome for Obama. I doubt many of us believe he'll win Florida at this point.

[NOVA Green]

This is how I see the race right now:



Red - Solid Obama-State: 200 EV

Light Red - Potentially Weak Obama-State which McCain is targeting: 52 EV

Dark Green - Bush-State which Obama is targeting and where he is currently leading: 95 EV

Middle Green - Bush-State which Obama is targeting and where he is currently NOT leading: 52 EV

Light Green - Bush-State which Obama is not targeting but a recent (Zogby) poll has shown him ahead: 24 EV

Blue - Solid McCain state: 115 EV

So are you using Zogby for all of these states, or just for the "light green" (Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina)?

[Ronnie]

Your logic is fatally flawed if you use Zogby to influence the positions on the board.

Also, as Duke said, don't just use polls on your board that have the best results for Obama.  He is not going to win Florida.

[Flying Dog]

His brain is fatally flawed if he's using Zogby!

[Torie]

McCain is losing [loosing I should have said; that is way we do it here] Florida now - decisively. The Cubans have gone Commie Lib. The race is over. We might as well not have an election. Sob!

[Flying Dog]

McCain is losing Florida now - decisively. The Cubans have gone Commie Lib. The race is over. We might as well not have an election. Sob!

Finally, somebody with some sense!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama will win Florida by the same margin Gore did.

[Sam Spade]

Zogby, ugh...

Btw, if McCain is leading Florida at present, I have a bridge to sell you not too far from where I live.

[HardRCafé]

McCain is losing [loosing I should have said; that is way we do it here]

Thank you.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

well, you sure are an optimistic democrat.

how in the world is south carolina and arizona not McCain. South Carolina has voted republican for every presidential election since 1952 with the exception of 1960 and 1976. there is no way that south carolina will go democrat this year or any time soon.

on arizona, this is McCain's homestate. Yes, it is more democrat than South Carolina, but it is McCain's homestate and it went solid for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Arizona has voted for a republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 1996. It also is not going democrat any time soon.

Arrogant.

Still, I agree that this map is unlikely.

[7,052,770]

Obama is targeting Mississippi as much as he's targeting Georgia...

[NOVA Green]

Obama is targeting Mississippi as much as he's targeting Georgia...

OK--- but aren't both equally long shot options? I am skeptical at this point of his viability in either state.

[Tender Branson]

So are you using Zogby for all of these states, or just for the "light green" (Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina)?

Do not include Zogby in any analysis. In fact, taking a three-poll average is much better than just one poll.

His brain is fatally flawed if he's using Zogby!

Don´t worry, my brain is fine. As you may know from the '08 polling board, I´m not a big fan of Zogby Interactive. I know they are/were far off and I only used them to show Obama "leads" in AZ, AR, SC - because no poll has shown him ahead so far this year. That doesn't mean I think Obama is ahead there at all. I merely wanted to point out groups of states and their likelyhood of going to Obama. Based on a national 3-4 point win for Obama, IA, NM, OH and CO are currently most likey to go to Obama. Then, next in line are Nevada and Virginia. Don´t ask me about Montana, North Dakota, Alaska and Indiana. Some of these states could see wild swings compared with previous elections, or maybe all polls we have seen so far, showing them closer than 2000/2004, were faulty.

well, you sure are an optimistic democrat.

how in the world is south carolina and arizona not McCain. South Carolina has voted republican for every presidential election since 1952 with the exception of 1960 and 1976. there is no way that south carolina will go democrat this year or any time soon.

on arizona, this is McCain's homestate. Yes, it is more democrat than South Carolina, but it is McCain's homestate and it went solid for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Arizona has voted for a republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 1996. It also is not going democrat any time soon.

We only had 2 polls from SC, it could be within single digits on Election Day, but it´s certainly lean McCain. The same accounts for AZ: Obama could get 43-47% ...

Obama is targeting Mississippi as much as he's targeting Georgia...

I was referring to the ads the Obama-campaign was running in 18 states. MS was not among them, but with amazing African-American turnout it could be within 10 points ...

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama is targeting Mississippi as much as he's targeting Georgia...

And I welcome Obama to sink all the money he wants in Georgia, Mississippi, and Kansas.

[7,052,770]

Obama is targeting Mississippi as much as he's targeting Georgia...

OK--- but aren't both equally long shot options? I am skeptical at this point of his viability in either state.

Definitely a big longshot, but at least as good of a chance as Georgia (unless Barr gets a big boost there).