Austrian Parliamentary Election - 28/09/2008

[Tender Branson]

Austria conservative party leader to recommend early elections at meeting of party officials

VIENNA, Austria: Austria's vice chancellor and leader of the conservative People's Party says he will recommend that early elections be called, indicating that the days of the country's "grand coalition" government are numbered.

Wilhelm Molterer, who is also Austria's finance minister, said Monday at a hastily called news conference that he would make the suggestion to senior party officials at a meeting Tuesday.

Austria has a so-called grand coalition government between the People's Party and the Social Democrats. Both have been bickering on and off since their union began in early 2007 following October 2006 elections that gave the Social Democrats a slight lead.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/07/07/europe/EU-POL-Austria-Coalition-Crisis.php

I don´t know if I should be happy or worried by this: Happy because this incompetent coalition is finally busted and I get to vote in the fall (just like you Americans) and rather worried, because the election will turn out as a protest vote which will ultimately favor populists like HC Strache and his far-right FPÖ, not to mention the gains by the ÖVP. An ÖVP-FPÖ coalition would be disastrous - but still the most likely outcome. I will nonetheless vote for the Green Party again, as I did in 2006.

For the 2006 elections, please watch the extensive coverage here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=41172.0

More news about the break-up, the reasons, polls and upcoming events as well as information about the upcoming election campaign will soon follow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_legislative_election%2C_2008

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalratswahl_in_%C3%96sterreich_2008

[Tender Branson]

Results of the Oct. 1, 2006 Elections:

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ)   1.663.986    35,34%    68 seats
Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP)                      1.616.493    34,33%    66 seats
Die Grünen - Die Grüne Alternative (GRÜNE)         520.130    11,05%    21 seats
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ)                    519.598    11,04%    21 seats
Liste Westenthaler - BZÖ (BZÖ)                            193.539      4,11%      7 seats
Others                                                                   194.535      4,13%

Eligible Voters: 6.107.892, Valid votes cast: 4.708.281, Turnout: 78.49%

...

Results by Electoral District:




Results by City/Town:



...

Current Polls:

ÖVP - 32%
SPÖ - 28%
FPÖ - 19%
Greens - 15%
BZÖ - 4%
Others - 2%

[Tender Branson]

In addition to ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, BZÖ and KPÖ, three other parties will likely participate in the elections, according to the newspaper "Österreich". The Liberal Forum will decide this weekend if they are on the ballot, Fritz Dinkhauser - who managed to get more than 18% in the recent Tyrol State Elections out of nowhere - will decided tomorrow and within the next month a new populist, EU-critical movement/party called "Save Austria" will likely rise from the ashes. Yes Jas, they are the ones that sent the letters to Ireland, urging the citizens there to reject the EU Treaty ...

[Harry Hayfield]

Results of the Oct. 1, 2006 Elections:

Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreichs (SPÖ)   1.663.986    35,34%    68 seats
Österreichische Volkspartei (ÖVP)                      1.616.493    34,33%    66 seats
Die Grünen - Die Grüne Alternative (GRÜNE)         520.130    11,05%    21 seats
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (FPÖ)                    519.598    11,04%    21 seats
Liste Westenthaler - BZÖ (BZÖ)                            193.539      4,11%      7 seats
Others                                                                   194.535      4,13%

Eligible Voters: 6.107.892, Valid votes cast: 4.708.281, Turnout: 78.49%

...

Results by Electoral District:




Results by City/Town:



...

Current Polls:

ÖVP - 32%
SPÖ - 28%
FPÖ - 19%
Greens - 15%
BZÖ - 4%
Others - 2%

PR I presume right?

[Tender Branson]

Current Polls:

ÖVP - 32%
SPÖ - 28%
FPÖ - 19%
Greens - 15%
BZÖ - 4%
Others - 2%

PR I presume right?

Yes, with a 4%-treshold for representation in parliament.

Meanwhile the date of the new election was set today in parliament - 28 September.

Fritz Dinkhauser, who won 18% in the recent Tyrol State elections, announced that his Citizen Forum will participate in the upcoming elections, but so far only in the state of Tyrol. The next weeks/months will show if he'll be on the ballot in the other 8 states too. I have calculated that he needs at least 3% in the rest of Austria - as well as the 18% in Tyrol - to get over the 4%-treshold of national parliamentary representation. I think he could get way more than 4% on election day, most likely 5-10%.

[Јas]

Yes Jas, they are the ones that sent the letters to Ireland, urging the citizens there to reject the EU Treaty ...

Appoarantly there were letter campaigns from across Europe - but I didn't get any

The Irish Times reported this morning that the government "after a row triggered by Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty".

[Colin]

What's this Citizens Forum like? Is it another one of these semi-populist anti-EU, anti-corruption parties like Hans-Peter Martin's List? Or is it actually going to come up with a coherent ideology?

[Tender Branson]

What's this Citizens Forum like? Is it another one of these semi-populist anti-EU, anti-corruption parties like Hans-Peter Martin's List? Or is it actually going to come up with a coherent ideology?

Most likely, yes. Anti-Transit, Anti-Inflation, cheap housing, higher wages, pro-environment, pro community-organizing ... Most likely EU-critical as well.

HP Martin will probably be on the ballot again. He said he got lots of letters recently asking him to run.

The Christian Party will likely be on the ballot as well (similar to the Republican Party). They oppose every form of benefits and legal recognition for homosexuals, oppose abortion from conception, in-vitro fertilisation, cloning and creation of human-animal-hybrids, stem cell research etc.

The "Save Austria"-Party will certainly run, the founders announced today.

A independent actor could run as well, making cultural and social issues his platform.

[minionofmidas]

Yes Jas, they are the ones that sent the letters to Ireland, urging the citizens there to reject the EU Treaty ...

Appoarantly there were letter campaigns from across Europe - but I didn't get any

The Irish Times reported this morning that the government "after a row triggered by Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty".

That is technically correct.
Note "after" a row. Not "due to" a row.
These elections are due to the left's bad polling.

[Tender Branson]

The first post coalition-breakup survey has arrived:

News/Market:

ÖVP - 33% (-1)
SPÖ - 26% (-9)
FPÖ - 22% (+11)
Greens - 14% (+3)
BZÖ - 4% (nc)
Others - 1% (-4)

God, the combined Right at 60%. *Vomit*

Additionally, 19% of voters could imagine voting for the Citizen Forum if they are on the ballot nationwide. 6% would definitely vote for them, 13% are somewhat likely to vote for them, exactly the potential I esitmated in a previous post.

[Verily]

Would Citizen Forum take votes mostly from the FPO as a protest vote, or from the mainline parties? (Hopefully they would take enough from the BZO to keep them below the threshold.)

[Tender Branson]

Would Citizen Forum take votes mostly from the FPO as a protest vote, or from the mainline parties? (Hopefully they would take enough from the BZO to keep them below the threshold.)

They were not included in this poll as an option. But from what I saw in the Tyrolian State Elections, they would get most of the votes from ÖVP/SPÖ/Greens. At least it would limit the flow to the Freedom Party. But a nationwide candidacy is far from certain, mainly because of financial problems. If they find a way to get on the ballot in all 9 states, I could see the FPÖ getting just 15% instead of 20%+, which would be very good. Better a normal protest party than a nazi/fascist one ...

I think the BZÖ will get around 30% of the vote in the state of Carinthia, so they would need just slightly more than 2% in the rest of Austria to cross the 4% barrier.

[Tender Branson]

Would Citizen Forum take votes mostly from the FPO as a protest vote, or from the mainline parties? (Hopefully they would take enough from the BZO to keep them below the threshold.)

Today the first poll with the Citizen Forum and HP Martin was released:

Gallup for Ö24 (800 Austrians aged 16+ questioned July 9, MoE = 4%):

ÖVP - 32%
SPÖ - 27%
FPÖ - 19%
Greens - 16%
BZÖ - 4%
Others - 2%

...

ÖVP: 23%
SPÖ: 21%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 14%
Citizen-Forum: 7%
HP Martin: 4%
BZÖ: ? (not mentioned in the article)

Hmm, assuming the BZÖ gets 4% again, there are still 9% left unaccounted. I can´t imagine the Christian Party will get more than 2%. The Liberals could get 3% at most I think. The "Save Austria" guys maybe 3% and the Communists their standard 1%. I will have to buy the newspaper tomorrow to check the real results.

[Hash]

The Liberal Forum still exists? Or is it some other liberal thingee?

[Verily]

The Liberal Forum still exists? Or is it some other liberal thingee?

They have an MP (elected on the SPO's list). But I thought they were going to run with the SPO again.

[Tender Branson]

The Liberal Forum still exists? Or is it some other liberal thingee?

They have an MP (elected on the SPO's list). But I thought they were going to run with the SPO again.

The LIF will decide this weekend if the'll run or not. Maybe they'll convince Heide Schmidt to be their frontrunner again.

The full results of the poll I posted yesterday:

ÖVP: 23% (-11.3)
SPÖ: 21% (-14.3)
FPÖ: 18% (+7.0)
Greens: 14% (+2.9)
CFA: 7% (+7)
BZÖ: 5% (+0.9)
HPM: 4% (+1.2)

LIF: 2% (+2)
KPÖ: 2% (+1)
SKÖ: 2% (+2)
Others (DCP, RETTÖ): 2% (+1.7)

[Tender Branson]

New Kurier/Integral poll:

ÖVP - 31% (-3)
SPÖ - 28% (-7)
FPÖ - 16% (+5)
Greens - 14% (+3)
Citizen Forum - 5% (+5)
BZÖ - 4% (nc)
Others - 2% (-3)

Majority for ÖVP-Greens-Citizen Forum.

[Tender Branson]

There's also the new Profil/OGM poll:

ÖVP - 33%
SPÖ - 30%
FPÖ - 18%
Greens - 14%

BZÖ - 3%
Others - 2%

Majority for ÖVP-FPÖ and SPÖ-FPÖ, but not for ÖVP-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

The full results of the poll I posted yesterday:

ÖVP: 23% (-11.3)
SPÖ: 21% (-14.3)
FPÖ: 18% (+7.0)
Greens: 14% (+2.9)
CFA: 7% (+7)
BZÖ: 5% (+0.9)
HPM: 4% (+1.2)

LIF: 2% (+2)
KPÖ: 2% (+1)
SKÖ: 2% (+2)
Others (DCP, RETTÖ): 2% (+1.7)

Gallup also provides a sub-sample of Tyrol and the Citizen Forum has enormous potential there: 27% would vote for them, that's even more than the ÖVP would get (23%) and 9 points more than they got in the recent state elections. If they really get close to 30% in Tyrol and 7% in all of Austria, it means they are getting at least 5% in the remaining 8 states. The thought alone is amazing: The Citizen Forum overtaking the Conservatives in a state that they used to win with 20%-margins 20 years ago ...

[Hash]

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Is such a coalition even possible?

[Tender Branson]

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Is such a coalition even possible?

Probably not, at least that's what the new party chairman of the Social Democrats said. But after the last elections, the Social Democrats broke a few of their core election promises, so I wouldn´t be surprised if they start talking with the FPÖ as well. But with the fusion of Citizen-Forum and HP Martin, it's unlikely that SPÖ/FPÖ will get a majority anyway. Citizen-Forum/Martin would probably get 8-10%, keeping the SPÖ below or around 30% and the FPÖ away from 20%. Another possible coalition would be SPÖ/Greens/Citizen-Forum.

New numbers on voting eligibility: On Election Day, about 6.35 Mio. people aged 16+ will be able to vote, that's 76% of Austria's total population (8.36 Mio.) and 85% of Austrian citizens (7.48 Mio.) In recent polls, about 80% said they are certain to vote. Therfore turnout will likely increase compared with 2006 and will be between 80% and 85%.

Also: The costs of the election are estimated at 50-60 Mio. € (80-96 Mio. $)

[Tender Branson]

News:

The Liberals will definitely be on the ballot, but they are still searching a front-runner.

The front-runner of the BZÖ in 2004, has run over a policeman after a EURO 08 game and was charged with assault. Therefore they`ll probably need a new front-runner as well. Someone that is not Jörg Haider, because he'll focus on the 2009 state elections. Hopefully they get kicked out of parliament now.

HP Martin has ruled out a run with his own list or a fusion with the Citizen-Forum. He will focus on the 2009 EU Parliamentary Elections instead.

Also, the Pirate Party and the Communists will try to get on the ballot.

[Bono]

Also, the Pirate Party and the Communists will try to get on the ballot.

LOL

[Tender Branson]

A recent poll by OGM has shown that Austrian CEO's and managers favor the parties of the Center-Right by 74%-26% (what a surprise ... ):

OGM interviewed 500 CEO's and managers in companies with more than 20 employees.

The results:

ÖVP - 53% (2006: 60%)
FPÖ - 20% (2006: 10%)
Greens - 14% (2006: 12%)
SPÖ - 12% (2006: 17%)
BZÖ - 1% (2006: 1%)

But most of the respondents favored an ÖVP-Green coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Today, there's also a new Ö24/Gallup poll:

ÖVP - 26%
SPÖ - 24%
FPÖ - 19%
Greens - 16%
Citizen Forum - 6%
BZÖ - 5%
Liberals - 2%
Others - 2%